Clearly, therefore, something must be fundamentally wrong with the climate models, for their predictions to be so far off from
the observed sea ice trends.»
Not exact matches
Scientists at the National Snow and
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
Ice Data Center (NSIDC), University College London, University of New Hampshire and University of Washington analyzed 300 summer Arctic
sea ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice forecasts from 2008 to 2013 and found that forecasts are quite accurate when
sea ice conditions are close to the downward trend that has been observed in Arctic sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice conditions are close to the downward
trend that has been
observed in Arctic
sea ice for the last 30 yea
ice for the last 30 years.
A comparison of
observed sea ice decline with the model ensemble spread can tell us only how likely an
observed trend is relative to that ensemble.
Here are some possible choices — in order of increasing sophistication: * All (or most) scientists agree (the principal Gore argument) * The 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick» argument) * Glaciers are melting,
sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years ag
sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing *
Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years ag
Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and
observed PATTERNS of temperature
trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agree
We find that the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self - acceleration as an explanation for the
observed long - term
trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent
sea -
ice minima.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on
observed end - of - winter arctic
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and
trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on
observed end - of - winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and
trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
(08/20/2013) As
sea ice levels continue to decline in the northern hemisphere, scientists are
observing an unsettling
trend in harp seal young mortalities regardless of juvenile fitness.
We interpret the split of 2013 Outlooks above and below the 4.1 level to different interpretations of the guiding physics: those who considered that
observed sea ice extent in 2012 being well below the 4.1 level indicates a shift in arctic conditions, especially with regard to reduced
sea ice thickness and increased
sea ice mobility; and those who have estimates above 4.1 who support a return to the longer - term downward
trend line (1979 - 2007).
We interpret the split of 2013 Outlooks above and below the 4.1 median to different interpretations of the guiding physics: those who considered that
observed sea ice extent in 2012 being well below the 4.1 level indicates a shift in arctic conditions, especially with regard to reduced
sea ice thickness and increased
sea ice mobility; and those with estimates above 4.1 who support a return to the longer - term downward
trend line (1979 - 2007).
This model has been proven skillful in reproducing the monthly arctic (and Antarctic)
sea ice extent anomalies over the last 30 years, as well as the
observed long - term downward
trend.
«the available observations are sufficient to virtually exclude internal variability and self - acceleration as an explanation for the
observed long - term
trend, clustering, and magnitude of recent
sea -
ice minima.
The authors used very long control runs of both the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) and Hadley Centre climate models (5,000 years for the GFDL model) to assess the probability that the
observed and model - predicted
trends in Arctic
sea ice extent occur by chance as the result of natural climate variability.
Canadian
Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian
Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on
observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year
Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT),
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and
trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predicto
Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
Taken together, these changes suggest that at least part of the thinning of
sea ice recently
observed over the Arctic Ocean can be attributed to the
trend in the AO toward the high - index polarity.
Conclusions Recently
observed decadal
trends in Arctic winter
sea ice extent are not well explained by external forcing alone.
Looking at AR5, these seem to be the take away messages: «Comparing
trends from the CCSM4 ensemble to
observed trends suggests that internal variability could account for approximately half of the
observed 1979 — 2005 September Arctic
sea ice extent loss.»
... observations suggested the bears drowned in rough
seas and high winds and «suggest that drowning - related deaths of polar bears may increase in the future if the
observed trend of regression of pack
ice and / or longer open water periods continues.»
Canadian
Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on
observed end - of - winter Arctic
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature,
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and
trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predicto
ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and
sea ice predicto
sea ice predicto
ice predictors.
There
sea ice was not reduced and surface temperatures average 5 to 10 ° cooler, and the steep winter warming
trend was not
observed.
Of course, we all know that Arctic
sea ice has been on a downward
trend since satellite records started in 1979, reversing a growing
trend from the 1940s to the 1970s, which was
observed by other means by mostly Russian records.
While it is tempting to attribute the unexplained
sea ice trends to other factors such as increased upwelling of relatively warm circumpolar deepwater (Thoma et al. 2008), an intensification of the hydrological cycle and increased ocean stratification (Liu and Curry 2010), or eastward propagation of
sea ice anomalies (Holland et al. 2005), the
observed northerly wind
trends (Fig. 5a) are qualitatively consistent with the decrease in
sea ice in the 30 ° W — 60 ° W sector.
After 90 days, the Antarctic Peninsula anomaly can locally exceed 0.5 °C, and within a few years can explain the
observed warming
trends at the base of the
ice shelves in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen
seas.
If you strip the scientific context of a globally rising temperature
trend, you could argue that
observed melting of
sea ice is just some noise in the data, part of natural variation.
Past climate models, as judged by the performance of the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 3 (CMIP3) simulations used in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, underestimated the
observed linear
trend in Arctic
sea ice loss (Stroeve et al., 2007).
The newer CMIP5 simulations that are being used in the upcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report are in better agreement with the
observed sea ice loss (Stroeve et al., 2012a; Massonnet et al., 2012), but the reasons for the differences in
sea ice trends between the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models remain unclear.
Global climate model projections for
sea ice trends around Antarctica are at odds with what is being
observed.
For example, while all of the global climate models participating in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report show a decline in Arctic
sea ice over the period of available observations, none of them match the severity of the
trends we actually
observe.
Unfortunately, the majority of GCMs, including those participating in the IPCC AR4, have not been able to adequately reproduce
observed multi-decadal
sea ice variability and
trends in the pan-Arctic region.
«Pretending that extrapolating an
observed trend or that CMIP5 simulations will produce a useful decadal prediction of
sea ice is pointless (well there is a potential point but it is to mislead).»
Observed blocking
trends are diagnosed to test the hypothesis that recent Arctic warming and
sea ice loss has increased the likelihood of blocking over the Northern Hemisphere.