For example, analyses of remaining carbon budgets often use ESM - derived numbers from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) most recent assessment report, and calculate remaining budgets using
observed cumulative emissions to date.
Black cross shows 2015 human - induced warming and
observed cumulative emissions.
You find that
the observed cumulative emissions is significantly LESS that you would get presuming a 1.5 % rate of increase up to 8749.
Not exact matches
They estimate the relationship between
observed warming and
observed cumulative CO2
emissions, calculating the «transient climate response to
cumulative emissions» — the amount of warming per teratonne carbon (TtC, or 1000 gigatonnes carbon).
We
observe the strongest correlation in (d), between peak warming and
cumulative emissions to 2200.
Hence we can say that no CO2 effect on the temperatures has been
observed since 1978 despite an increase of 263 % of the
cumulative anthropic
emissions (263 % = 402 Gt - C / 153 Gt - C).
If we compute the
cumulative sum of the anthropogenic contribution to net global
emission, we get the component of the
observed increase in CO2 that is due to anthropogenic
emissions, which is a steady linear trend rising at 1.5 ppmv per year.