Sentences with phrase «observed temperature patterns»
You are auguing about a short pattern during the Dalton Minimum where the solar effect seems larger than the observed temperature pattern that is consistent with a scale of 30/40 year cycle.
http://www.realclimate.org/ Not exact matches
Those weather patterns are linked to warmer surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, respectively, and correlated with the timing of observed floods on the lower Mississippi.
The future of the currents, whether slowing, stopping or reversing (as was observed during several months measurements), could have a profound effect on regional weather patterns — from colder winters in Europe to a much warmer Caribbean (and hence warmer sea surface temperatures to feed hurricanes).
«By prescribing the effects of human - made climate change and observed global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.»
However, it says the observed changes in fire activity are in line with long - term, global fire patterns that climate models have projected will occur as temperatures increase and droughts become more severe in the coming decades due to global warming.
The historic temperature pattern we observed has abrupt dips that match the emissions of known explosive volcanic eruptions; the particulates from such events reflect sunlight, make for beautiful sunsets and cool the earth's surface for a few years.
The westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere, which increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but which have since returned to about normal as part of NAO and NAM changes, alter the flow from oceans to continents and are a major cause of the observed changes in winter storm tracks and related patterns of precipitation and temperature anomalies, especially over Europe.
the low ECS estimates they obtain when using data from AMIP simulations (those where models are driven by observed evolving sea - surface temperature patterns as well evolving forcing) are not news.
A. 1) to diagnose the fit between model - simulated and observed patterns of zonal mean temperature change.
It would be better to develop a figure of merit that looked at observed and predicted geographic patterns of temperature and precip.
Like detection methods, these approaches seek to fit the space - time patterns, or spatial means in time, of observed surface, atmospheric or ocean temperatures.
This method includes measuring basal body temperature, observing cervical fluid patterns and cervical position throughout the month.
Year 4 Science Assessments Objectives covered: Recognise that living things can be grouped in a variety of ways Explore and use classification keys to help group, identify and name a variety of living things in their local and wider environment Recognise that environments can change and that this can sometimes pose dangers to living things Describe the simple functions of the basic parts of the digestive system in humans Identify the different types of teeth in humans and their simple functions Construct and interpret a variety of food chains, identifying producers, predators and prey Compare and group materials together, according to whether they are solids, liquids or gases Observe that some materials change state when they are heated or cooled, and measure or research the temperature at which this happens in degrees Celsius (°C) Identify the part played by evaporation and condensation in the water cycle and associate the rate of evaporation with temperature Identify how sounds are made, associating some of them with something vibrating Recognise that vibrations from sounds travel through a medium to the ear Find patterns between the pitch of a sound and features of the object that produced it Find patterns between the volume of a sound and the strength of the vibrations that produced it Recognise that sounds get fainter as the distance from the sound source increases Identify common appliances that run on electricity Construct a simple series electrical circuit, identifying and naming its basic parts, including cells, wires, bulbs, switches and buzzers Identify whether or not a lamp will light in a simple series circuit, based on whether or not the lamp is part of a complete loop with a battery Recognise that a switch opens and closes a circuit and associate this with whether or not a lamp lights in a simple series circuit Recognise some common conductors and insulators, and associate metals with being good conductors
«The observed pattern of warming, comparing surface and atmospheric temperature trends, doesn't show the characteristic fingerprint associated with greenhouse warming,» wrote lead author David Douglas, a climate expert from the University of Rochester, in New York state.
«It is quite surprising that the observed and projected pattern of surface temperature change are very similar to each other,» they wrote.
These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern - induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the period of reduced warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low 4.
Here are some possible choices — in order of increasing sophistication: * All (or most) scientists agree (the principal Gore argument) * The 20th century is the warmest in 1000 years (the «hockeystick» argument) * Glaciers are melting, sea ice is shrinking, polar bears are in danger, etc * Correlation — both CO2 and temperature are increasing * Sea levels are rising * Models using both natural and human forcing accurately reproduce the detailed behavior of 20th century global temperature * Modeled and observed PATTERNS of temperature trends («fingerprints») of the past 30 years agree
Therefore, in order to come up with an alternative explanation, one has to simultaneously show why GHGs are not causing the warming they would be expected to based on physical principles, and at the same time come up with a natural source of temperature change that can match the magnitude and patterns of the observed change.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (+ / - 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
«This same pattern of extinctions at sites with high summer temperatures has also been observed in the Great Basin region,» researcher Joseph Stewart said in a statement.
«By prescribing the effects of man - made climate change and observed global ocean temperatures, our model can reproduce the observed shifts in weather patterns and wildfire occurrences.»
Spectral radiance emitted to space consistent with Tyndall gas concentrations (confirms ability to calculate radiative forcing); magnitude of Tyndall gas radiative forcing larger than that of all other known forcing agents; observed temperature changes similar in magnitude to those estimated from forcings (confirms ballpark estimates of climate sensitivity); observed pattern of temperature changes match Tyndall gas pattern better than that of all other known forcing agents.
This is based on the high correlation (r = 0.88) of the observed Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) to be represented by cyclic global mean temperature pattern with an overall linear warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century as sTemperature Anomaly (GMTA) to be represented by cyclic global mean temperature pattern with an overall linear warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century as stemperature pattern with an overall linear warming rate of 0.6 deg C per century as shown below:
Similarly, Australia has seen the odds of both heavy rainfalls and droughts increase, and similar patterns are being observed worldwide, coinciding with rising temperatures over the past 50 years.
Both are observed fluctuations in mid-ocean temperatures in the Pacific that are the signal for changes in the climate pattern: both are natural, both occur as part of a cycle, and both can be traced back through human history.
Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictors.
The pattern of warming that we have observed, in which warming has occurred in the lower portions of the atmosphere (the troposphere) and cooling has occurred at higher levels (the stratosphere), is consistent with how greenhouse gases work — and inconsistent with other factors that can affect the global temperature over many decades, like changes in the sun's energy.
Even while identifying some of the observed change in climatic behaviour, such as a 0.4 C increase in surface temperature over the past century, or about 1 mm per year sea level rise in Northern Indian Ocean, or wider variation in rainfall patterns, the document notes that no firm link between the do...
When you add in the temperature trend during this time of year (slight cooling though the northern Midwest, warming across the Southwest), you get a pattern much like that observed during 2018.
The historic temperature pattern we observed has abrupt dips that match the emissions of known explosive volcanic eruptions; the particulates from such events reflect sunlight, make for beautiful sunsets and cool the earth's surface for a few years.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7 (± 0.2), Heuristic / Statistical (same as June) The 2015 forecast was derived by considering a combination of methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic ice thickness extents, as well as winter Surface Air Temperature, Sea Level Pressure and vector wind anomaly patterns and trends; 2) a simple statistical method, Optimal Filtering Based Model (OFBM), that uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate the September sea ice extent timeseries into the future and 3) a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
«The solar fingerprint shows a vertical pattern of free atmosphere temperature changes that has warming throughout the atmosphere unlike the observed pattern of warming in the troposphere and cooling in the stratosphere -LSB-...]» http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00191.1
Figure 9.6 (fourth row) shows that climate models are only able to reproduce the observed patterns of zonal mean near - surface temperature trends over the 1901 to 2005 and 1979 to 2005 periods when they include anthropogenic forcings and fail to do so when they exclude anthropogenic forcings.
Near - surface temperature patterns in the 45 days following all observed SSWs between 1958 - 2016 (left) and the Feb 2018 event (right).
The above finding reinforces the conclusion of Scafetta (2010b) that the IPCC (2007) GCMs do not reproduce the observed major decadal and multidecadal dynamical patterns observed in the global surface temperature record.
3) Warmey people claim there is an observed pattern in the temperature record of nights «warming faster than days».
This hardly seems to fit the IPCC description that «[m] odels reproduce observed continental - scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades» or is grounds for having ``
Recently observed heat and precipitation patterns in California have also caused snowpack to melt earlier, depriving ecosystems of a valuable source of moisture as summer temperatures dry out the landscape.
Scientists have also observed that many of Earth's glaciers, ecosystems and other systems are already being impacted by rising regional temperatures and altered rainfall amounts and patterns.
This hardly seems to fit the IPCC description that «[m] odels reproduce observed continental - scale surface temperature patterns and trends over many decades» or is grounds for having «very high confidence» that the «model simulations show a trend in global - mean surface temperature from 1951 to 2012 that agrees with the observed trend.»
As emphasized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), modern models faithfully simulate continental to global scale temperature patterns and trends observed during the 20th century.
Armed with such a method using data where temperature is observed one could then simulate growth patterns under different (unobserved) historical climates in order to find series that match growth patterns in the rings.
Based on a careful county - by county analysis of patterns of climate and yields of corn, soybeans, and cotton, Schlenker and Roberts (Schlenker and Roberts 2009) concluded that observed yields from all farms and farmers are relatively insensitive to temperature up to a threshold but fall rapidly as temperatures rise above the threshold.
They do play their role, no doubt about that, but you need aerosols to explain most of the observed global temperature pattern.
Conversely, holding greenhouse gas concentrations and sulfur emissions at their 1998 values and allowing solar insolation, SOI, and volcanic sulfates to evolve as observed generates a forecast that is consistent with the observed pattern of temperature change.
Results: Spectral radiance emitted to space consistent with Tyndall gas concentrations (confirms ability to calculate radiative forcing); magnitude of Tyndall gas radiative forcing larger than that of all other known forcing agents; observed temperature changes similar in magnitude to those estimated from forcings (confirms ballpark estimates of climate sensitivity); observed pattern of temperature changes match Tyndall gas pattern better than that of all other known forcing agents.
The observed patterns of surface warming, temperature changes through the atmosphere, increases in ocean heat content, increases in atmospheric moisture, sea level rise, and increased melting of land and sea ice also match the patterns scientists expect to see due to rising levels of CO2 and other human - induced changes (see Question 5).
GAO representatives visited 15 military installations, and at 12 of them found officials who said they had observed not only rising temperatures, stronger and more frequent storms, and changing precipitation patterns, but had also seen how those changes created «potential impacts of mission vulnerabilities,» the report said.
The report confirms that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations and that discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental - average temperatures, temperature extremes and wind patterns.