There's a historic trend in that direction based on
observations over the last century or more.
Not exact matches
The key
observation here is the increase in ocean heat content
over the
last half
century (the figure below shows three estimates of the changes since 1955).
There's a lot in there, but, the authors write, the compilation of peer - reviewed scientific
observations and models together «tell an unambiguous story: the planet is warming, and
over the
last half
century, this warming has been driven primarily by human activity.»
Florida State University's James Elsner said ground data show every decade has been warmer than the
last since the middle of the 20th
century and satellite data - based
observations «show continued warming
over the past several decades.»
Overall the model means stick like glue to the
observations, giving an impression of near - perfect understanding not just of global but of regional climate change
over the
last century.
The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these
observations, implying the existence of this unknown amplifying mechanism.The cosmic ray - ionization mechanism is too weak to influence global concentrations of CCN or their change
over the
last century or during a solar cycle in any climatically significant way.
That panel's first assessment report in 1990 concluded that «the size of the warming
over the
last century is... of the same magnitude as natural climate variability» and that «the unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from
observations is not likely for a decade or more.»
Principally, there is paleo - climate data from previous quasi-equilibria like the
Last Glacial Maximum or Eocene; evidence from the instrumental trends since the 19th
Century; and climatological
observations that correlate to longer term responses (either in the mean, seasonally or
over interannual variations).