For a student with a given
objective probability of college completion, white teachers are less optimistic when the student in question is black.
Grübler et al. (2002) and Allen et al. (2001) argued that good scientific arguments preclude
determining objective probabilities or the likelihood that future events will occur.
Not surprisingly, large gaps in
the objective probability of college completion exist by the time students reach the 10th grade and these would need to be addressed with earlier interventions.
To what extent does the gap in teacher expectations reflect real differences in
the objective probability of college completion?
You can not start out from «ignorance» and then use the data to determine
the objective probability of anything.