Emanuel explains,
the observed atmospheric temperature does not keep pace with SST which leads to a decrease in vertical stability and an increase in potential intensity.
Not exact matches
But at around 1.9 million times
atmospheric pressure and 4,800 kelvins (about 4,500 ° Celsius), the scientists
observed a jump in density and
temperature.
With coordinated experiments with six
atmospheric general circulation models, forced by
observed daily sea - ice concentration and sea surface
temperatures.
Bringing together
observed and simulated measurements on ocean
temperatures,
atmospheric pressure, water soil and wildfire occurrences, the researchers have a powerful tool in their hands, which they are willing to test in other regions of the world: «Using the same climate model configuration, we will also study the soil water and fire risk predictability in other parts of our world, such as the Mediterranean, Australia or parts of Asia,» concludes Timmermann.
Many NASA satellites
observe environmental factors that are associated with El Niño evolution and its impacts, including sea surface
temperature, sea surface height, surface currents,
atmospheric winds and ocean color.
Gerber, S., et al., 2003: Constraining
temperature variations over the last millennium by comparing simulated and
observed atmospheric CO2.
«We find this fingerprint both in a high - resolution climate model in response to increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the
temperature trends
observed since the late nineteenth century.»
The catalog is based on a compilation of literature values for
atmospheric properties (
temperature, surface gravity, and metallicity) derived from different observational techniques (photometry, spectroscopy, as... ▽ More We present revised properties for 196,468 stars
observed by the NASA Kepler Mission and used in the analysis of Quarter 1 - 16 (Q1 - Q16) data to detect and characterize transiting exoplanets.
The team
observed signatures of glowing water molecules, which indicated that WASP - 121b's
atmospheric temperatures increase with altitude, Evans said.
Like detection methods, these approaches seek to fit the space - time patterns, or spatial means in time, of
observed surface,
atmospheric or ocean
temperatures.
«The
observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and
atmospheric temperature trends, doesn't show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming,» wrote lead author David Douglas, a climate expert from the University of Rochester, in New York state.
In a series of papers, we've shown that the warmer
temperatures observed over the WAIS are the result of those same
atmospheric circulation changes, which are not related to the SAM, but rather to the remote forcing from changes in the tropical Pacific: changes in the character of ENSO (Steig et al., 2012; Ding et al., 2011; 2012).
Our work is a «downscaling» study, in which we first simulate past hurricane seasons, using as input
observed sea surface
temperatures (SSTs), the
observed state of the atmosphere at the boundaries of our Atlantic domain, as well as the largest scales in the
atmospheric flow over the Atlantic.
The significant difference between the
observed decrease of the CO2 sink estimated by the inversion (0.03 PgC / y per decade) and the expected increase due solely to rising
atmospheric CO2 -LRB--0.05 PgC / y per decade) indicates that there has been a relative weakening of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink (0.08 PgC / y per decade) due to changes in other
atmospheric forcing (winds, surface air
temperature, and water fluxes).
I know of no climate scientist who would do experiments fixing land
temperatures and
observing the
atmospheric response, and with good reason.
With respect to your statement that «No one calculates the surface
temperature (which is well
observed) using the
atmospheric heat content».
Here we analyze a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface
temperature and the corresponding trans - basin displacements of the main
atmospheric pressure centers were key drivers of the
observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea - level rise.
It presents a significant reinterpretation of the region's recent climate change origins, showing that
atmospheric conditions have changed substantially over the last century, that these changes are not likely related to historical anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, and that dynamical mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal
temperature variability can also apply to
observed century - long trends.
Now that I have answered your challenge to the question in your original post, you have changed the question to «'' No one calculates the surface
temperature (which is well
observed) using the
atmospheric heat content».
The quote from the NRC report is, frankly, a little odd, since it is bizarre that anyone would attempt to calculate the surface
temperature (which is well
observed) using the
atmospheric heat content and climate sensitivity (which are not).
It is simply physically wrong to specify sea surface
temperatures and
observe the
atmospheric response for any phenomenon whose time scale is more than a few months.
In doing so I provide a new conceptual overview of Earth's climate mechanism which appears to fit all
observed changes in
atmospheric temperature trends and, in view of the failure of existing climate models, I suggests a path forward for further research.
So the
observed change in CO2 and
temperature since 1850 tell us that doubling
atmospheric CO2 should cause an increase in global
temperature of somewhere between 0.7 °C and 1.4 °C
Climate science is the only science of which I'm aware (and my graduate training is in
atmospheric science) where the
observed data are consistently altered to conform to the theory, rather than the theory revised to conform to actual
temperature observations and data.
there has been no statistically discernible rise in global
temperature for the most recent 15 years despite
atmospheric CO2 concentration rising by ~ 4 % during that time so the rise in the CO2 is
observed to not be overwhelming other causes of the
temperature change, 2.
Now that it is possible to simulate the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal explicitly in global
atmospheric models, hypotheses about what controls
observed relationships between sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and the MJO can be explored.
The increasing
atmospheric temperature observed at elevations of 5,000 m and more can not melt ice directly, but change the nature of precipitation.
Therefore, even under this ultra-conservative unrealistic low climate sensitivity scenario, the increase in
atmospheric CO2 over the past 150 years would account for over half of the
observed 0.8 °C increase in surface
temperature.
«We find this fingerprint both in a high - resolution climate model in response to increasing
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the
temperature trends
observed since the late nineteenth century.»
-- Despite CO2's known greenhouse properties, changes in
atmospheric CO2 lag behind changes in
temperature on all
observed time - scales.
«What our study shows is that
observed water vapor concentrations are high enough and
temperatures are low enough over the U.S. in summertime to initiate the chemistry that is known to lead to ozone losses,» said Harvard
atmospheric scientist David Wilmouth, one of the paper's co-authors, in an email.
Type 3 dynamic downscaling takes lateral boundary conditions from a global model prediction forced by specified real world surface boundary conditions, such as for seasonal weather predictions based on
observed sea surface
temperatures, but the initial
observed atmospheric conditions in the global model are forgotten.
Traditional anthropogenic theory of currently
observed global warming states that release of carbon dioxide into atmosphere (partially as a result of utilization of fossil fuels) leads to an increase in
atmospheric temperature because the molecules of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) absorb the infrared radiation from the Earth's surface.
Although the satellites are considered the gold - standard for measuring and
observing sea levels, hurricanes / typhoons, ozone holes, sea ice,
atmospheric CO2 distribution, polar ice sheet masses and etc., the same 24/7 technology used to measure
temperatures across the entire habitable world is now being ignored (i.e., denied) due to the above inconvenient evidence.
A National Research Council panel was convened to examine
observed trends of
temperature near the surface and in the lower to midtroposphere (the
atmospheric layer extending from the earth's surface up to about 8 km).
A comparison of the radiative equilibrium
temperatures with the
observed temperatures has indicated the extent to which the other
atmospheric processes, such as convection, large - scale circulation, and condensation processes, influence the thermal energy balance of the system.
Anyway here is the
observed relationship between variations in
atmospheric temperature and water vapor.
This means that there is no validity to the comment that this is «still considerably smaller than the estimated rise in
temperatures from a continuation of current CO2 emission rates» especially considering the fact that CO2 emissions from humans are definitely not the prime source of the
observed increase in
atmospheric CO2 concentration.
A more definitive reconciliation of modeled and
observed temperature changes awaits the extension and improvement of the observations and the algorithms used in processing them, better specification of the natural and human - induced climate forcings during this period, and improvement of the models used to simulate the
atmospheric response to these forcings.break
In particular, initial stages of
atmospheric model development often take place without coupling to an ocean model, running instead over
observed sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice extent.
(b) A more vigorous
atmospheric circulation in the region of the Norwegian Sea would explain the
observed facts, namely the recession of the ice - limit, the increased frequency of south - westerly winds, rather than south - easterly, in North Norway, and the consequent marked rise in winter
temperatures which has attained its greatest magnitude in the north of the Scandinavian Peninsula.
Increased understanding of uncertainties in radiosonde and satellite records makes assessment of causes of
observed trends in the upper troposphere less confident than an assessment of overall
atmospheric temperature changes.
It is in the
atmospheric temperature record that we must firstly
observe the AGW signal for it is the atmosphere where the perturbation occurs.
Barnett et al. «Penetration of Human - Induced Warming into the World's Oceans» (Science, Vol 309, Issue 5732, 284 - 287, 8 July 2005) «A new study has found a «compelling agreement» between
observed changes in ocean
temperatures since 1960 and the changes simulated by two climate models under rising
atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases.
Forgetting the theory for a moment, it is easy to relate the
observed change in surface
temperature to the sort of
observed change in
atmospheric CO2 from 1850 to today, assuming
Once the enhancement of the surface
temperature required to mechanically maintain
atmospheric height is deducted from the
observed surface
temperature then the surface can be seen to be at the
temperature predicted by the Stefan Boltzmann Constant.
Change to
atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is
observed to follow change to global
temperature at all time scales.
Water now returning to the surface having entered deep ocean during the MWP may be inducing release of oceanic CO2 in response to altered pH, and this release could be expected to provide the steady increase in
atmospheric CO2 concentration (of at least 1.5 ppm / year) that is
observed to be independent of
temperature variations.
The
observed recent rise in
atmospheric CO2 concentration will cause the global
temperature to rise.
Confirmation that these spatially and temporally complex adjustments are quite realistic globally is emerging from simulations of the Jones (1994) land - surface air
temperature anomalies using the Hadley Centre
atmospheric climate model HadAM3 forced with
observed SST and sea - ice extents since 1871, updated from Rayner et al. (1996).