Sentences with phrase «ocean circulation response»

Changes in the total solar irradiance (TSI) with enhanced extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emission have been hypothesized to induce a dynamic air / ocean circulation response resulting from stratospheric ozone production (Lean & Rind 1998).

Not exact matches

Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.

Suppose also that — DESPITE THIS STABILIZING MECHANISM some as - yet unknown ocean circulation cycle operates that is the sole cause of the Holocene centennial scale fluctuations, and that this cycle has reversed and is operating today, yielding a temperature change that happens to mimic what models give in response to radiative forcing changes.

That's very interesting — I had assumed that the circulation of the atmosphere and oceans would be the «globaliser of temperature response».

Climate scientists would say in response that changes in ocean circulation can't sustain a net change in global temperature over such a long period (ENSO for example might raise or lower global temperature on a timescale of one or two years, but over decades there would be roughly zero net change).

Other research is looking into questions about how seamount populations change in response to climate - induced shifts in ocean circulation and whether habitats disturbed by human activity can recover.

In this model, enhanced seasonal contrasts through milankovitch forcing (Lourens et al., 2005), combined with a gradually warming late - Paleocene to early Eocene, forced a non-linear response in ocean circulation to warm intermediate waters.

eg «These studies provide new insights on the sensitivity and response of meridional ocean circulation to melt water inputs to the North Atlantic high latitudes (e.g., Bamberg et al., 2010; Irvali et al., 2012; Morley et al., 2011) and their potential role in amplifying small radiative variations into large a climate response through dynamic changes in ocean - atmosphere interactions (e.g., Morely et al., 2011; Irvali et al., 2012; Morley et al., 2014).

Using a complex coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation model (ECHAM5 / MPI - OM) climate response experiments with enhanced small - scale fluctuations are performed.

[Response: This is basically a shorthand for the overturning circulation of the oceans (i.e. what you would see if you were looking at the oceans side on).

For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for ocean forecasts, accuracy seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in ocean circulation and the biosphere response.

Suppose also that — DESPITE THIS STABILIZING MECHANISM some as - yet unknown ocean circulation cycle operates that is the sole cause of the Holocene centennial scale fluctuations, and that this cycle has reversed and is operating today, yielding a temperature change that happens to mimic what models give in response to radiative forcing changes.

Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)» seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric circulation.

There is so little understanding about how the ocean parses its response to forcings by 1) suppressing (local convective scale) deep water formation where excessive warming patterns are changed, 2) enhancing (local convective scale) deep water formation where the changed excessive warming patterns are co-located with increased evaporation and increased salinity, and 3) shifting favored deep water formation locations as a result of a) shifted patterns of enhanced warming, b) shifted patterns of enhanced salinity and c) shifted patterns of circulation which transport these enhanced ocean features to critically altered destinations.

[Response: Theoretically you could have a change in ocean circulation that could cause a drop in global mean temperature even while the total heat content of the climate system increased.

This deep ocean warming in the model occurred during negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), an index of the mean state of the north and south Pacific Ocean, and was most likely in response to intensification of the wind - driven ocean circulaocean warming in the model occurred during negative phases of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), an index of the mean state of the north and south Pacific Ocean, and was most likely in response to intensification of the wind - driven ocean circulaOcean, and was most likely in response to intensification of the wind - driven ocean circulaocean circulation.

Levine, X. J., and T. Schneider, 2011: Response of the Hadley circulation to climate change in an aquaplanet GCM coupled to a simple representation of ocean heat transport.

These models suggest that if the net effect of ocean circulation, water vapour, cloud, and snow feedbacks were zero, the approximate temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial levels would be a 1oC warming.

We thank Claudia Tebaldi for statistical advice; Stanley Jacobs for discussion of Southern Ocean circulation; Nathan Gillett for guidance on the transient climate response to emissions; Mark Merrifield for tidal modeling applied to the Alaskan coast; and Michael Oppenheimer for thoughtful comments on the manuscript.

Bjerknes, 1966: A possible response of the atmospheric Hadley circulation to equatorial anomalies of ocean temperature.

The observed climate is just the equilibrium response to such variations with the positions of the air circulation systems and the speed of the hydrological cycle always adjusting to bring energy differentials between all the many ocean and atmosphere layers back towards equilibrium (Wilde's Law?).

These external ones can affect long - term climate, and things like the MWP and LIA could be responses to those rather than ocean circulation changes (most skeptics would not deny this).

In a recent technical comment, Zhang et al. show that ocean dynamics play a central role in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the previous claims that «the AMO is a thermodynamic response of the ocean mixed layer to stochastic atmospheric forcing, and ocean circulation changes have no role in causing the AMO» are not justified.

I was formerly somewhat skeptical about the notion that the ocean «conveyor belt» circulation pattern could weaken abruptly in response to global warming.

As you doubtless know, polar amplification is driven by ocean circulation and probably represents a lagged response to forcing.

Patterns of ocean and atmosphere circulation shift in response to internal climate dynamics and at a rapid pace determined by the dynamics of the system rather than any external factor.

«The authors write that «the notorious tropical bias problem in climate simulations of global coupled general circulation models manifests itself particularly strongly in the tropical Atlantic,»... they state that «the climate bias problem is still so severe that one of the most basic features of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean — the eastward shoaling thermocline — can not be reproduced by most of the IPCC assessment report models,... as they describe it, «show that the bias in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has a major effect on sea - surface temperature (SST) response to a rapid change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMcirculation models manifests itself particularly strongly in the tropical Atlantic,»... they state that «the climate bias problem is still so severe that one of the most basic features of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean — the eastward shoaling thermocline — can not be reproduced by most of the IPCC assessment report models,... as they describe it, «show that the bias in the eastern equatorial Atlantic has a major effect on sea - surface temperature (SST) response to a rapid change in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMCirculation (AMOC).»

Forced Rossby waves occur as a response of the midtroposhere and high - troposphere atmospheric circulation to the external diabatic and orographic forcing (25, 39, 40), which arises, e.g., from the thermal contrast between land and oceans as well as from mountain ranges.

It is not clear that the world is warming post the 1998/2001 climate shift — that involved a climatically significant step change in albedo as a response to abrupt changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation.

Response to Comment on «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation» (Science)

El Niño is defined by SST anomalies in the eastern tropical Pacific while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a measure of the atmospheric circulation response in the Pacific - Indian Ocean region.

The advantage of recognising a reversed sign for the solar effect high up in the atmosphere is that it enables a scenario whereby the bottom up effects of ocean cycles and the top down effects of solar variability can be seen to be engaged in a complex ever changing dance with the primary climate response being changes in the tropospheric air circulation systems to give us the observed natural climate variability via cyclical latitudinal shifts in all the air circulation systems and notably the jet streams.

The response of atmospheric CO2 and climate to the reconstructed variability in solar irradiance and radiative forcing by volcanoes over the last millennium is examined by applying a coupled physical — biogeochemical climate model that includes the Lund - Potsdam - Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ - DGVM) and a simplified analogue of a coupled atmosphere — ocean general circulation model.

Clouds change in response to changes in ocean and atmosphere circulation - part of the natural variability of the system.

Steven Mosher: When you can match things like sea surface salt and ocean circulation, and ocean acidification with the model, when you find a force which can produce the kind of near instaneous response that you need, then you are onto something.

Some examples from energy balance model calculations indicate that: (1) solar variability has a near - global response, with the amplitude of response slightly larger over land; (2) volcanism has a proportionately larger amplitude of response over land than over ocean; and (3) the most oft - cited mode of internal variability, changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, has a hemispheric asymmetry in response.

Changes in near - coastal circulation or biochemistry seem to be altering surface ocean pH more quickly than can be explained by an equilibrium response to the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (Wootton and Pfister, 2012).

There is an «almost immediate» response, atmospheric with the roughly 90 day lag, then there is a roughly 27 month lagged response, that would be coupled atmosphere / ocean response related to the QBO, then there is a roughly 8.5 to 10 year response, that would be ocean basin circulation related.

Furthermore, the statistical methodology that is used to estimate the model can successfully recover the values for the transient climate response from temperature simulations generated by the coupled atmosphere - ocean general circulation models run for CMIP (26).

It includes results from a variety of different empirical approaches, including (1) time series analyses of the published temperature record; (2) examination of the response of the earth's outgoing radiation response to transient climate events; (3) calorimetric studies of the ocean - atmosphere system; (4) mechanisms for secular climate change arising from ocean circulation systems and astronomical influences; and (4) radiative and convective heat transfer in the oceans and atmosphere.

Climate scientists would say in response that changes in ocean circulation can't sustain a net change in global temperature over such a long period (ENSO for example might raise or lower global temperature on a timescale of one or two years, but over decades there would be roughly zero net change).

Sun, S., and R. Bleck, 2001: Atlantic thermohaline circulation and its response to increasing CO2 in a coupled atmosphere - ocean model.

Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Models also tend to simulate less intense ENSO events, in qualitative agreement with data, although there are large differences in magnitude and proposed mechanisms, and inconsistent responses of the associated teleconnections (Otto - Bliesner, 1999; Liu et al., 2000; Kitoh and Murakami, 2002; Otto - Bliesner et al., 2003).

Understanding the climate distribution and forcing for the Pliocene period may help improve predictions of the likely response to increased CO2 in the future, including the ultimate role of the ocean circulation in a globally warmer world.

The US AMOC Program, now in its ninth year, was developed as a US interagency program to increase understanding of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in response to the fourth near - term priority of the SOST Ocean Research Priorities Plan.

9.3.1 Global Mean Response 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 ConResponse 9.3.1.1 1 % / yr CO2 increase (CMIP2) experiments 9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a) 9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES) 9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change 9.3.2.1 Summary 9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 ConResponse to SRES Emission Scenarios 9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases 9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 ConResponse 9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity 9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake 9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes 9.3.4.4 Time - scales of response 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conresponse 9.3.5 Changes in Variability 9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability 9.3.5.2 Interannual variability 9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time - scale variability 9.3.5.4 Summary 9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events 9.3.6.1 Temperature 9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection 9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms 9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones 9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate 9.3.6.6 Conclusions

For the ice sheets the answer is probably no (but experts on the subject might have a better idea), but for the overturning circulation or the ecosystem changes, the answer is probably yes — i.e. a slower rate of warming could lead to a different response (allowing time for ocean mixing to mitigate the effects, or adaptation of species to the new conditions).

Here, we present an explanation for time - invariant land — sea warming ratio that applies if three conditions on radiative forcing are met: first, spatial variations in the climate forcing must be sufficiently small that the lower free troposphere warms evenly over land and ocean; second, the temperature response must not be large enough to change the global circulation to zeroth order; third, the temperature response must not be large enough to modify the boundary layer amplification mechanisms that contribute to making φ exceed unity.

When a full - depth ocean model is used, something intriguing happens: the loss of Arctic sea ice triggers a far - flung response that mimics climate change itself, including a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a build - up of heat in the tropical oceans over several decades, and a warming of the atmosphere a few miles above the tropics.

Rencurrel, M.C. * and B.E.J. Rose, Understanding the Hadley circulation response to wide variations in ocean heat transport.