It should have been
obvious more than a decade ago that growth in China was so directly dependent
on credit expansion and so indirectly dependent
on balance - sheet
effects (the latter is far more important than most analysts understand but very poorly understood) that we should have discounted altogether Beijing's promises that it would be relatively easy to rein in
credit expansion.
Jim D, If you
credit Feynman's own anecdotes about his work at Oak Ridge, his main contribution was insist to authorities that (despite the
obvious security concerns) the workers had be told something about what they were handling (particularly the
effect of water
on criticality) so that they didn't accidentally kill everyone and / or lose the war.