The earlier attempts (The global cooing scare of the 70s failed) to damage western industrial states failed as temps began rising as
the ocean current phases went positive..
Not exact matches
The Pacific
Ocean's
current cool
phase is driving the global warming slowdown — but that countering effect is not going to last, scientists say.
I'm a fish geneticist so I won't bother commenting on «paleo -
ocean current - ology», but it seems to me that glaciation would result in a reduction of fresh water inputs to the North Atlantic (during the ice age) and would therefore be quite different from the mechanism in question (which is related to early
phases of global warming).
In terms of the so - called «pause», it becomes more and more clear that the
current cool
phase of the PDO is largely responsible for this «pause», but looking at the continued rise in
ocean heat content, and the nice job Cowtan & Way have done interpolated Arctic temperatures, we see that the «pause», may have reflected a slowdown in the rise of tropospheric temperatures, but the energy imbalance of the climate system continues quite strongly.
The Arctic is more subject to
ocean currents and to wind patterns and has its own circulatory
phases, which can flip.
The difference with THIS study is that they try hard to initialize it with an accurate representation of the
current state of the
ocean, and therefore try to get the
PHASE of the PDO right, so they can attempt a prediction of what will happen in the coming years.
La Nina / PDO is a perfect example where changes in
ocean currents /
ocean upwelling affect heat transfer between the
phases of the system (and cool the air)-- on a human time scale.
We have had lengthy heating
phase caused by a spurt of insolation, now we have had a big El Nino, a subsequent shift to La Nina and the resulting warm
currents moving up the the Western Pacific, causing warming polar
oceans and changes in atmospheric water vapor content.
Most interesting is that the about monthly variations correlate with the lunar
phases (peak on full moon) The Helsinki Background measurements 1935 The first background measurements in history; sampling data in vertical profile every 50 - 100m up to 1,5 km; 364 ppm underthe clouds and above Haldane measurements at the Scottish coast 370 ppmCO2 in winds from the sea; 355 ppm in air from the land Wattenberg measurements in the southern Atlantic
ocean 1925-1927 310 sampling stations along the latitudes of the southern Atlantic oceans and parts of the northern; measuring all oceanographic data and CO2 in air over the sea; high ocean outgassing crossing the warm water currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly av
ocean 1925-1927 310 sampling stations along the latitudes of the southern Atlantic
oceans and parts of the northern; measuring all oceanographic data and CO2 in air over the sea; high
ocean outgassing crossing the warm water currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly av
ocean outgassing crossing the warm water
currents north (> ~ 360 ppm) Buchs measurements in the northern Atlantic
ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly av
ocean 1932 - 1936 sampling CO2 over sea surface in northern Atlantic
Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen current, North Cape current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly av
Ocean up to the polar circle (Greenland, Iceland, Spitsbergen, Barents Sea); measuring also high CO2 near Spitsbergen (Spitsbergen
current, North Cape
current) 364 ppm and CO2 over sea crossing the Atlantic from Kopenhagen to Newyork and back (Brements on a swedish island Lundegards CO2 sampling on swedish island (Kattegatt) in summer from 1920 - 1926; rising CO2 concentration (+7 ppm) in the 20s; ~ 328 ppm yearly average
The changing
phases of Atlantic hurricane activity are not completely understood; but there appears to be a link to fluctuations in the thermohaline circulation, the global pattern of
ocean currents which in western Europe appears as the Gulf Stream.
The sun has recently gone into a less active
phase of fewer sun - spots, and the
ocean decadal
currents have changed from a warming to a cooling
phase.
So, despite most of the heat entering into the
ocean via the Pacific, there's no realistic expectation that all the heat storage during the
current negative
phase of the IPO would be stored there.
Figure 5 - Atlantic
ocean warming down to 1500 metres for the 1999 - 2012, a period covering the majority of the
current negative IPO
phase.
What's most relevant about plate tectonics is that the world will not get out of it's
current coldhouse
phase until the plates move and open up a gap for
ocean circulation around the planet near the tropics.
They confirmed that the
oceans have warmed substantially, most notably in the deeper layers, and that the strongest warming during this current negative IPO phase has been in the deep of the Southern and Atlantic O
oceans have warmed substantially, most notably in the deeper layers, and that the strongest warming during this
current negative IPO
phase has been in the deep of the Southern and Atlantic
OceansOceans.
One of the rationales given by Chen & Tung for dismissing the role of the IPO in deep
ocean warming is the expectation that the Pacific Ocean basin should have warmed more during the current (2000 - to present) IPO negative p
ocean warming is the expectation that the Pacific
Ocean basin should have warmed more during the current (2000 - to present) IPO negative p
Ocean basin should have warmed more during the
current (2000 - to present) IPO negative
phase.
It is further shown that the warm
phase of the AMO corresponds to a strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a weakening of the Atlantic subtropical cell (STC), which both induce an anomalous northward
current in the TNA subsurface
ocean.
Because the mean meridional temperature gradient of the subsurface
ocean is positive because of the temperature dome around 9 ° N, the advection by the anomalous northward
current cools the TNA subsurface
ocean during the warm
phase of the AMO.
The paper being discussed here makes the claim that the
current hiatus in warming is due to the heat going into the Atlantic
ocean as the Atlantic
ocean is currently in the 30 year cooling
phase of it's ~ 60 year warming / cooling cycle.
The main omissions in
current climatology are to ignore the oceanic role in setting and maintaining AND CHANGING the Earth's temperature and failing to recognise that the speed of the hydro cycle changes in response to those oceanic forcings.In 1988 when this all started no one acknowledged the significance of ENSO events globally or the existence of 30 year
phase shifts let alone a 500 year
ocean cycle.
Add variable
phases (rain, ice, liquid, gas), and particles, and the a huge range of forcings (Solar variability,
ocean currents, volcanoes, etc) and you have a very complex problem.
-- the sun - earth link is strong — sun and the earth oscillate at same rate, but the temperature has a
phase mod due
ocean currents — no hockey stick visible — etc. etc..
This should not be surprising because, as NASA has stated, «uneven heating from the sun drives the air and
ocean currents that produce the Earth's climate» Don Easterbrook, a geology professor and climate scientist, correctly predicted back in 2000 that the earth was entering a cooling
phase.
Do we really have the understanding and sensitivity in all of our measuring to capture the energy budget as it changes form,
phase, and location, or are there possibly slow changes in thermocline depths, hydrologic cycle speeds, atmospheric elevations, large
ocean currents etc, that can receive energy quickly but manifest it as temperature slowly or even imperceptibly in regard to our ability to capture these changes?