R. Gates, I'm curious to know why you think a paper about what happens in models of sea level into the future is much better than (or even has much to do with) a critique of a paper analysing empirical
observations over the recent past?
Not exact matches
Contrary to
recent blogosphere impressions, my close
observation of Steve and his campaign
over the
past two months has strengthened the conviction behind my endorsement.
«Contrary to
recent blogosphere impressions, my close
observation of Steve and his campaign
over the
past two months has strengthened the conviction behind my endorsement,» he said.
My condence is based on
recent developments in electronics and software, as well as on my own
observations of robots, computers and even insects, reptiles and other living things
over the
past 30 years.
Both the
observations of mass balance and the estimates based on temperature changes (Table 11.4) indicate a reduction of mass of glaciers and ice caps in the
recent past, giving a contribution to global - average sea level of 0.2 to 0.4 mm / yr
over the last hundred years.
Finds that
observations over the
past decade continue to support the finding that the area experiencing much above - normal maximum and minimum temperatures in
recent years has been on the rise, with infrequent occurrence of much below - normal mean maximum and minimum temperatures
This
recent shift towards more intense and frequent El Niños is related to the
recent increase in dry areas around the world.5 However,
past observations and reconstructions of El Niño events from non-instrumental records such as corals show that El Niño events naturally fluctuate in magnitude and frequency
over time, and this has been demonstrated in long climate model simulations of
past and future climate as well.6
The first point to make is that if asked to forecast the next twenty years
observation from temperature anomaly time series most of us would do as Tom Scharf suggests — lay down a ruler
over the
recent past and extrapolate.
None of these could have been caused by an increase in atmospheric CO2, Model projections of warming during
recent decades have greatly exceeded what has been observed, The modelling community has openly acknowledged that the ability of existing models to simulate
past climates is due to numerous arbitrary tuning adjustments,
Observations show no statistically valid trends in flooding or drought, and no meaningful acceleration whatsoever of pre-existing long term sea level rise (about 6 inches per century) worldwide, Current carbon dioxide levels, around 400 parts per million are still very small compared to the averages
over geological history, when thousands of parts per million prevailed, and when life flourished on land and in the oceans.