There is however separate proof that a casual link exists between cosmic rays and climate, and independently that cosmic rays left a fingerprint in
the observed cloud cover variations.
Radiative effects of surface -
observed cloud cover anomalies, called «cloud cover radiative forcing (CCRF) anomalies,» are estimated based on a linear relationship to climatological cloud radiative forcing per unit cloud cover.
I am happy to agree with WebHubTelescope that the changes in
observed cloud cover may be a result of increases in CO2.
Thus the study shows that that iRAM simulates recently
observed cloud cover changes in this the eastern Pacific more accurately than the GCMs, and iRAM also successfully simulates the main features of the observed interannual variation of clouds in this region, including the evolution of the clouds through the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
Not exact matches
Using data from earth -
observing satellites and high - resolution climate models, the authors found a consistent decrease in summer
cloud cover since 1995.
Of particular importance are vertically extended polar stratospheric
clouds that have been
observed to
cover wide areas of the Arctic.
However, radiation changes at the top of the atmosphere from the 1980s to 1990s, possibly related in part to the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, appear to be associated with reductions in tropical upper - level
cloud cover, and are linked to changes in the energy budget at the surface and changes in
observed ocean heat content.
Our understanding of these phenomena and our ability to model them are primitive,...» While there are doubts about the link between cosmic rays and
cloud cover, there is an
observed significant link between (low)
cloud cover and solar radiation within the last two sun cycles.
Once the limitations of our study (short coverage, limited precision, viewing angle) are considered, this frequency indicates that most (and probably all) brown dwarfs have intrinsically patchy
cloud covers and display rotational variability when
observed at sub-percent accuracy.
Unless low - level
cloud albedo substantially decreased during this time period, the reduced solar absorption caused by the reported enhancement of
cloud cover would have resulted in cooling of the climate system that is inconsistent with the
observed temperature record.»
«the variation of ionization by galactic cosmic rays over the decadal solar cycle does not entail a response... that would explain
observed variations in global
cloud cover»
«Global mean time series of surface - and satellite -
observed low - level and total
cloud cover exhibit very large discrepancies, however, implying that artifacts exist in one or both data sets... The surface -
observed low - level
cloud cover time series averaged over the global ocean appears suspicious because it reports a very large 5 % - sky -
cover increase between 1952 and 1997.
«we estimate that less than 23 %, at the 95 % confidence level, of the 11 - year cycle changes in the globally averaged
cloud cover observed in solar cycle 22 is due to the change in the rate of ionization from the solar modulation of cosmic rays.»
This coastal
cloud cover is frequently
observed reaching as far inland as Poway and in some cases, San Diego Country Estates.
«A number of studies have suggested that long - term irradiance - based measurements of
cloud cover from satellite may be unreliable due to the inclusion of artifacts, difficulties in
observing low -
cloud, biases connected to view angles, and calibration issues [1, 2, 3, 4].
No matter what (unknown) physical process causes the changes in
cloud cover, these changes are
observed during a sun cycle.
Our understanding of these phenomena and our ability to model them are primitive,...» While there are doubts about the link between cosmic rays and
cloud cover, there is an
observed significant link between (low)
cloud cover and solar radiation within the last two sun cycles.
One only needs to increase the direct insolation variance with a factor 3 - 5 (e.g. by
observed variations in
cloud cover, see also my comment # 18)...
The sun doesn't vary enough for this and the
observed variations of
cloud cover and albedo do not match the solar cycle.
So if there were, say, a decadal - scale 1 % -2 % reduction in
cloud cover that allowed more SW radiation to penetrate into the ocean (as has been
observed since the 1980s), do you think this would have an impact of greater magnitude on the heat in the oceans than a change of, say, +10 ppm (0.00001) in the atmospheric CO2 concentration?
Hansen et al. (1995) demonstrate that tropospheric aerosols plus increases in continental
cloud cover, possibly associated with aerosols, could account for the
observed decrease in DTR.
This discrepancy is associated with simulated increases in daily maximum temperature being larger than
observed, and could be associated with simulated increases in
cloud cover being smaller than
observed (Braganza et al., 2004; see Section 3.4.3.1 for observations), a result supported by other analyses (Dai et al., 1999; Stone and Weaver, 2002, 2003).
A 1 % decrease in
cloud cover has a slightly higher radiative effect as all the
observed loss of Arctic sea ice to date has had.
(Ramanathan and Inamdar 1989) So a 1 % decrease in
cloud cover has a slightly higher radiative effect as all the
observed loss of Arctic sea ice to date has had.
From the figures I took an average value of 0.45 — but, hey, if you prefer to assume 0.35, that's OK, because it will not change the conclusion that the
observed Arctic sea ice melt has not appreciably changed our planet's total albedo, and that a very small change in
cloud cover would have a far greater effect.
Consistency between EECRA upper - level
cloud cover anomalies and those from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) during 1984 — 1997 suggests the surface - observed trends are
cloud cover anomalies and those from the International Satellite
Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) during 1984 — 1997 suggests the surface - observed trends are
Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) during 1984 — 1997 suggests the surface -
observed trends are real.
He says that the increased solar brightness over the past 20 years has not been enough to cause the
observed climate changes, but believes that the impact of intense sunshine on the ozone layer and
cloud cover could be affecting the climate more than the sunlight itself.
The closest effect to a «greenhouse» anyone can
observe is heavy
cloud cover.
«This study examines variability in zonal mean surface -
observed upper - level (combined midlevel and high - level) and low - level
cloud cover over land during 1971 — 1996 and over ocean during 1952 — 1997.
Statistical analysis of
observed daily
cloud cover and sulfate surface concentrations in Europe and North America indicates a significant negative correlation between
clouds and sulfate.
The reduction in surface -
observed upper - level
cloud cover between the 1980s and 1990s is also consistent with the decadal increase in all - sky outgoing longwave radiation reported by the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS).
The tutorial
covers the following four topics: determining satellite overpass time,
observing cloud properties, transmitting results to NASA, and comparing results with satellite - retrieved properties.
NRF is influenced by seasonal variations related to the tilt of the Earth's axis and degree of
cloud cover as well as Earth's surface features... (View More) Using measurements taken by the CERES instrument, students will
observe and analyze NRF patterns.
Between days − 5 to +3 (after the first appear - ance of significant
cloud changes) the
observed correlation coefficient between SLAT and
cloud cover was found to be R = − 0.91.
However, there have been several studies comparing
observed changes in
cloud cover to
cloud simulations in climate models.
We had the warm ENSO period of the 1980s / 1990s (which led to the all - time record warm year 1998), an
observed decrease in late 20th C
cloud cover (and albedo), the highest solar activity for several thousand years, etc..
Craig Loehle Your still making an assumption that CO2 was the main driver of recent warming when the observations show a 4 - 5 % reduction of
cloud cover during the 1990s that was responsible at least 75 % (0.3 degC or 0.7 W / m2) of the
observed warming in the satellite period.
This suggests that the aerosol indirect effect and in particular the increase of
cloud cover can serve as a possible explanation to the
observed changes in surface illumination.
If this hypothesis is validated it could be a «paradigm buster», in that it would provide a mechanism for the
observed reaction of our climate to changes in
cloud cover (Spencer) and the empirically
observed correlation between solar activity and temperature (Svensmark), which lies beyond the measured impact of direct solar irradiance alone.
The authors are very careful not to describe the
observed change in
cloud cover as a «feedback».
I wasn't aware how much error there was in
cloud cover with far fewer
clouds predicted by the physics models than the
clouds actually
observed, except in the very high latitudes where they predict far more than actually
observed.
It is well known that the solar magnetic cycle strongly modulates the cosmic ray flux
observed on Earth and there have been a number of papers concerning apparent correlations between cosmic rays and
cloud cover.
Cloud cover changes that HAVE been
observed show a minor increase, but < 10 % of the temperature change can be attributed to that.
It is logical to presume that changes in Earth's albedo are due to increases and decreases in low
cloud cover, which in turn is related to the climate change that we have
observed during the 20th Century, including the present global cooling.
«the variation of ionization by galactic cosmic rays over the decadal solar cycle does not entail a response... that would explain
observed variations in global
cloud cover»
«Global mean time series of surface - and satellite -
observed low - level and total
cloud cover exhibit very large discrepancies, however, implying that artifacts exist in one or both data sets... The surface -
observed low - level
cloud cover time series averaged over the global ocean appears suspicious because it reports a very large 5 % - sky -
cover increase between 1952 and 1997.
Unless low - level
cloud albedo substantially decreased during this time period, the reduced solar absorption caused by the reported enhancement of
cloud cover would have resulted in cooling of the climate system that is inconsistent with the
observed temperature record.»
The
observed relationships between
cloud cover and regional meteorological conditions provide a more complete way of testing the realism of the
cloud simulation in current - generation climate models.