In a paper published in Science Advances, he proposes that mass extinction occurs if one of two thresholds are crossed: For changes in the carbon cycle that
occur over long timescales, extinctions will follow if those changes occur at rates faster than global ecosystems can adapt.
Not exact matches
This is due to the fact that it has the strongest potential to warm the globe in the
long - run based on its
long lifetime in the atmosphere (ranging from decades to centuries, and a tail end that extends to millennia, and with many climate impacts
occurring over these slow
timescales).
Ricarda Winkelmann et al. modeled the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to a wide range of future carbon emissions scenarios
over the
long - term (previous simulations have mainly looked at changes that might
occur on a shorter
timescale).
It would require a much stronger relationship of temperature driving CO2 than
occurred during the ice age — interglacial oscillations (and it is also important to remember that those changes
occurred over much
longer timescales too... which is the presumed reason why there is a several hundred year lag time between temperatures starting to rise or fall and CO2 starting to rise or fall).
The few
long droughts that have
occurred in Australia
over the past ∼ 100 years seem exceptional, but this may not be true
over longer timescales.
However, large changes
occurred over longer (100 Myr)
timescales (Tyrrell and Zeebe 2004).
Another point he makes regards the speed of the change in CO2 levels and that somehow overwhelming negative feedbacks that would otherwise
occur if the change in CO2 levels happened
over a
longer timescale.
Halting the production of marine biota C and maintaining the same fluxes of C out of marine biota, the marine biota C would be used up in about 3 weeks, at which point a 0.0022 % / year ** drawdown of O2 could persist for some
longer time (** the actual removal of O2 from the atmosphere via oxidation in the deeper ocean may
occur over a
timescale of 1000 years, but the oxydation of organic C in the ocean might be completed
over a significantly shorter time, so the actual removal of O2 from the atmosphere may be slower than 0.0022 % / year)-- but it still wouldn't have much total effect on the amount of atmospheric O2.