If the sun is primarily responsible for
observed global air temperature changes (even if heavily modulated by ocean behaviour as I contend elsewhere) then we need to know sooner rather than later otherwise a misdiagnosis of the causes of climate change could cause unimaginable disruption and hardship through the imposition of incorrect remedies.
On balance the evidence shows that solar and oceanic variations are more likely the cause of recent observations of warming in the air than increasing CO2 in the air but the issue can soon be resolved by
observing the global air temperature changes that occur during and after the extended cycle 23 and the probable weak cycle 24.
Not exact matches
The map below shows the
observed change in
global near - surface
air temperature since 1900.
The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface
air temperature of 0.1 — 0.2 °C, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming
observed since 2001.
So the IPCC have formalized the claim that, were it not for Chinese
air pollution, the
global temperature rise would be higher than it has been, justifying more actual sensitivity to CO2 than we appear to
observe.
The term «
global warming» has been used to describe the
observed surface
air temperature increase in the 20th century.
«A multiple linear regression analysis of
global annual mean near - surface
air temperature (1900 — 2012) using the known radiative forcing and the El Niño — Southern Oscillation index as explanatory variables account for 89 % of the
observed temperature variance.
Despite the many unresolved issues touched on in this chapter and discussed in more detail in chapters 5 — 9, the progress that has been achieved over the past few years provides a basis for drawing some tentative conclusions concerning the nature of the
observed differences between surface and upper
air temperature trends, and their implications for the detection and attribution of
global climate change.break
«The net effect of these anomalous winds is a cooling in the 2012
global average surface
air temperature of 0.1 — 0.2 degree Celsius, which can account for much of the hiatus in surface warming
observed since 2001,» wrote Australian researcher led by Matthew England of the University of New South Wales.
Craig King - Further to Bob Loblaw's comments; that
global surface
air temperatures are warming faster than upper ocean
temperatures is well -
observed and completely uncontroversial.
Note that this result is not directly a test of model fidelity, but rather of linearity; what is converging here is the model's representations of
air - sea interaction leading to
global mean surface
temperature anomalies, not whether the models have the ability to capture the magnitude or even the spatial patterns of
observed RASST variability.
As Media Matters has noted, the IPCC's 2007 «Synthesis Report» concluded that» [w] arming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in
global average
air and ocean
temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice and rising
global average sea level» and that» [m] ost of the
observed increase in
global average
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely [defined in the report as a» > 90 %» probability] due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic [human - caused] GHG [greenhouse gas] concentrations.»
«Fs», the fixed SST forcing, is a combination of the flux change at the top of (and throughout) the atmosphere and of the
global surface
air temperature change after the forcing and with
observed sea surface
temperature (SST) and sea ice (SI) held fixed.