Sentences with phrase «observed changes in surface temperature»

Consistent with observed changes in surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in glacier and small ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere; sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the oceans are warming; and sea level is rising (Chapter 5).

Forgetting the theory for a moment, it is easy to relate the observed change in surface temperature to the sort of observed change in atmospheric CO2 from 1850 to today, assuming

Not exact matches

The map below shows the observed change in global near - surface air temperature since 1900.

Taking factors such as sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases and natural aerosol particles into consideration, the researchers determined that changes in the concentration of black carbon could be the primary driving force behind the observed alterations to the hydrological cycle in the region.

That study addressed a puzzle, namely that recent studies using the observed changes in Earth's surface temperature suggested climate sensitivity is likely towards the lower end of the estimated range.

This is not only in excellent agreement with the observed temperature changes at the surface (blue stars), it also correctly reproduces the observed heat storage in the oceans — a strong indicator that the model's heat budget is correct.

«In this post we will evaluate this contrarian claim by comparing the global surface temperature projections from each of the first four IPCC reports to the subsequent observed temperature changes.

That illustrates my point, which is that present changes in surface temperature is not a good indicator of what we should expect in the future, and as such, it is not a great idea to make the debate about the observed ocean temperature.

The problem here is that estimates of changes in sea surface temperature and the depth of the warm mixed layer might be very unreliable, since the general behavior of the Atlantic circulation is only now being directly observed — and the most recent findings are that flow rates vary over a whole order of magnitude:

The significant difference between the observed decrease of the CO2 sink estimated by the inversion (0.03 PgC / y per decade) and the expected increase due solely to rising atmospheric CO2 -LRB--0.05 PgC / y per decade) indicates that there has been a relative weakening of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink (0.08 PgC / y per decade) due to changes in other atmospheric forcing (winds, surface air temperature, and water fluxes).

«In this post we will evaluate this contrarian claim by comparing the global surface temperature projections from each of the first four IPCC reports to the subsequent observed temperature changes.

This is not only in excellent agreement with the observed temperature changes at the surface (blue stars), it also correctly reproduces the observed heat storage in the oceans — a strong indicator that the model's heat budget is correct.

That study addressed a puzzle, namely that recent studies using the observed changes in Earth's surface temperature suggested climate sensitivity is likely towards the lower end of the estimated range.

The basic issue is that nudging surface temperatures in the North Atlantic closer to observed data would probably nudge the Atlantic overturning circulation in the wrong direction since changing the temperature without changing the salinity will give the opposite buoyancy forcing to what would be needed.

Now that I have answered your challenge to the question in your original post, you have changed the question to «'' No one calculates the surface temperature (which is well observed) using the atmospheric heat content».

Here we would like to try to distinguish between warming in the nocturnal boundary layer due to a redistribution of heat and warming due to the accumulation of heat... It is likely that the observed warming in minimum temperature, whether caused by additional greenhouse forcing or land use changes or other land surface dynamics, is reflecting a redistribution of heat by turbulence - not an accumulation of heat.

In this work the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is estimated based on observed near - surface temperature change from the instrumental record, changes in ocean heat content and detailed RF time serieIn this work the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is estimated based on observed near - surface temperature change from the instrumental record, changes in ocean heat content and detailed RF time seriein ocean heat content and detailed RF time series.

In 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.&raquIn 2013, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report stated a clear expert consensus that: «It is extremely likely [defined as 95 - 100 % certainty] that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.&raquin global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic [human - caused] increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.&raquin greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together.»

Note: The step change (temperature drop) at 1945 has been identified as an error in a recent Thompson et al letter to «Nature» with the title «A Large Discontinuity in the Mid-Twentieth Century in Observed Global - Mean Surface Temperattemperature drop) at 1945 has been identified as an error in a recent Thompson et al letter to «Nature» with the title «A Large Discontinuity in the Mid-Twentieth Century in Observed Global - Mean Surface TemperatureTemperature».

By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the global mean surface temperature, the land - ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over land and the mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.

What's lost in a lot of the discussion about human - caused climate change is not that the sum of human activities is leading to some warming of the earth's temperature, but that the observed rate of warming (both at the earth's surface and throughout the lower atmosphere) is considerably less than has been anticipated by the collection of climate models upon whose projections climate alarm (i.e., justification for strict restrictions on the use of fossil fuels) is built.

After accounting for volcanic and human effects, the residual variability in land - surface temperature is observed to closely mirror (and for slower changes slightly lead) variations in the Gulf Stream.

Many variables — rainfall, sea surface temperature, fisheries, cyclone frequency — all are observed in empirical evidence — hard data — to change abruptly and for lessor or longer periods.

Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations.We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the observed history of sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model.

After all, the TCR is associated with the temperature change in response to increasing CO2, and Gillett et al. attribute essentially the entire observed global surface warming to the greenhouse gas increase.

«Global warming, which is a part of climate change, is the observed increase in average temperature of the Earth's surface and atmosphere.

We conclude by underlining that the observed variation of glacier surface and SLA changes could be explained by the increase of temperature and decrease of precipitation in recent years.

Ozone depletion in the late twentieth century was the primary driver of the observed poleward shift of the jet during summer, which has been linked to changes in tropospheric and surface temperatures, clouds and cloud radiative effects, and precipitation at both middle and low latitudes.

Even while identifying some of the observed change in climatic behaviour, such as a 0.4 C increase in surface temperature over the past century, or about 1 mm per year sea level rise in Northern Indian Ocean, or wider variation in rainfall patterns, the document notes that no firm link between the do...

That suggests that the 1940s tropical warming could have started the changes in the Amundsen Sea ice shelves that are being observed now... He emphasized that natural variations in tropical sea - surface temperatures associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation play a significant role.»

First row: trends in observed temperature changes (Hadley Centre / Climatic Research Unit gridded surface temperature data set (HadCRUT3), Brohan et al., 2006).

By figuring out the exact thermal transfer rate as you go downward in the strata being measured and taking an exact temperature measurement along the way surface temperature changes in the past can be observed.

I should not be surprised if, in due course, the Professor were to publish a paper on the implications of the remarkably substantial discrepancy between the model - predicted and actually - observed rates of change in surface evaporation per unit change in surface temperature.

In his House of Commons presentation, toward the end, he gives a sketch of an alternative derivation of the «Climate Sensitivity» based on observed rates of evaporation increase per change in sea surface temperature, and this based on data from the 2007 paper by Wentz eIn his House of Commons presentation, toward the end, he gives a sketch of an alternative derivation of the «Climate Sensitivity» based on observed rates of evaporation increase per change in sea surface temperature, and this based on data from the 2007 paper by Wentz ein sea surface temperature, and this based on data from the 2007 paper by Wentz et.

Hence, the panel concludes that at least part of the observed disparity between the 20 - year changes in surface and mid-tropospheric temperature is probably real, but the measurement, modeling, and sampling uncertainties alluded to above make it difficult to precisely attribute the disparity to any particular sources.

Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) global average sea level rise from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March - April.

The new research uses multiple runs of a coupled ocean - atmosphere computer model to simulate global temperature changes in response to climate forcing when the sea surface temperature (SST) in the el Niño region follows its historically observed values.

This combined evidence... is substantially stronger than the evidence that is available from observed changes in global surface temperature alone.

The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate change projections.

Finds that average daytime surface temperature in the Jambi province increased by 1.05 °C over the last 16 years, which followed the trend of observed land cover changes and exceeded the effects of climate warming

There is consistence [70] between the estimates of the ISCCP, the global albedo, the insolation measured at the surface and the length of the daily insolation observed in many places: all of them are likely to explain the temperature changes.

Wardle and Smith (2004) argued that the upward rainfall trend is consistent with the upward trend in land surface temperatures that has been observed in the south of the continent, independent of changes over the oceans.

If there is deep - water formation in the final steady state as in the present day, the ocean will eventually warm up fairly uniformly by the amount of the global average surface temperature change (Stouffer and Manabe, 2003), which would result in about 0.5 m of thermal expansion per degree celsius of warming, calculated from observed climatology; the EMICs in Figure 10.34 indicate 0.2 to 0.6 m °C — 1 for their final steady state (year 3000) relative to 2000.

Well, I was one of the first persons in the blogosphere at the time to evaluate that, because I compared the dip in the temperature of sampled water with the dip in the temperature of near - surface air measured on ships, and observed that approximately half or so of the dip was explainable by instrumentation changes and the remainder by some other mechanism — probably a change in internal ocean dynamics (PDO, AMO, etc..)

We can all observe the greening that more atmospheric CO2 brings, but this greening is unlikely to result in measurable surface temperature change.

As expected, the ability of the model to simulate observed changes in global surface temperature after 1998 improves as less reliable observations from the early portion of the sample period are eliminated from the estimation sample (Fig. 2).

Global temperature change obtained by multiplying the sum of the two climate forcings in figure 5c by a sensitivity of 3/4 °C per W m − 2 yields a remarkably good fit to «observations» (figure 6), where the observed temperature is 2 × ΔTdo, with 2 being the scale factor required to yield the estimated 4.5 °C LGM — Holocene surface temperature change.

Soloman and her co-authors argue that El Niño has been one of the drivers of changes in stratospheric water vapor, noting that «The drop in stratospheric water vapor observed after 2001 has been correlated to sea surface temperature (SST) increases in the vicinity of the tropical «warm pool» which are related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).»

In it, they documented how a change in observing practices before and after World War II produced a cold bias in the sea surface temperatures that were incorporated into the compilations of global average temperatures (see here and here for more detailsIn it, they documented how a change in observing practices before and after World War II produced a cold bias in the sea surface temperatures that were incorporated into the compilations of global average temperatures (see here and here for more detailsin observing practices before and after World War II produced a cold bias in the sea surface temperatures that were incorporated into the compilations of global average temperatures (see here and here for more detailsin the sea surface temperatures that were incorporated into the compilations of global average temperatures (see here and here for more details).

Observed temperature (black line), the out - of - sample forecast for global surface temperature driven by anthropogenic changes in radiative forcing (red line) and the out - of - sample forecast for global surface temperature driven by natural variables (solar insolation, SOI, and volcanic sulfates)(green line).