Sentences with phrase «observed multidecadal variability»

Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature?

Predictions at longer timescales, such as 10 or 20 yr are also found to be less skillful, given the observed multidecadal variability.

Zhang, R., T. L. Delworth, and I. M. Held, 2007: Can the Atlantic Ocean drive the observed multidecadal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature?

Not exact matches

Delworth, T.L., and M.E. Mann, 2000: Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere.

«Multidecadal variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is observed to relate to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a mode manifesting primarily in sea surface temperature (SST) in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic.

Since the CMIP5 models used by the IPCC on average adequately reproduce observed global warming in the last two and a half decades of the 20th century without any contribution from multidecadal ocean variability, it follows that those models (whose mean TCR is slightly over 1.8 °C) must be substantially too sensitive.

Delworth, T.L., Mann, M.E., Observed and Simulated Multidecadal Variability in the Northern Hemisphere, Climate Dynamics, 16, 661 - 676, 2000.

It presents a significant reinterpretation of the region's recent climate change origins, showing that atmospheric conditions have changed substantially over the last century, that these changes are not likely related to historical anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing, and that dynamical mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also apply to observed century - long trends.

Ruprich - Robert, Y., F. Castruccio, R. Msadek, S. G. Yeager, T. Delworth, and G. Danabasoglu, 2016: Assessing the climate impacts of the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 global coupled models.

Assessing the Climate Impacts of the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 Global Coupled Models (Journal of Climate)

They do a poor job at simulating the observed modes of natural internal climate variability (e.g. the multidecadal ocean oscillations).

Zhang, R., T. L. Delworth, R. Sutton, D. L. R. Hodson, K. W. Dixon, I. M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Marshall, Y. Ming, R. Msadek, J. Robson, A. J. Rosati, M. F. Ting, and G. A. Vecchi, 2013: Have aerosols caused the observed Atlantic multidecadal variability?

The BEST team found that greenhouse gases and volcanic eruptions could account for most of the observed temperature change, and suggest that the remainder of the variability is fairly consistent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), an ocean cycle, and very little contribution from changes in solar activity (Figure 2).

Quantitatively, the recurrent multidecadal internal variability, often underestimated in attribution studies, accounts for 40 % of the observed recent 50 - y warming trend.

And finally, attribution studies can't simply rely on model simulations, since model simulations (even if they capture the correct spectrum of variability) won't match the observed realization of the multidecadal modes in terms of timing.

Observed Atlantic major hurricane frequency has exhibited pronounced multidecadal variability since the 1940s.

The observed internal variability so estimated exhibits a pronounced multidecadal mode with a distinctive spatiotemporal signature, which is altogether absent in model simulations.

This model's forced response agrees very well with the observed surface temperatures averaged over the North Atlantic, so in this model one doesn't need to invoke internal multidecadal variability to match these observations.