On the one hand, a dangerous change in
ocean circulation seemed unlikely in the next century or two.
Further suggestions that D / O events in Greenland are generated by shifts in the North Atlantic
ocean circulation seem highly implausible, given the weak contribution of the high latitude ocean to the meridional flux of heat.
Not exact matches
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)»
seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in
ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric
circulation.
One does not have to worry about instabilities associated with ice sheets, feedback from the carbon cycle (even though this would
seem to already be coming into play), or instabilities associated with
ocean circulation.
For weather predictions, accuracy disappears within a few weeks — but for
ocean forecasts, accuracy
seems to have decadal scale accuracy — and when you go to climate forcing effects, the timescale moves toward centuries, with the big uncertainties being ice sheet dynamics, changes in
ocean circulation and the biosphere response.
Your statement that «Thus it is natural to look at the real world and see whether there is evidence that it behaves in the same way (and it appears to, since model hindcasts of past changes match observations very well)»
seems to indicate that you think there will be no changes in
ocean circulation or land use trends, nor any subsequent changes in cloud responses thereto or other atmospheric
circulation.
The weakening of the Walker
circulation arises in these models from processes that are fundamentally different from those of El Nià ± o — and is present in both mixed - layer and full -
ocean coupled models, so is not dependent on the models» ability to represent Kelvin waves (by the way, most of the IPCC - AR4 models have sufficient oceanic resolution to represent Kelvin waves and the physics behind them is quite simple — so of all the model deficiencies to focus on this one
seems a little odd).
Solar data
seems to have such a millenarian cycle that could drive a large internal variability in the
ocean circulation, for example.
1) It
seems to me that the key mechanism for any impact must be the changes that increased arctic
ocean temperatures will impose on the atmospheric
circulation feature known as the Polar Cell, and via this on the Ferrel cell which sits over the mid latitudes.
We don't need to assume any contribution at all from GHGs (unless of course, GHGs are what trigger the
ocean circulation changes, which doesn't
seem likely).
The interesting thing from a scientific perspective is that specifying the surface temperature in this region
seems to anchor the coupled atmosphere /
ocean circulations in a way that not only gives a better simulation of global average surface temperature, but also provides better simulations of the variability of key regional
circulation features.
Sequestration rates, on the other hand, changing the total of CO2 in the atmosphere, and hence the ppm concentration, has another timeframe entirely (regulated primarily by
ocean circulation exposing water that can absorb CO2), which you
seem strangely unaware of.
Also this wondrous piece of RealClimate University Science: «'' (regulated primarily by
ocean circulation exposing water that can absorb CO2), which you
seem strangely unaware of.»»
There
seems to be some sort of interaction between the air
circulation and the
ocean circulation which changes depending on whether the
oceans are globally warming the air or globally cooling it.
The global warming trend or cooling trend in the air, initiated by the
oceans, then leads on to all the variations in both
circulations that
seem to be causing so much puzzlement.
«Feb. 25, 2008 — Predictions that the 21st century is safe from major
circulation changes in the North Atlantic
Ocean may not be as comforting as they
seem, according to a Penn State researcher.»
The pre-Holocene climate shifts
seem to be well accounted for by dynamics of glacial meltoff, freshwater discharge, and the impact on the
ocean circulation... all of which is less of an issue in an initially warm climate, and the AR5 generation models give no indication that the overturning
circulation will be significantly impacted over the coming century.
What
seems more interesting is the change in
ocean and atmospheric
circulation that occurred in the 1998/2001 climate shift — climate shifts are a relatively new concept but one that is central to understanding climate.
The well - coupled SWAC — SWWA rainfall relationship
seems to be largely independent of the well - known effects of large - scale atmospheric
circulations such as the southern annular mode (SAM), El Niño — Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian
Ocean dipole (IOD), and ENSO Modoki (EM).
The seasonal climate may relate to changes in the
ocean circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted in an increased temperature and atmospheric pressure gradient between the east coast of North America and the Atlantic Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier condit
ocean circulation pattern prior to 4.6 Ma that resulted in an increased temperature and atmospheric pressure gradient between the east coast of North America and the Atlantic
Ocean, but this climate phase seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier condit
Ocean, but this climate phase
seems to be only a temporary condition, as underlying and overlying sediment are both consistent with drier conditions.
Changes in near - coastal
circulation or biochemistry
seem to be altering surface
ocean pH more quickly than can be explained by an equilibrium response to the rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (Wootton and Pfister, 2012).
We have a lot of very good models that
seem to do a very good job of modeling
ocean circulation.
While on first thought this might
seem undesirable because we are looking for a global number, it might make sense to separate them due to the large difference in land /
ocean ratio and the fact that atmospheric
circulation patterns isolate them WRT shorter term changes.
But given the ever - increasing intensity of these impacts - and the fact that the melting of Greenland only continues to speed up - it
seems likely the future will bring continued dramatic global changes in
ocean circulation.
I am, after all a teacher, and this
seemed like a good opportunity to explain why, for example, I thought more attention should be paid to sea level rise, which is ongoing and unstoppable and carries a real threat of acceleration, than to the unsupportable claims that the
ocean circulation was undergoing shutdown (Nature, December 2005).
This
seems to be caused primarily by a change in the
circulation patterns in the Pacific
Ocean, although solar cooling is also contributing to an extent that is uncertain.
Relevant text from the AR4 Chapter 8: «Atmosphere -
Ocean General
Circulation Models do not
seem to have difficulty in simulating IPO - like variability... [T] here has been little work evaluating the amplitude of Pacific decadal variability in AOGCMs.
This all
seems to point to some major change in the
ocean overturning
circulation having occurred in this run, resulting in the cold
ocean anomaly south of Greenland and substantial surface cooling in most areas.
Interesting for sure, vut the scientific payoff for using all this computer time doesn't
seem to be too high in the absence of observations of the
ocean circulation during this period with which to compare the simulations.
«The weakening and strengthening of the stratospheric
circulation seems to correspond with changes in
ocean circulation in the North Atlantic,» Reichler says.