The ensemble forecast is usually evaluated by comparing the average of the individual forecasts for one forecast variable to
the observed value of that variable (the «error»).
Not exact matches
Reams
of cryptic
variables and numerical
values had to be decoded by changing the settings
of our test router and
observing the effects.
Those relationships are then applied to the
observed values of the predictor
variables to derive an observationally - constrained prediction
of future warming.
We do
observe some modest differences across groups in the average
values of the three yes / no
variables (open enrollment or selective admissions, curricular theme or not, and college prep or not).
Now we wish to calculate the likelihoods that exactly this number is
observed for each
of the possible
value of every
variable we are interested in.
One
of the things that continuous distribution including those represented by extreme
value theory ignore, is that there are extreme
values at which the thing they are representing breaks and the next
values of the
variable being
observed are simply an infinite repeat
of the last extreme
value.
Way back at # 74, Eli said: «One
of the things that continuous distribution including those represented by extreme
value theory ignore, is that there are extreme
values at which the thing they are representing breaks and the next
values of the
variable being
observed are simply an infinite repeat
of the last extreme
value.
Way back at # 74, Eli wrote: «One
of the things that continuous distribution including those represented by extreme
value theory ignore, is that there are extreme
values at which the thing they are representing breaks and the next
values of the
variable being
observed are simply an infinite repeat
of the last extreme
value.
Such solecisms throughout the IPCC's assessment reports (including the insertion, after the scientists had completed their final draft,
of a table in which four decimal points had been right - shifted so as to multiply tenfold the
observed contribution
of ice - sheets and glaciers to sea - level rise), combined with a heavy reliance upon computer models unskilled even in short - term projection, with initial
values of key
variables unmeasurable and unknown, with advancement
of multiple, untestable, non-Popper-falsifiable theories, with a quantitative assignment
of unduly high statistical confidence levels to non-quantitative statements that are ineluctably subject to very large uncertainties, and, above all, with the now - prolonged failure
of TS to rise as predicted (Figures 1, 2), raise questions about the reliability and hence policy - relevance
of the IPCC's central projections.
Now I assume that Dr James Hansen is competent to read a thermometer and that he has available to him thermometers
of whatever precision he could want; so I take the position that mostly the GISS graph is an actual plot
of nearly noiseless
values of a
variable; and the plotted
value at any time represents what the actual signal
observed was at that particular time.
So to me; for a function
of that type; the entire concept
of a «trend» is without meaning; there is no trend; the
variable simply changes
value from one
observed number to a next
observed number; which contains no information relative to any prior
values of the function whatsoever.
Missing
values were predicted using an iterative series
of appropriate regression models (logistic or multinomial) conditional on the
observed values of the outcome
variable, independent
variables used in regression modelling and additional measured
variables.
Controlling for demographic (marital status, length, child gender), deployment
variables (number
of deployments), and baseline
values, families randomized to the ADAPT intervention showed significantly improved
observed parenting compared to those in the comparison group.