However, an inconsistency remains for the tropical troposphere, where
observations and model results continue to be in contention.
Ice shelf disintegration by plate bending and hydro - fracture: Satellite
observations and model results of the 2008 Wilkins ice shelf break - ups.
But recent
observations and model results done in the context of the annular modes suggest the coupling is two - way.
We have learned that data access and archival of climate
observation and modeling results needs to be better communicated and more transparent.
Not exact matches
By validating
model results against geological
observations, the study indicates that changes in runoff, sea level
and wave energy have profoundly affected the past evolution of the Great Barrier Reef not only in regard to reefs evolution but also sediment fate from source - to - sink.
Much of this research builds on the past work of the team members,
and the
modeling results help put together some of the
observations that seemed contradictory.
Under the assumptions of their
model, the team quantified the dynamics all over the exposed ocular surface,
and the
results agreed well with in vivo
observations of the tear film gained from fluorescence imaging.
«Our
results are based on a realistic
modelling of the accretion of gas onto the black holes,
and of the radiation they emit, which is compatible with current astronomical
observations.
By comparing the
models to recent
observations of clusters in the Milky Way galaxy
and beyond, the
results show that Advanced LIGO (Laser Interferometer Gravitational - Wave Observatory) could eventually see more than 100 binary black hole mergers per year.
The
results of existing experiments have varied widely,
and they don't align with predictions of olivine strength from geophysical
models and observations.
In February, Australian
and American researchers who compared ocean
and climate
modeling results with weather
observations published findings in Nature Climate Change advancing earlier studies that explored the oscillation's global influence.
Faced with such ignorance of the nature of dark matter, astronomers try inputting different
models of the dark matter into the simulations
and see if the
results match the
observations.
Model results and observations both indicate warming of the world ocean from 1955 to 2003.
Observations of gravitational lensing at that time already hinted the presence of dark energy, but both due to the small sample size
and large uncertainty in the theoretical
modeling of lensing rates the
result was not widely accepted.
«However, even in very high resolution
models, there can be large differences between
model results and observations,» said Ma.
For the earlier generation of
models,
results are based on the archived output from control runs (specifically, the first 30 years, in the case of temperature,
and the first 20 years for the other fields),
and for the recent generation
models,
results are based on the 20th - century simulations with climatological periods selected to correspond with
observations.
Then they tested the
model results using the comprehensive ground
and aircraft measurements gathered during the 2006 Megacity Initiative: Local
and Global Research
Observations in Mexico City.
To get their
results the researchers used sophisticated ice sheet
and climate
models and verified their
results with independent geological
observations from the oceans off Antarctica.
Professor of Economics
and Research Chair in Energy, Ecology
and Prosperity at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy Dr. Ross McKitrick discusses the wide disparities between the expected
results of climate
models and real - life
observations, during an in - depth interview for The New Criterion by Ben Weingarten
Based on
model experiments, it has been suggested that errors
resulting from the highly inhomogeneous distribution of ocean
observations in space
and time (see Appendix 5.
Minschwaner, K.,
and A.E. Dessler, 2004: Water vapor feedback in the tropical upper troposphere:
model results and observations.
The effort uses innovative ARM radar
observations from the MC3E field campaign to evaluate a series of high - resolution simulations, which
results in an improved understanding of cloud transitions
and how to diagnose these transitions in
models.
Another approach uses the response of climate
models, most often simple climate models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
models, most often simple climate
models or Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
models or Earth System
Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings and climate parameters that yield results consistent with observations (Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al.,
Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs, Table 8.3) to explore the range of forcings
and climate parameters that yield
results consistent with
observations (Andronova
and Schlesinger, 2001; Forest et al., 2002; Harvey
and Kaufmann, 2002; Knutti et al., 2002, 2003; Forest et al., 2006).
The photodetector array camera
and spectrometer (PACS) aboard the Herschel Space Observatory allows imaging
observations in the far infrared at unprecedented resolution, i.e. at better than 6» to 12» over the wavelength range of 60 -LCB- \ mu -RCB- m to 210 -LCB- \ mu -RCB- m. Together with the
results from ground - based
observations, these spatially resolved data can be
modelled to determine the nature of the debris
and its evolution more reliably than would be possible from unresolved data alone.
Excluding participants who reported a doctor diagnosis of depression at each baseline strengthened the association (
Model 4 for CMD after 5 years, Person
observations = 10944; highest vs. lowest tertile OR; 1.25; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.50; P for trend = 0.02, Supplementary Table S2)
and exclusion of person
observations with extremely high sugar intakes did not affect the
results.
And in all 8
models the point estimates suggest that a standard deviation improvement in classroom
observation or student survey
results is associated with less than a.1 standard deviation increase in test score gains.
As Director, Ms. White
modeled best - practices with managers in classroom
observations and teacher coaching conversations, maintained key district
and community relationships,
and coached corps members to diagnose needs based on student progress,
resulting in a cohort of first - year English teachers «significantly exceeding growth» on Common Core - aligned state assessments.
It's something of an abstract concept, but with real world implications,
and the universality of such physical
models, based on things like radiative balance, atmospheric composition
and density, distance from the local Sun, etc., is a very strong argument in favor of general acceptance of the
results of climate
models and observations on Earth.
The common EOF method extracts identical spatial pattern in the
model results and the
observations,
and utilizes time series of weights describing their evolution in time.
Regarding all these hypotheticals of Earth - ssytem timescale feedbacks, etc - before
results are brought forward with high confidence
and reach a level of minimal academic disagreement, they should be understood physically, be exhibited in a range of
models from simple to complex, begin to emerge in
observations against natural variability, are shown to be robust to methodological choices
and interpretation,
and are borne out paleoclimatically.
In both of these cases,
models produce very disparate
results, the theory is not yet fully developed
and observations are ambiguous.
I talked only about the topic of this post, which is: the mismatch betweem
model results and observations,
and it's implication for
model uncertainty (since the mismatch can not be attributed to
observation errors).
However, we have addressed the criticisms
and have shown that the
results remain — especially the profound disconnect between
models and observations.
Model results and observations both indicate warming of the world ocean from 1955 to 2003.
With the latest round of
modelling results now having been performed
and archived for the IPCC 4th Assessment Report, the time is appropriate to revisit the question with more up - to - date
models and observations.
However, we know that
modeling results can not prove or disprove real
observations because
modeling always assumes significant simplification
and should be validated with observational data, not vice versa.
A series of sensitivity tests show that our detection
results are robust to observational data coverage change, interpolation methods, influence of natural climate variability on
observations,
and different
model sampling (see Supplementary Information).
These
models, with the
resulting feedbacks, mimick
observations and are consistent with physics
and are therefore useful tools in trying to understand both what is currently happening
and what will happen in the future.
Miskolczi has taken this approach by writing yet another incoherent paper where inaccurate empirical
observations and approximate properties of
model calculations are put together claiming that the
result is a new exact law of nature.
Consequently, short of waiting until after climate change has occurred, the best guide we have for judging
model reliability is to compare
model results with
observations of present
and past climates.Our lack of knowledge about the real climate makes it difficult to verify
models.
As you clearly know, nothing could be more important than understanding
and propagating error when evaluating the level of quantitative knowledge yielded by some experiment,
observation, or sequential calculation — including use of a
model to predict a
result.
The scientists, using computer
models, compared their
results with
observations and concluded that global average annual temperatures have been lower than they would otherwise have been because of the oscillation.
Proshutinsky, A. et al. including M. Steele
and J. Zhang, «Arctic Ocean study: Synthesis of
model results and observations», EOS, 40 (4), 2005.
These
observations, together with computer
model simulations
and historical climate reconstructions from ice cores, ocean sediments
and tree rings all provide strong evidence that the majority of the warming over the past century is a
result of human activities.
Overall, this
results in an impressively small
model spread around
observations over the historical record
and a relatively constrained spread for each of the individual future projections.
Data from in situ measurements made at high - altitude stations in the HKH region,
observations from satellitebased instruments,
and global climate
modeling study
results are discussed.
According to KNMI the
model results are comparable to other
observations of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
and ocean layer mixing over the past decade.
The method combines the
results of long - term atmospheric reanalyses downscaled with a stochastic statistical method
and homogenized station
observations to derive the meteorological forcing needed for hydrological
modeling.
This paper covers the historical experiments — comparing
model results from 850-2005 to
observations and proxy reconstructions — as well as some idealized experiments designed to measure metrics such as climate sensitivity, transient climate response,
and carbon cycle feedbacks.
My understanding is that the latest research on what PBL calls «Temperature trend versus UAH
results»
and I might call the «phantom hot - spot in the upper tropical troposphere» indicates that
observations currently invalidate climate
models.