Sentences with phrase «observational trends in»

As a 4th year geography student I have read into covered observational trends in a fair bit for my course at the University of Bristol.

Not exact matches

But it's important to note that the NCEP re-analysis and other re-analyses (e.g. ERA40) are not regarded as being appropriate for trend studies due to changes in observational systems (new satellites coming in etc).

What is missing is the more quantitative information on aerosol radiative properties, geographical distributions, trends, and observational results (including uncertainties) that can be found in the IPCC AR4 Report.

Spend some time preparing for the feedback session by looking for trends and correlations in both the observational data and the Kickboard data.

Kickboard Coaches will help you institute a powerful, yet supportive, observation and feedback cycle that uses student behavior data trends combined with rubric - based observational data to drive continuous improvement in classrooms.

But it's important to note that the NCEP re-analysis and other re-analyses (e.g. ERA40) are not regarded as being appropriate for trend studies due to changes in observational systems (new satellites coming in etc).

And global mean temperature trends are quite sensitive to observational products, masking, forcings in the models, and initial condition sensitivity.

It may be more problematic studying trends in the ERA40 data, due to huge improvements in the observational platforms between 1958 and now.

In fact our real argument turned around is that we reject a model amplification of 1.2 and even 1.0 over land since that is inconsistent with the observational analysis of observed ratios of surface and lower troposphere trends.

Here we analyze a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans - basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centers were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea - level rise.

However, during the mid-2000s, with several fewer years in the observational record, the trend in Antarctic sea ice extent was reported to be considerably smaller and statistically indistinguishable from zero.

Some observational uncertainty in early 20th - century trend (Sections 9.3.3.2, 9.4.1.4; Figures 9.4, 9.5).»

Using the SFZ 2008 tar file archive data in combination with the deep - ocean diagnostic model and control - run data used in SFZ 2008, and a deep - ocean diagnostic observational trend calculated from the Levitus et al 2005 dataset, I can produce broadly similar climate parameter PDFs to those in the Forest 2006 main results (Figure 2: GSOLSV, κsfc = 16, uniform prior), with a peak climate sensitivity around S = 3.

Projections are aligned in the graph so that they start (in 1990 and 2000, respectively) on the linear trend line of the (adjusted) observational data.

«despite increased observational uncertainty in the pre-satellite era, the trend in [Arctic sea ice extent] over this longer period [1953 — 2010] is more likely to be representative of the anthropogenically forced component.»

There has been no detectable trend in hurricane frequency over the twentieth century when you account for increased observational capabilities through time (Landsea, 2007).

As of this writing, there is observational and modeling evidence that: 1) both annular modes are sensitive to month - to - month and year - to - year variability in the stratospheric flow (see section on Stratosphere / troposphere coupling, below); 2) both annular modes have exhibited long term trends which may reflect the impact of stratospheric ozone depletion and / or increased greenhouse gases (see section on Climate Change, below); and 3) the NAM responds to changes in the distribution of sea - ice over the North Atlantic sector.

Also, please provide observational evidence that the 200 - year trend in pH decline -LRB--0.07, or -0.000035 / yr)(«ocean acidification») is too fast for marine species to adapt to... since that's what you believe.

In a new study, Box and a team of researchers describe the decline in ice sheet reflectivity and the reasons behind it, noting that if current trends continue, the area of ice that melts during the summer season is likely to expand to cover all of Greenland for the first time in the observational record, rather than just the lower elevations at the edges of the continent, as is the case todaIn a new study, Box and a team of researchers describe the decline in ice sheet reflectivity and the reasons behind it, noting that if current trends continue, the area of ice that melts during the summer season is likely to expand to cover all of Greenland for the first time in the observational record, rather than just the lower elevations at the edges of the continent, as is the case todain ice sheet reflectivity and the reasons behind it, noting that if current trends continue, the area of ice that melts during the summer season is likely to expand to cover all of Greenland for the first time in the observational record, rather than just the lower elevations at the edges of the continent, as is the case todain the observational record, rather than just the lower elevations at the edges of the continent, as is the case today.

The strongest support for the upward trend in air - borne particulates derives from the failure of observational data to support our understanding of the CO2 effect.

«In summary, given the lack of observational robustness of minimum temperatures, the fact that the shallow nocturnal boundary layer does not reflect the heat content of the deeper atmosphere, and problems global models have in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.&raquIn summary, given the lack of observational robustness of minimum temperatures, the fact that the shallow nocturnal boundary layer does not reflect the heat content of the deeper atmosphere, and problems global models have in replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.&raquin replicating nocturnal boundary layers, it is suggested that measures of large - scale climate change should only use maximum temperature trends.»

The fact that our pf ′ values (even for 30 - year TLT trends) are sensitive to the addition of a single year of observational data indicates the dangers of ignoring the effects of interannual variability on signal estimates, as was done, for example, in Douglass et al. [2007].

For the thirty - year period 1979 to 2009 the observational datasets find in the tropical lower troposphere (LT) a warming trend of 0.07 °C to 0.15 °C per decade.

For the thirty - year period 1979 to 2009 (sometimes updated through 2010 or 2011), the various observational datasets find, in the tropical lower troposphere (LT, see Chapter 2 for definition), an average warming trend ranging from 0.07 °C to 0.15 °C per decade.

Because the differences between the various observational estimates are largely systematic and structural (Chapter 2; Mears et al., 2011), the uncertainty in the observed trends can not be reduced by averaging the observations as if the differences between the datasets were purely random.

He also «aligned the Colorado observational results so that their trend line is zero in 1990, in order that they can be compared directly with the V&R 2009 results.»

The CMIP3 models show a 1979 — 2010 tropical SST trend of 0.19 °C per decade in the multi-model mean, much larger than the various observational trend estimates ranging from 0.10 °C to 0.14 °C per decade (including the 95 % confidence interval, (Fu et al., 2011)-RRB-.

9.4.1.3.2 Upper tropospheric temperature trends Most climate model simulations show a larger warming in the tropical troposphere than is found in observational datasets (e.g., (McKitrick et al., 2010)(Santer et al., 2012)-RRB-.

Nevertheless, almost all model ensemble members show a warming trend in both LT and MT larger than observational estimates (McKitrick et al., 2010; Po - Chedley and Fu, 2012; Santer et al., 2012).

His most highly cited papers are in observational studies of long term variability and trends in atmospheric water vapor and clouds.

Finally, unlike precipitation, for which long and reliable historical records exist in some parts of the world, records for other aspects of weather are too short to detect trends or contain observational biases that render trends meaningless.

«However, the global mean SST is 0.06 °C warmer after 1980 in ERSST.v4 because of the buoy adjustments (not shown) and there are therefore impacts on the long - term trends compared to applying no adjustment to account for the change in observational platforms.»

Note that trends starting in 1997 and 1998 are most biased by the change in observational method.

The simulations also produce an average increase of 2.0 °C in twenty - first century global temperature, demonstrating that recent observational trends are not sufficient to discount predictions of substantial climate change and its significant and widespread impacts.

We can see that the change in observational methods will tend to suppress temperature trends starting in the mid 1990's and running to the present.

A low confidence in climate attribution results mainly from lack of monitoring, lack of a clear precipitation response, and inconsistency between the direction of reported trends and trends documented in global observational products over the default period.

According to Stone, cases where the link between human - generated greenhouse gas emissions and local warming trends were weak were often due to the fact that the climate observational record was insufficient in those regions to build a clear picture about what has been happening over the past several decades.

The observational and model results broadly support our hypothesis, but suggest that further work is needed to diagnose the causes of the high - latitude circulation trends in models and observations.

The discrepancies were found because the models over-predict warming in the tropical troposphere, and robust trend estimators indicate that the difference is statistically highly significant, so that the models on average predict a trend that is significantly higher than any individual observational series or all observational series averaged together.

The very high significance levels of model — observation discrepancies in LT and MT trends that were obtained in some studies (e.g., Douglass et al., 2008; McKitrick et al., 2010) thus arose to a substantial degree from using the standard error of the model ensemble mean as a measure of uncertainty, instead of the ensemble standard deviation or some other appropriate measure for uncertainty arising from internal climate variability... Nevertheless, almost all model ensemble members show a warming trend in both LT and MT larger than observational estimates (McKitrick et al., 2010; Po - Chedley and Fu, 2012; Santer et al., 2013).

Observational and numerical evidence of a poleward shift in the Southern Hemisphere middle latitude jetstream (a positive trend in the Southern Annular mode) in response to Antarctic ozone depletion (Gillett and Thompson, 2003; Arblaster and Meehl, 2006; Son et al., 2010; Polvani et al., 2011; McLandress et al., 2011; Thompson et al., 2011).

In Gavin's case, stuff like microclimate siting issues in the GISS raw observational inputs he then homogenizes into global warming trendIn Gavin's case, stuff like microclimate siting issues in the GISS raw observational inputs he then homogenizes into global warming trendin the GISS raw observational inputs he then homogenizes into global warming trends.

Laurence Hecht writes: This review in the 19 Jun 2015 issue of Science reported solid observational evidence (not proxies and modeling à la Rahmstorf and Mann) of a 10 - year trend of decline in the Atlantic Conveyor.

If you don't like the IPCC's organized efforts to compile and categorize the observational evidence for unnatural normalised trends in climate, then just freaking use Google.

Thick «X» marks indicate the observational linear trends, while thin marks represent the trends in historical ensembles from the five CMIP5 models having more than 10 members.

In fact urban heat island effect is clearly seen — the ground based observational trend takes into account primarily urban heat island effect and not much of the rural cold island effect [satellite data takes in to account bothIn fact urban heat island effect is clearly seen — the ground based observational trend takes into account primarily urban heat island effect and not much of the rural cold island effect [satellite data takes in to account bothin to account both].

Using data from 2,254 locations that they obtained from the Chinese National Meteorological Information Center, the eight researchers examined trends in both the occurrence of hail days (frequency) and the mean size of hail (intensity) over the period 1980 - 2015»... «Ni et al. conclude that these observational changes «imply a weakened [frequency and] intensity of hailstorms in China in recent decades.»

Efforts under way by climate researchers — including reanalyses of existing tropical cyclone databases (20, 21)-- may mitigate the problems in applying the present observational tropical cyclone databases to trend analyses to answer the important question of how humankind may (or may not) be changing the frequency of extreme tropical cyclones.

As I've noted above, Judith doesn't appear to show any like - for - like comparison which suggests inconsistency between the reanalysis and observational data (keeping with the convention of separating the two in these terms despite what I've said above) for recent upper and lower ocean comparative trends.

However, although this trend appeared in the observational data, it isn't seen in all the reanalyses or regional models, leaving open a possibility that the trend is an artifact of some sort (instrumental changes, urbanization etc.).