We can compare the POGA - H models» average to
observed temperature history (according to HadCRUT4 as the authors use) to see how well the models reproduce what has actually happened:
Even if the Callendar parameters had been calculated using
the observed temperature history, it is surely surprising that such a simple formula can out - perform the GCMs, especially given the enormous amount of time, resources and effort expended in these GCMs.
Not exact matches
Third, using a «semi-empirical» statistical model calibrated to the relationship between
temperature and global sea - level change over the last 2000 years, we find that, in alternative
histories in which the 20th century did not exceed the average
temperature over 500-1800 CE, global sea - level rise in the 20th century would (with > 95 % probability) have been less than 51 % of its
observed value.
The result is that the model then also reproduces the
observed global average
temperature history with great accuracy.
They show this with an elegant experiment, in which they «force» their global climate model to follow the
observed history of sea surface
temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.
This link is not about sea
temperatures, but about
observed sea level rise, with a pinch of
history:.
Here we show that accounting for recent cooling in the eastern equatorial Pacific reconciles climate simulations and observations.We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global
temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the
observed history of sea surface
temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model.
Both are
observed fluctuations in mid-ocean
temperatures in the Pacific that are the signal for changes in the climate pattern: both are natural, both occur as part of a cycle, and both can be traced back through human
history.
The first sentence of the opening paragraph reads, «The time
history of
observed twentieth - century global - mean surface
temperature reflects the combined influences of naturally occurring climate variations and anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols.»
The only appropriate test is to examine whether the relationship embodied in the physics of the models holds between actual emissions and
observed temperatures, not between observations from actual emissions and «what if» scenarios with wholly different GHG
histories.
Under the adjustments to the
observed global
temperature history put together by Cowtan and Way, the models fare a bit better than they do with the unadjusted
temperature record.
We present a novel method of uncovering mechanisms for global
temperature change by prescribing, in addition to radiative forcing, the
observed history of sea surface
temperature over the central to eastern tropical Pacific in a climate model.
Castle Medical Center, New York, NY (11/2012 to Present) Emergency Department Technician • Receive patients in emergency conditions and ensure that immediate preparations are carried out to deal with their conditions • Assist doctors and nurses in providing emergency care by providing them with necessary backup support • Take and record patients» vitals such as pulse,
temperature and blood pressure • Record patient
history by interviewing family members • Take and record insurance information and provide families with information on any copays • Bandage wounds after cleaning and sterilizing them and ensure any needed splints are installed •
Observe patients» conditions and alert medical staff members of any changes that may need to be looked into • Take samples of body fluids and arrange for them to be sent to laboratories for testing purposes • Assist in positioning patients to ensure their physical comfort and wellbeing • Operate equipment such as heart monitors and ECG machines • Clean and maintain all instruments and equipment used during emergency care procedures • Maintain medical supplies such as rubbing alcohol, swabs, bandages and splints