Not exact matches
But it need not be so, if we begin to see how the imagination can create
models and metaphors, can use logically odd qualifiers, can present ideas
in poetic -
simple language, so that new onlooks may
occur.
The researchers reduced this complex
model to a much
simpler, «textbook»
model, which predicts that a phase transition, or a change
in flow direction, should
occur with certain changes to a lattice's dimensions — a transition that the team observed
in their experiments with bacteria.
Predicting if flutter
occurs, for a given flexible object
in a given fluid flow, is typically not the problem;
simple mathematical
models can often accomplish this.
The double pulsar PSR J0737 — 3039A / B consists of two neutron stars
in a highly relativistic orbit that displays a roughly 30 - second eclipse when pulsar A passes behind pulsar B. Describing this eclipse of pulsar A as due to absorption
occurring in the magnetosphere of pulsar B, we successfully used a
simple geometric
model to characterize the observed changing eclipse morphology and to measure the relativistic precession of pulsar B's spin axis around the total orbital angular momentum.
As a whole, now the conceptual transition
occurs from proving the inflationary paradigm
in general and testing some of its
simplest models to applying it for investigation of particle physics at super-high energies and of the actual history of the Universe
in the remote past using observational data.
Simple models are very different, and are more like an effective sensitivity and may well lack some of the nonlinear dynamics / regional processes that
occur in the real world and,
in a more limited way,
in the complex
models.
If you just
model a 1X and 2X
in excel over time, you'll see why the value decay
occurs; it's
simple mathematics.
One example is the THC «shutdown», which was «predicted» by
simpler models, but tends not to
occur in the more sophisticated
models, coupled AOGCMs.
Some of them are optimal fingerprint detection studies (estimating the magnitude of fingerprints for different external forcing factors
in observations, and determining how likely such patterns could have
occurred in observations by chance, and how likely they could be confused with climate response to other influences, using a statistically optimal metric), some of them use
simpler methods, such as comparisons between data and climate
model simulations with and without greenhouse gas increases / anthropogenic forcing, and some are even based only on observations.
Because these types of distortions impose societal costs beyond those of a
simple carbon tax, the economic impacts
modeled here will, if anything, be lower than would actually
occur in a regulatory scheme.
Within economics
modelling, attempts to
model the feedback mechanisms that
occur in the real economy are also really difficult — we know, for example, that investment
in new technologies will act as an incentive for the existing technologies it hopes to substitute to become more efficient (the sailing ship effect — i.e.
in the 50 years after the introduction of the steam ship, sailing ships made more efficiency improvements than they had
in the previous 3 centuries) but how to quantify something even as
simple as this is not easy BUT we have learnt a few ways to give sensible (order of magnitude) figures with time lags, the learning by doing effect and phased -
in substitution effects based on massive amounts of data.
So it seems to me that the
simple way of communicating a complex problem has led to several fallacies becoming fixed
in the discussions of the real problem; (1) the Earth is a black body, (2) with no materials either surrounding the systems or
in the systems, (3)
in radiative energy transport equilibrium, (4) response is chaotic solely based on extremely rough appeal to temporal - based chaotic response, (5) but at the same time exhibits trends, (6) but at the same time averages of chaotic response are not chaotic, (7) the mathematical
model is a boundary value problem yet it is solved
in the time domain, (8) absolutely all that matters is the incoming radiative energy at the TOA and the outgoing radiative energy at the Earth's surface, (9) all the physical phenomena and processes that are
occurring between the TOA and the surface along with all the materials within the subsystems can be ignored, (10) including all other activities of human kind save for our contributions of CO2 to the atmosphere, (11) neglecting to mention that if these were true there would be no problem yet we continue to expend time and money working on the problem.
The small thermal energy extractions that
occur in the OTEC plant are neglected so temperature and salinity characteristics
in the effluent are determined from
simple mixing
models.
Simple models are very different, and are more like an effective sensitivity and may well lack some of the nonlinear dynamics / regional processes that
occur in the real world and,
in a more limited way,
in the complex
models.
We show that this
occurs in spite of a decline
in radiative forcing that exceeds the decline
in ocean heat uptake — a circumstance that would otherwise be expected to lead to a decline
in global temperature when using the
simple energy balance
model described
in the post.