Few detection studies have explicitly considered the influence of
observational uncertainty on near - surface temperature changes.
We recently published a paper exploring the impact of
observational uncertainty on an attribution analysis.
Not exact matches
The form of the Jeffreys» prior depends
on both the relationship of the observed variable (s) to the parameter (s) and the nature of the
observational errors and other
uncertainties, which determine the form of the likelihood function.
What is missing is the more quantitative information
on aerosol radiative properties, geographical distributions, trends, and
observational results (including
uncertainties) that can be found in the IPCC AR4 Report.
However, the recommendation to eat fruit and vegetables to prevent chronic diseases is mainly based
on observational epidemiological studies, which leaves much
uncertainty regarding the causal mechanism of this association.
Here we quantify the effects of key parametric
uncertainties and
observational constraints
on thermosteric SLR projections using an Earth system model with a dynamic three - dimensional ocean, which provides a mechanistic representation of deep ocean processes and heat uptake.
These recent studies have broken important new ground, but they largely neglect
uncertainties surrounding thermal expansion (thermosteric SLR) and / or
observational constraints
on ocean heat uptake.
The first part of this sentence seems to demand a high level of
uncertainty with respect to the later assertion, especially when one considers that the work seems to be based
on 4 years of
observational data, the post-2007 ice decline.
However, Hegerl et al. (2001) show that inclusion of
observational sampling
uncertainty has relatively little effect
on detection results and that random instrumental error has even less effect.
So, while the environment that produces precipitation is affected by the
observational analysis, precipitation relies
on the model physics, and has significant
uncertainty.
Acting
on uncertainty can and will kill people; wise decision makers will not and can not make such decisions unless and until they have «engineering» hard numbers backed by uncontested
observational data.
We applied the same method used in the
observational analysis
on general circulation model data to decrease the statistical
uncertainty at the expense of an increased systematic
uncertainty.
These calculations, based
on ERBE and CERES
observational data, are themselves subject to considerable
uncertainty, but are consistent with a positive imbalance (more incoming than outgoing energy) that would be expected from greenhouse gas forcing.
This study addresses the challenge by undertaking a formal detection and attribution analysis of SCE changes based
on several
observational datasets with different structural characteristics, in order to account for the substantial
observational uncertainty.
One hundred samples from a 2,276 - member ensemble were selected to represent
observational constraints
on the model's parametric
uncertainties.