Now that 2012 is over, it is time to update a comparison of simulations and
observations of global mean temperatures.
this page is an ongoing effort to compare
observations of global temperature with CMIP5 simulations assessed by the IPCC 5th Assessment Report.
What they did was constrain the Community Earth System Model with known ECS of 4.1 C (very high) to
observations of global temperature and two different estimates of ocean heat uptake in combination with an ocean model coupled to an atmosphere model to represent natural internal variability.
If one completely ignores any of the above data sets (whether they be direct measurements or proxies), there exist many disparate
observations of global warming ranging from the rise in sea level which threatens various nations» lands... which has been either minimal or non-detectable, as opposed to what the AGW fans have been telling us.
Indeed, it is true that the solar and volcanic influences are the most poorly estimated, especially early in the centuryand it is also true that
the observations of global average temperature are least well established during this period.
Essentially, it's the average cloud forcing error made by CMIP5 - level GCMs, when they were used to hindcast 20 years of satellite
observations of global cloud cover (1985 - 2005).
When we look at the distributions (e.g. data, 1st difference, 2nd difference) of
the observations of global temperature, and of modeled temperature, they are very different.
The observations of a global mean temperature «flat» with no linear trend since 1997 can not be discarded.
This will become evident soon as
observations of global average cloud height become available.
However, there is not compelling evidence that anthropogenic CO2 was sufficient to influence Earth's temperatures prior to 1950, i.e. «Climate model simulations that consider only natural solar variability and volcanic aerosols since 1750 — omitting observed increases in greenhouse gases — are able to fit
the observations of global temperatures only up until about 1950.»
««Climate model simulations that consider only natural solar variability and volcanic aerosols since 1750 — omitting observed increases in greenhouse gases — are able to fit
the observations of global temperatures only up until about 1950.»
These facts were enough for an NAS panel, including Christy, to publish a report Reconciling
Observations of Global Temperature Change which concluded that «Despite differences in temperature data, strong evidence exists to show that the warming of the Earth's surface is undoubtedly real, and surface temperatures in the past two decades have risen at a rate substantially greater than average for the past 100 years»
However, their report, «Reconciling
observations of global temperature change,» could not reconcile the disparity.
Reconciling
Observations of Global Temperature Change.
Given the level of denialism in the face of glacial mass loss, plummeting Arctic summer ice cover, progressive collapse of ice shelves that have been stable for 6000 to 10000 years, northward, upward, and seasonally earlier movements of ecosystems and other phenological changes, increasing Greenland ice melt, and all the other direct
observations of global warming, I think denialists will go to their graves believing it can't be happening.
Political and economic forces affecting energy use and fuel choice make it unlikely that the CO2 issue will have a major impact on energy policies until convincing
observations of the global warming are in hand.
From
his observations of the global art scene, he draws four notable trends that emerge from the «net effects» of complex communication within the art world: an East - West cultural retrenchment, Asian growth, the resurgence of the super-wealthy and the lingering incubation of new technologies.
Greenwald, T.J., G.L. Stephens, S.A. Christopher, and T.H.V. Haar, 1995:
Observations of the global characteristics and regional radiative effects of marine cloud liquid water.
So, what was predicted is not consistent with the on - going
observations of global climate.
They used a high - resolution ocean model that has been shown to do a good job of matching direct satellite
observations of the global ocean system.
I couldn't help chuckle over the fact that your point is identical to my own poorly expressed one that I base on
my observation of global water vapor animations over time.
Not exact matches
His entire speech hinged on the simple
observation that the addition
of carbon to the atmosphere was effectively a worldwide subsidy that had contributed to
global warming and prevented humanity from freeing itself from the fossil - fuel era.
With regard to the Fed's
observation on oil prices, Yellen said it is «one
of the most important developments shaping the
global outlook.»
This
observation is important because it highlights the potential for an evolving
global environment to complicate the challenge
of crafting economic policy, and in particular, monetary policy.
Perhaps it makes sense to conclude with the more general
observation that changes in the size
of global capital flows and the accompanying imbalances increase the importance
of sustaining the credibility
of monetary policy, because they increase the costs
of a loss
of credibility or a negative shock to credibility.
For Canadians, it is important that our political parties start discussing and debating the policy actions a «new» government should take to respond to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)
observation, that the
global economy, and therefore the Canadian economy, could be entering a long period
of economic stagnation, characterized by slow growth, high unemployment and increasing income inequality.
The reasons Costa Rica tops the IL
Global Retirement Index fall in line with these
observations, although IL offers more detail with an expanded set
of criteria.
Karyn Twaronite,
global diversity and inclusiveness officer at consulting and accounting firm EY, told Bloomberg that she had received hundreds
of emails from employees «raising concerns, thoughts and
observations» and «areas
of angst,» but also noted she was «hopeful, because there's so much dialogue.»
Communism, philosophically, is what comes after Capitalism if one is going along with Marxs thesis on the law
of motion for economies; he gave no time - table, nor no indication
of what this future form
of the economy would be like - it could be sometime in the middle
of this century, or it could be a millenia away; in his thesis, it is almost tautologically true; until then Marx expected Capitalism to succeed as a
global force - this was an earlier
observation of Hegel that foresaw that «trade» would become «world - historical» in its European form.
But completing the
global picture will require many types
of observation, including those from instruments on Earth, he adds.
«We need a
global space
observation system to be in place sooner than later,» says Jean - Yves Le Gall, the head
of CNES, France's space agency in Paris.
A
GLOBAL analysis
of lightning during hurricanes has bolstered
observations that the worst winds come a day after the bolts strike.
Previous research has suggested a connection between coal - burning and the Sahel drought, but this was the first study that used decades
of historical
observations to find that this drought was part
of a
global shift in tropical rainfall, and then used multiple climate models to determine why.
Its GOLD mission — short for
Global - scale
Observations of the Limb and Disk mission — is slated for launch January 25, the agency announced January 4.
Some researchers have proposed that these lava floods caused
global extinctions on Earth and that they affect climate change, says planetary geologist Alfred McEwen
of the University
of Arizona, head
of the Io
observation team.
By 2020, when the European Extremely Large Telescope is due to be completed, the country is expected to host 70 %
of the
global observation surface for large optical and infrared telescopes.
To address those and other questions, the TOAR research team has produced the first - ever
global - scale scientific assessment
of tropospheric ozone, based on all available surface
observations and the peer - reviewed literature.
The reports also identifies other challenges that impact sustained
observations, such as the declining investment in new technological development, increasing difficulty in retaining and replenishing the human resources associated with sustained ocean observing, and a decreasing number
of global and ocean - class research vessels.
This
global biological recordbased on daily
observations of ocean algae and land plants from NASAs Sea - viewing Wide Field -
of - View Sensor (SeaWiFS) missionwill enable scientists to study the fate
of atmospheric carbon, terrestrial plant productivity and the health
of the oceans food web.
«In contrast to the long tradition
of field guides authored by expert natural historians, Map
of Life draws on collective wisdom, amalgamating
global data sets
of species
observations from published sources and using a series
of modeling techniques to convert them into species range maps,» Goldsmith wrote.
«Advances in
global climate models and high quality ocean, atmospheric and land
observations are helping us push the frontiers
of snowpack prediction.»
Observations are continuing to monitor variability in the production rate, and to determine the
global gas production rate, as a function
of its distance from the sun.
Further
observations will be used to refine the
global map, to construct local and regional digital elevation models for scientific analysis and aid in assessment
of future landing sites, and to attempt to detect and characterize
global - scale seasonal variations.
Jim Butler, director
of NOAA's
Global Monitoring Division in Boulder, says that NOAA can not simply fold Keeling's CO2 stations into its own
observations budget, given that the value
of having two CO2 networks is scientific independence.
The observational data
of the study consisted
of nearly a million (990,301)
observations of 94 different bird species, and the results have now been published as part
of the international
Global Change Biology publication series.
In 2017, NASA is launching two missions to investigate this dynamic region: the Ionospheric Connection Explorer, or ICON, and
Global Observations of the Limb and Disk, or GOLD.
Two pieces examine how climate change is affecting marine biological systems: Schofield et al. (p. 1520) illustrate and discuss the role
of ocean -
observation techniques in documenting how marine ecosystems in the West Antarctic Peninsula region are evolving, and Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno (p. 1523) present a more
global view
of the ways in which marine ecosystems are being affected by rapid anthropogenic variations.
Our
observations are adding to a detailed picture
of the world's coral reefs, being pieced together online at a repository called the Catlin
Global Reef Record.
A new Columbia Engineering study, led by Pierre Gentine, associate professor
of earth and environmental engineering, analyzes
global satellite
observations and shows that vegetation alters climate and weather patterns by as much as 30 percent.
«Most climate models that incorporate vegetation are built on short - term
observations, for example
of photosynthesis, but they are used to predict long - term events,» said Bond - Lamberty, who works at the Joint
Global Change Research Institute, a collaboration between PNNL and the University
of Maryland in College Park, Md. «We need to understand forests in the long term, but forests change slowly and researchers don't live that long.»