According to Editor Alan Moran in a post at Catallaxy Files blog, Anthony Watts's contribution is to illustrate «the trivial level of temperature rise that has
occurred over the past century (with no increase in the past eighteen years).
This rapid warming is consistent with the scientific understanding of how the climate should respond to a rapid increase in greenhouse gases like that which has
occurred over the past century, and the warming is inconsistent with the scientific understanding of how the climate should respond to natural external factors such as variability in solar output and volcanic activity.
So that adds up to about 8 - 12 inches of sea level rise by the year 2100 — not much different than that which has already
occurred over the past century.
If you remove anthropogenic forcing of the past century (i.e. hold CO2 at the preindustrial level of 280 ppm) and do test runs, including all known natural modes of internal variability that actually
occurred over the past century, including solar, ENSO, PDO, AMO, and volcanic forcing, no model run even comes close to simulating the climate after about 1960, with huge divergence occurring in about 1980.
Not exact matches
Because of the strong recent warming, the updated trend
over 1906 to 2005 is now 0.74 ± 0.18 degree C. Note that the 1956 to 2005 trend alone is 0.65 ± 0.15 degree C, emphasizing that the majority of 20th -
century warming
occurred in the
past 50 years.
Although the earth has experienced exceptional warming
over the
past century, to estimate how much more will
occur we need to know how temperature will respond to the ongoing human - caused rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide.
The overall retreat of several kilometers that has
occurred over the
past 20,000 years was interrupted by a stillstand or a re-advance of several hundred years at the beginning of the ACR, and then by increasingly minor glacial episodes at the end of the YD, at the beginning of the Holocene (around 10,000 years ago) and during the Little Ice Age (13th to 19th
centuries).
seems to be incompatible with the statement from his Annual review paper from 2000 (see abstract below) that: «The average surface temperature of the continents has increased by about 1.0 K
over the
past 5
centuries; half of this increase has
occurred in the twentieth
century alone.»
This story raises questions about the changes that have
occurred in society
over the
past century and the direction that life will take in the next that will provide fodder for classroom discussion.
As far as a ceiling goes, I highly recommend the book Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds which offers insight on a number of mania that have
occurred not just in the
past few decades, but
over the
centuries.
Reflecting the artistic, cultural and social changes that have
occurred locally and nationally
over the
past five years, many work in performative, socially - engaged and time - based media; others bring twenty - first -
century perspectives to traditional media, including painting, sculpture and drawing.
Moreover, greenhouse gas concentration increases of the magnitude observed
over the
past two
centuries have in the
past occured only taken place on timescales of millions of years.
««Of the rise in global atmospheric temperature
over the
past century, nearly 30 %
occurred between 1910 and 1940 when anthropogenic forcings were relatively weak.»
seems to be incompatible with the statement from his Annual review paper from 2000 (see abstract below) that: «The average surface temperature of the continents has increased by about 1.0 K
over the
past 5
centuries; half of this increase has
occurred in the twentieth
century alone.»
Just four events of M6 or larger have
occurred within 250 km of the April 25, 2015 earthquake
over the
past century.
States that while no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th
century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have
occurred in this basin
over the
past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified
The city's climate — like that of other communities across the Midwest — has changed measurably
over the
past half -
century.2 Heavy downpours now
occur about twice as often as they did a
century ago.3
In the
past few
centuries, smaller transitions (such as the ending of the Little Ice Age at about 1650 AD) probably
occurred over only a few decades at most.
As far as we know, the «airborne fraction» (percentage of emitted CO2 remaining atmospheric) has not been changing greatly
over the
past century, and if any change is
occurring, the fraction is perhaps increasing very slightly due to greater saturation of the oceanic sink.
On average in the United States, the amount of rain falling during the heaviest 1 percent of rainstorms has increased nearly 20 percent during the
past 50 years — almost three times the rate of increase in total precipitation.4, 5 The Midwest saw an even larger average increase of 31 percent, surpassed only by the Northeast (at 67 percent).4 Scientists attribute the rise in heavy precipitation to climate change that has already
occurred over the
past half -
century.6
Our study shows that if corals can adapt to warming that has
occurred over the
past 40 to 60 years, some coral reefs may persist through the end of this
century,» said study lead author Cheryl Logan, Ph.D., an assistant professor in California State University Monterey Bay's Division of Science and Environmental Policy.
Although the earth has experienced exceptional warming
over the
past century, to estimate how much more will
occur we need to know how temperature will respond to the ongoing human - caused rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide.
Some of this climate change may be due to the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere by the burning of fossil fuels
over the
past century, although an inspection of regional climate data shows most of the Sierra warming
occurred from 1910 through the early 1930s, long before the major emissions.
Again how is emissions reduction going to affect all these different facets of the climate system to bring about a reversal in what has
occurred over the
past half
century to the Great Lakes ice?
The fastest global sea level increase
over the
past 3,000 years
occurred during the 20th
century.
However, the Prudent Path authors fail to reference a recent paper (Kaufmann et al. 2009) which analyzed Arctic temperature changes
over a 2000 year period (0 to 1999 AD) and concluded that «the most recent 10 - year interval (1999 - 2008) was the warmest of the
past 200 decades» and that «4/5 of the warmest decades
occurred during the last
century».
The latter process — called decoupling — has already
occurred over the
past 50 years; but to reach peak impact by the end of this
century, we need to accelerate the pace of modernization and direct technological of change towards using high - energy, low - footprint technologies that enable us to economize natural resources.
Here, we argue that the twentieth and twenty - first
centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human - caused carbon emissions are likely to
occur, need to be placed into a long - term context that includes the
past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia,
over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist.
California's record warmest year
occurs at the peak of a sustained, long - term warming trend in the state
over the
past century or so — the same period
over which the Earth's global mean temperature has risen by 1.5 ° F.
If a trend, comparable to the one found in this study, persisted throughout the 20th
century, it would have provided a significant component of the global warming the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports to have
occurred over the
past 100 years,» he said.»
Argues that the twentieth and twenty - first
centuries, a period during which the overwhelming majority of human - caused carbon emissions are likely to
occur, need to be placed into a long - term context that includes the
past 20 millennia, when the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia,
over which time the projected impacts of anthropogenic climate change will grow and persist
Each year, 5,000 earthquakes strike the U.S.,
occurring in 39 states
over the
past century, according to the New York - based Insurance Information Institute.