The new finding of the importance of multiple ocean surface temperature changes to the multi-decadal global warming accelerations and slowdowns is supported by a set of computer modeling experiments, in which
observed sea surface temperature changes are specified in individual ocean basins, separately.
Not exact matches
Other climate simulations that use
sea surface temperature variation didn't match
observed changes, either.
Taking factors such as
sea surface temperature, greenhouse gases and natural aerosol particles into consideration, the researchers determined that
changes in the concentration of black carbon could be the primary driving force behind the
observed alterations to the hydrological cycle in the region.
Consistent with
observed changes in
surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in glacier and small ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere;
sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the oceans are warming; and
sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
The problem here is that estimates of
changes in
sea surface temperature and the depth of the warm mixed layer might be very unreliable, since the general behavior of the Atlantic circulation is only now being directly
observed — and the most recent findings are that flow rates vary over a whole order of magnitude:
Other climate simulations that use
sea surface temperature variation didn't match
observed changes, either.
Many variables — rainfall,
sea surface temperature, fisheries, cyclone frequency — all are
observed in empirical evidence — hard data — to
change abruptly and for lessor or longer periods.
Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations.We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global
temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the
observed history of
sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model.
Even while identifying some of the
observed change in climatic behaviour, such as a 0.4 C increase in
surface temperature over the past century, or about 1 mm per year
sea level rise in Northern Indian Ocean, or wider variation in rainfall patterns, the document notes that no firm link between the do...
That suggests that the 1940s tropical warming could have started the
changes in the Amundsen
Sea ice shelves that are being observed now... He emphasized that natural variations in tropical sea - surface temperatures associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation play a significant role.&raq
Sea ice shelves that are being
observed now... He emphasized that natural variations in tropical
sea - surface temperatures associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation play a significant role.&raq
sea -
surface temperatures associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation play a significant role.»
In his House of Commons presentation, toward the end, he gives a sketch of an alternative derivation of the «Climate Sensitivity» based on
observed rates of evaporation increase per
change in
sea surface temperature, and this based on data from the 2007 paper by Wentz et.
Observed changes in (a) global average
surface temperature; (b) global average
sea level rise from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March - April.
The new research uses multiple runs of a coupled ocean - atmosphere computer model to simulate global
temperature changes in response to climate forcing when the
sea surface temperature (SST) in the el Niño region follows its historically
observed values.
Stephen Wilde (00:59:57) «Also one would need to
observe the air circulation systems moving latitudinally BEFORE the ocean
sea surface temperatures change and I don't think that happens does it?»
Soloman and her co-authors argue that El Niño has been one of the drivers of
changes in stratospheric water vapor, noting that «The drop in stratospheric water vapor
observed after 2001 has been correlated to
sea surface temperature (SST) increases in the vicinity of the tropical «warm pool» which are related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).»
In it, they documented how a
change in
observing practices before and after World War II produced a cold bias in the
sea surface temperatures that were incorporated into the compilations of global average
temperatures (see here and here for more details).
Additionally, such an
observing system, by measuring the temporal and spatial variability of the AMOC for approximately a decade, would provide essential ground truth to AMOC model estimates and would also yield insight into whether AMOC
changes or other atmospheric / oceanic variability have the dominant impact on interannual
sea surface temperature (SST) variability.
The
observed patterns of
surface warming,
temperature changes through the atmosphere, increases in ocean heat content, increases in atmospheric moisture,
sea level rise, and increased melting of land and
sea ice also match the patterns scientists expect to see due to rising levels of CO2 and other human - induced
changes (see Question 5).
Natural Variability Doesn't Account for
Observed Temperature Increase In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed sin
Observed Temperature Increase In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed
Temperature Increase In it's press release announcement, NASA points out that while there are other factors than greenhouse gases contributing to the amount of warming
observed — changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the temperature increases observed sin
observed —
changes in the sun's irradiance, oscillations of
sea surface temperatures in the tropics,
changes in aerosol levels in the atmosphere — these factors are not sufficient to account for the
temperature increases observed
temperature increases
observed sin
observed since 1880.
We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global
temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the
observed history of
sea surface temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model.
«Fs», the fixed SST forcing, is a combination of the flux
change at the top of (and throughout) the atmosphere and of the global
surface air
temperature change after the forcing and with
observed sea surface temperature (SST) and
sea ice (SI) held fixed.
The
observed changes (lower panel; Trenberth and Fasullo 2010) show the 12 - month running means of global mean
surface temperature anomalies relative to 1901 — 2000 from NOAA [red (thin) and decadal (thick)-RSB- in °C (scale lower left), CO2 concentrations (green) in ppmv from NOAA (scale right), and global
sea level adjusted for isostatic rebound from AVISO (blue, along with linear trend of 3.2 mm / year) relative to 1993, scale at left in mm).