Sentences with phrase «observational estimates»

This is the most relevant case for comparison with observational estimates, as the effect of individual forcings can not be observed in the latter.

Results from key studies on observational estimates of ECS (in °C) from instrumental data, individual volcanic eruptions, data for the last millennium, and simulations of the LGM.

are actually for RFari, but that equals the purely observational estimate for AFari (− 0.4 W / m ² in 2011), so they can stand.

TCR is not that uncertain and a growing body of research focused on observational estimates of TCR shows is isn't likely larger than 1.2 - 1.4 C, indicating transient climate feedbacks are small.

I showed that using the best observational estimates of forcing given in the SOD, and the most recent observational OHU estimates, a heat balance approach estimates ECS to be 1.6 — 1.7 °C — well below the «likely» range of 2 — 4.5 °C that the SOD claims (in Section 10.8.2.5) is supported by the observational evidence, and little more than half the best estimate of circa 3 °C it gives.

[8] Brient and Schneider justify using a divergence measure based on the similarity of the model and observational estimate PDFs on the basis that «they are estimated from time series of the same length L so that their sampling variability can be expected to be equal if a [statistical] model is adequate».

In an effort to gauge the external validity of our lottery estimates, we computed observational estimates that rely solely on statistical controls, with separate effects for schools in and out of the lottery sample.

In this figure you can see by looking at the blue «least squares line» that, «on average,» as a simulated teacher's value - added estimate increases the average of a teacher's observational estimate increases.

«We may never completely reconcile the divergent observational estimates of temperature changes in the tropical troposphere.

Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3, 4,5,6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity.

Remarkably, the Marvel et al. reworked observational estimates for TCR and ECS are, taking the averages for the three studies, substantially higher than the equivalent figures for the GISS - E2 - R model itself, despite the model exhibiting faster warming than the real climate system.

Mr. Lewis tells me that the latest observational estimates of the effect of aerosols (such as sulfurous particles from coal smoke) find that they have much less cooling effect than thought when the last IPCC report was written.

Although there exist observational estimates of the SAMOC, the decadal and multi-decadal variability of the SAMOC and its influence on climate and weather can not be assessed due to its short temporal record.

The only global observational estimate previously made of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean was a snapshot in time for 1994 made by Sabine et al. (2002).

When considering this part of the sea ice — volume time series, one can estimate a negative trend of − 1,120 km3 year − 1 with a standard deviation of + / -2,353 km3 year − 1 from combined model and observational estimates for October — November 1996 — 2007.

The conclusion — taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal - average global temperature between 1871 - 80 and 2002 - 11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake — is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6 ° -1.7 °C (2.9 ° -3.1 °F).

The global increase in ocean heat content during the period 1993 to 2003 in two ocean models constrained by assimilating altimetric sea level and other observations (Carton et al., 2005; Köhl et al., 2006) is considerably larger than these observational estimates.

It's noteworthy, however, that the observational estimates of pilot high school treatment effects are larger for schools used in the lottery study than for other pilot schools.

Where observational and lottery estimates are close, the observational estimates seem likely to be informative for non — lottery - sample schools as well.

On the other hand, the observational estimates for charter schools that contribute to the lottery study are larger than the observational estimates for other charter schools (though the latter are still positive and significantly different from 0).

We test the internal validity of the CREDO model by comparing its estimates to those produced by an instrumental variables (IV) approach, finding that a rigorous IV method produces similar results to CREDO's observational estimates

She designed simulations (2) and (3) to illustrate the plausibility of the situation suggested next (as written into Audrey's post prior) about potential bias in both value - added and observational estimates:

If there is some bias present in value - added estimates, and some bias present in the observational estimates... perhaps this is why these low correlations are observed.

Yet the 10 to 90 percentile for the trends among the models is 0.036 — 0.35 °C / dec — a much larger range (+ / - 0.19 °C / dec)-- and one, needless to say, that encompasses all the observational estimates.

Note that at the time, there had not been any observational estimate of that change (the first was in 2000 (Levitus et al, 2000)-RRB-, giving yet another example of a successful climate model prediction.

Morice, C. P., Kennedy, J. J., Rayner, N. A. & Jones, P. D. Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: the HadCRUT4 dataset.