People point to the rally that
occurred after the market crash of 1929 as an example of an echo bubble.
Not exact matches
This
occurred after shock - price implosions in 1986 when Brent fell to $ 9 per barrel (Riyadh deliberately flooded the
market), in 1998 when Brent
crashed to $ 10 (OPEC failed to see the Asian crisis coming and increased quotas as demand was falling); and in 2008 at $ 36 (amid the Great Recession).
Still,
after accounting for the possibilities of some specific equities experiencing a disproportionate share of mini flash
crashes, and variations in trading activity creating more opportunities for mini flash
crashes to
occur, the evidence continues to suggest that an abnormal level of instability could have been detected in the U.S. equity
market during the test window on October 15, 2014.
While investors can hope that today is similar to August 1987, a moment's reflection about the
market crash that
occurred shortly
after August 1987 might dampen that hope a bit, particularly because that instance also featured overbought, overbullish and rising - yield conditions.
Just as real estate lending fuels land speculation, so the withdrawal of such credit leaves property
markets to decline, sometimes with a
crash, as
occurred in Japan
after 1990 when its financial bubble burst.
As an aside, Grantham also notes that no stock
market crash has
occurred until
after average investors have been dragged into the party's frenzied last hours, too late to make much money but just in time to have their portfolios gutted (again).
Seniors are now living longer, so high minimum withdrawal rates increase the risk of outliving their nest eggs — particularly when they are forced to make large withdrawals from portfolios
after a
market crash such as
occurred in 2008.
If Phelan was right, it seems we can't even predict stock
market crashes after they
occur.
Those who are prone to panic should think about pruning their exposure to the stock
market before the next
crash occurs rather than
after.