Sentences with phrase «observational estimates of»

Although there exist observational estimates of the SAMOC, the decadal and multi-decadal variability of the SAMOC and its influence on climate and weather can not be assessed due to its short temporal record.

Brient & Schneider's results in fact change little if a more reasonable method of weighting models that does not penalise differences in the uncertainty between the model and observational estimates of the TLC reflection — SST relationship is used.

«Dessler's study is just showing that the observational estimates of ECS are plausibly estimates from the bottom of the spread and that the difference between observational and ensemble based estimates is plausibly the effects of internal variability on the observational estimates.»

Unfortunately, ten years ago observational estimates of aerosol forcing were poor, so Gregory used a GCM - derived estimate.

I showed that using the best observational estimates of forcing given in the SOD, and the most recent observational OHU estimates, a heat balance approach estimates ECS to be 1.6 — 1.7 °C — well below the «likely» range of 2 — 4.5 °C that the SOD claims (in Section 10.8.2.5) is supported by the observational evidence, and little more than half the best estimate of circa 3 °C it gives.

The conclusion — taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal - average global temperature between 1871 - 80 and 2002 - 11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake — is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6 ° -1.7 °C (2.9 ° -3.1 °F).

Various mechanisms have been proposed for this hiatus in global warming3, 4,5,6, but their relative importance has not been quantified, hampering observational estimates of climate sensitivity.

Given the short period of the records are the observational estimates of the Hurst exponents stable enough to be used as a test for the models?

B) Im interested because the temperature record is important to observational estimates of climate sensitivity.

Observational estimates of climate sensitivity from changes in the rate of ocean heat uptake and comparison to CMIP5 models.

As a result, the study would provide little evidence that historical period observational estimates of ECS have been biased low in relation to effective climate sensitivity.

- that new estimates of aerosol cooling are low - that new estimates of Ocean heat uptake are low - that therefore observational estimates of climate sensitivity may prove low - that observational estimates are now good enough that they should be preferred over models - that warming below 2C is net beneficial

TCR is not that uncertain and a growing body of research focused on observational estimates of TCR shows is isn't likely larger than 1.2 - 1.4 C, indicating transient climate feedbacks are small.

«We may never completely reconcile the divergent observational estimates of temperature changes in the tropical troposphere.

For example, observational estimates of the effects of attending a charter middle school in the lottery study are 0.17 σ for ELA and 0.32 σ for math.

It's noteworthy, however, that the observational estimates of pilot high school treatment effects are larger for schools used in the lottery study than for other pilot schools.

It is difficult to digitise the Figure 8.18 values for years affected by volcanic eruptions, so I have also adjusted the widely - used RCP4.5 forcings dataset to reflect the Section 7.5.3 observational estimate of current aerosol forcing, using Figure 8.18 and Table 8.7 data to update the projected RCP4.5 forcings for 2007 — 2011 where appropriate.

, which are in fact the excess of AFari + aci over RFari, need adjusting (scaling down by (0.73 − 0.4) / (0.9 − 0.4), all years) to obtain a forcing dataset based on a purely observational estimate of aerosol AF rather than the IPCC's composite estimate.

Not exact matches

Of note, our point estimate for premature death exceeds the annual number of U.S. deaths from cervical cancer (3,909), asthma (3,361), or influenza (3,055).45 If a randomized control trial were to demonstrate similar effects to those reported in the observational literature, the «number needed to treat» with optimal breastfeeding to prevent a case of maternal hypertension would be 35, to prevent a maternal MI would be 135, and to prevent a case of breast cancer would be 38Of note, our point estimate for premature death exceeds the annual number of U.S. deaths from cervical cancer (3,909), asthma (3,361), or influenza (3,055).45 If a randomized control trial were to demonstrate similar effects to those reported in the observational literature, the «number needed to treat» with optimal breastfeeding to prevent a case of maternal hypertension would be 35, to prevent a maternal MI would be 135, and to prevent a case of breast cancer would be 38of U.S. deaths from cervical cancer (3,909), asthma (3,361), or influenza (3,055).45 If a randomized control trial were to demonstrate similar effects to those reported in the observational literature, the «number needed to treat» with optimal breastfeeding to prevent a case of maternal hypertension would be 35, to prevent a maternal MI would be 135, and to prevent a case of breast cancer would be 38of maternal hypertension would be 35, to prevent a maternal MI would be 135, and to prevent a case of breast cancer would be 38of breast cancer would be 385.

The performance of different propensity - score methods for estimating differences in proportions (risk differences or absolute risk reductions) in observational studies.

Using the Great Barrier Reef as their study case, they estimated the evolution of the region over the last 14,000 years and showed that (1) high sediment loads from catchments erosion prevented coral growth during the early phase of sea level rise and favoured deep offshore sediment deposition; (2) how the fine balance between climate, sea level, and margin physiography enabled coral reefs to thrive under limited shelf sedimentation rates at 6,000 years before present; and, (3) how over the last 3,000 years, the decrease of accommodation space led to the lateral extension of coral reefs consistent with available observational data.

The project, called Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), uses observational data — including ocean surface topography, surface wind stress, temperature, salinity profiles and velocity data — collected between June 2005 and December 2007.

James O'Malley, PhD and former post-doc, Jaeun Choi, PhD recently had their paper «Estimating the causal effect of treatment in observational studies with survival time end points and unmeasured confounding» published in The Journal of the Royal Statistics Society; Applied Statistics.

Previous observational studies estimate that 60 to 90 percent of bariatric surgery patients who were obese and had type 2 diabetes were later able to maintain normal blood glucose levels without medication.

The team compared the scattering coefficient obtained by their approach with the scattering coefficient measured on board the aircraft and found good agreement between the estimated and measured scattering coefficients for a wide range of observational conditions.

We estimate that ~ 35 % of KOIs are false positives due to contamination, when performing a first - order correction for observational bias.

[11] Asteroseismic analyses that incorporate the tight observational constraints on the stellar parameters for α Cen A and / or B have yielded age estimates of 7000484999999999999 ♠ 4.85 ± 0.5 Gyr, [7] 7000500000000000000 ♠ 5.0 ± 0.5 Gyr, [27] 5.2 — 7.1 Gyr, [28] 6.4 Gyr, [29] and 7000652000000000000 ♠ 6.52 ± 0.3 Gyr.

«Although the different estimates of OHCA (ocean heat content anomaly) produce seemingly different estimates of interannual ocean heating rate variability, these differences are all within the range of observational uncertainty.

«About four percent of solar - type stars are in quadruple systems, which is up from previous estimates because observational techniques are steadily improving,» said co-author Andrei Tokovinin of the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory in Chile.

The total of -0.7 W / m ^ 2 is the same as the best observational (satellite) total aerosol adjusted forcing estimate given in the leaked Second Order Draft of AR5 WG1, which includes cloud lifetime (2nd indirect) and other effects.

The visualization covers the period June 2005 to December 2007 and is based on a synthesis of a numerical model with observational data, created by a NASA project called Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, or ECCO for short.

The observational and lottery - based analyses of pilot middle schools both produce negative estimates in the sample that includes lagged scores.

In an effort to gauge the external validity of our lottery estimates, we computed observational estimates that rely solely on statistical controls, with separate effects for schools in and out of the lottery sample.

This investigation produces estimates remarkably similar to the lottery - based estimates of charter effects when carried out in the sample of charter schools that have lotteries, lending credence to the observational analysis.

Lottery and observational estimates are similar when estimated using the same set of charter schools.

«It is only when these important data sources [e.g., VAM estimates and observational data] are considered together that we begin to see the full picture of an individual's performance and can determine how much our teachers and principals are contributing to our students» learning.»

However, what we have seen since 2009, when states began to adopt what were then (and in many ways still are) viewed as America's «new and improved» or «strengthened» teacher evaluation systems, is that for 70 % of America's teachers, these teacher evaluation systems are still based only on the observational indicators being used prior, because for only 30 % of America's teachers are value - added estimates calculable.

Evaluations in years one and two (1) assessed preschool quality using two observational measures, (2) measured children's gains in receptive vocabulary, literacy, math and executive functions, and (3) compared gains of SPP attendees to those of a non-equivalent comparison group to estimate SPP impacts on children's learning and development.

She designed simulations (2) and (3) to illustrate the plausibility of the situation suggested next (as written into Audrey's post prior) about potential bias in both value - added and observational estimates:

She used R (i.e., a free software environment for statistical computing and graphics) to simulate correlation scatterplots (see Figures below) to illustrate three unique situations: (1) a simulation where there are two indicators (e.g., teacher value - added and observational estimates plotted on the x and y axes) that have a correlation of r = 0.28 (the highest correlation coefficient at issue in the aforementioned post); (2) a simulation exploring the impact of negative bias and a moderate correlation on a group of teachers; and (3) another simulation with two indicators that have a non-linear relationship possibly induced or caused by bias.

But since there are reasonable estimates of the real world GMT, it is a fair enough question to ask why the models have more spread than the observational uncertainty.

One reason why these estimates keep getting revised is that there is a continual updating of the observational analyses that are used — as new data are included, as non-climatic factors get corrected for, and models include more processes.

In short, irrespective of what observational dataset was used — it's likely that an estimate of forced response made in 2014 would be biased cold, which on its own would translate to an overestimate of the available budget of about 40GtC.

Even if one were to stipulate all of the ostensible «errors» Lewis claims, the only way he is actually able to justify his claim of disagreement with observations» ICS is by throwing out the observational ICS estimate used in the paper in favor of once he likes and obviously likes simply because of their low values.

Internal variability as estimated from observations can't explain sea - ice loss Superposition of a linear trend and internal variability explains sea - ice loss Observational sea - ice record shows no signs of self - acceleration

We ultimately face a question of what we trust more: our estimate of our cumulative emissions to date combined with our full knowledge of how much warming that might imply, or an estimate of how warm the system was in 2014 which is subject to error due to observational uncertainty and natural variability.

Whether you are gullible enough to accept the figures as accurate depends on how much credibility you put in the multitude of observational measurements taken by different methods over many decades by diverse groups of researchers that form a strong consilience of mutually supporting evidence for the validity of the estimates and the possible errors.

use of ocean heat uptake — which amounts to only ~ 86 % of total heat uptake — as a measure of total heat uptake despite the observational studies Marvel et al. critique using estimates that included non-ocean heat uptake;

Since we can not do controlled experiments, climate science is an OBSERVATIONAL science we can't put the climate in a beaker, we can only look at past temperatures and past forcings to CONSTRAIN our estimate of sensitivity.

Using models that don't do what you need to say sensitivity is even higher than models estimate, so that warmunists can ignore all the observational effective sensitivity estimates, smacks of illogical desperation.