We see
ocean energy content increase or decrease as tropospheric energy content decreases or increases.
In the northern hemisphere due to the current land / sea distribution the more equatorward the cloud moves the more ocean surface it will cover thus reducing total solar input to the oceans and reducing the rate of accretion to
ocean energy content
It is a given that the existing models do not fully incorporate data or mechanisms involving cloudiness or global albedo (reflectivity) variations or variations in the speed of the hydrological cycle and that the variability in the temperatures of the ocean surfaces and the overall
ocean energy content are barely understood and wholly inadequately quantified in the infant attempts at coupled ocean / atmosphere models.
Thus a proportion of incoming solar energy (in the infrared) never gets into the oceans to affect the ocean heat content (I prefer the term
ocean energy content and will use it from now on).
Not exact matches
However, radiation changes at the top of the atmosphere from the 1980s to 1990s, possibly related in part to the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, appear to be associated with reductions in tropical upper - level cloud cover, and are linked to changes in the
energy budget at the surface and changes in observed
ocean heat
content.
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of
energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep
oceans and the change in the global heat
content (Figure 4).
This analysis is performed in An observationally based
energy balance for the Earth since 1950 (Murphy 2009) which adds up heat
content from the
ocean, atmosphere, land and ice.
Ocean heat
content variability is thus a critical variable for detecting the effects of the observed increase in greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere and for resolving the Earth's overall
energy balance.
The biggest increases in
ocean heat
content were in those deeper layers, showing «that the deep
ocean has played an increasingly important role in the
ocean energy budget since 1998,» according to the study.
The increase in
ocean heat
content is much larger than any other store of
energy in the Earth's heat balance over the two periods 1961 to 2003 and 1993 to 2003, and accounts for more than 90 % of the possible increase in heat
content of the Earth system during these periods.
The
ocean heat
content change is from this section and Levitus et al. (2005c); glaciers, ice caps and Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets from Chapter 4; continental heat
content from Beltrami et al. (2002); atmospheric
energy content based on Trenberth et al. (2001); and arctic sea ice release from Hilmer and Lemke (2000).
Positive
energy content change means an increase in stored
energy (i.e., heat
content in
oceans, latent heat from reduced ice or sea ice volumes, heat
content in the continents excluding latent heat from permafrost changes, and latent and sensible heat and potential and kinetic
energy in the atmosphere).
The upper
ocean, which scientists know captures much of the excess
energy trapped in the atmosphere, also reached its largest heat
content on record in 2017, Arndt said.
Measurement of
ocean heat
content is the most critical observation, as nearly 90 percent of the
energy surplus is stored in the
ocean [64]--[65].
Even if ultimately there is real confidence in
ocean heat
content data — i.e. the trends exceed the differences in data handling — without understanding changes in reflected SW and emitted IR it remains impossible to understand the global
energy dynamic.
With the current GHG
content in the atmosphere, more solar
energy arrives than leaves via radiation -LRB-.85 + / -.15 Watt / m ^ 2), which raises the heat
content of the terrestrial system, i.e., the average temperature over the whole earth +
oceans + atmosphere.
Numerous denier arguments involving slight fluctuations in the global distribution of warmer vs cooler sea surface areas as supposed explanations of climate change neglect all the
energy that goes into
ocean heat
content, melting large ice deposits and so forth.
Is it not possible that the polar barometric events act as significant pipelines for the re-emission of the
ocean entrapped LW in the first three meters, by transporting the oceanic heat
content energy for stellar release?
Given the total
energy content of the
oceans, the result could only ever be minimal overall warming of that part of the
ocean that exchanges
energy with the troposphere.
In terms of the so - called «pause», it becomes more and more clear that the current cool phase of the PDO is largely responsible for this «pause», but looking at the continued rise in
ocean heat
content, and the nice job Cowtan & Way have done interpolated Arctic temperatures, we see that the «pause», may have reflected a slowdown in the rise of tropospheric temperatures, but the
energy imbalance of the climate system continues quite strongly.
The current
energy imbalance at the surface (as demonstrated by the increasing heat
content of the
oceans) implies there is at least a further 0.5 deg C surface warming in the «pipeline».
With
ocean heat
content, including the IPWP, running at record high levels (literally off the chart), how much
energy is released in this El Niño and how quickly it fills back in is of keen interest to me.
Finally, I note that you have not acknowledged the falsification I gave in 231 of your claim that all the
energy of the
ocean heat
content increase since 2000 was first sitting in the atmosphere in 1979.
I'd just assumed that: man's path = total
ocean heat
content leash length = bounds on
energy transfers dog jiggles driven by
ocean oscillations, solar jiggles, volcanoes...
The key points of the paper are that: i) model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes of
ocean heat
content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess
energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the
ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating «in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.
Paul S (# 1)-- Since the Planck Response dominates over positive feedback responses to temperature, wouldn't a La Nina - like failure of surface temperature to rise lead to an increase rather than a reduction in
energy accumulation compared with accumulation during a surface warming — presumably a small increase, so that the observed rise in
ocean heat
content would still be substantial?
We are just changing the order of events a bit because an increase in surface temperatures would in any case eventually increase the
energy content of the
oceans.
The RF time series are linked to the observations of
ocean heat
content and temperature change through an
energy balance model and a stochastic model, using a Bayesian approach to estimate the ECS from the data.
Given that the most of the melting that goes on is from the underneath (i.e. under the water) and
ocean heat
content is at modern highs, and the
oceans have even released a bit less
energy than average over the past 15 years, it is not a coincidence that ice would de line even faster during this period.
In particular, that the
energy content of the
oceans should be increasing.
Anthropogenic GHG warming is about the Earth's
energy balance, and thus, looking at an average global near - surface temperature, or the total
ocean heat
content can tell us something useful about that
energy balance.
Ocean heat
content increases (and the closely related sea level rise) is a far better long - term proxy for
energy in the climate system.
And of course, the issue of the consistent rise in the best metric of Earth's
energy balance -
ocean heat
content and the closely related sea level rise, get's ignored as though, through some miracle, a warming
ocean holding in the bulk of the anthropogenic
energy imbalance gives we troposphere dwelling creatures a free pass.
Everything else that might try to alter that base level simply results in atmospheric circulation changes (atmosphere includes
oceans for this purpose) that adjust the rate of conversion between kinetic and potential
energy so as to keep the base level of system
energy content stable.
Hurricanes draw their
energy from the
ocean and warmer waters provide an increase in both temperature and moisture
content of the tropical atmosphere, which leads to storm intensification.
If you take the amount of crude oil extracted since 1850 (estimates vary, but maybe 200 billion tonnes = 200 * (10 ^ 9) * (10 ^ 3) kg) and multiply by the
energy density of crude oil (~ 50MJ / kg) the result comes out at about 10 ^ 22 J which is an order of magnitude lower than the increase in
ocean heat
content in the upper 700m since the 1950s (~ 10 ^ 23J).
Several recent studies have also concluded that it is necessary to include data from the deep
ocean in order to reconcile global heat
content and the TOA
energy imbalance, which DK12 failed to do.
A better metric to gauge to real planetary effects of the TOA GHG induced imbalance is of course to combine combine troposphere anomalies with
ocean heat
content anomalies, as well as cryosphere anomalies, to get a net Earth system
energy imbalance.
Flatline in total air heat
content, flatline in air temperature, and yet some
energy is flowing from the air into the
ocean, going downwards.
For the
ocean heat
content to vary appreciably [the lag is a red herring], the
energy input [your q] has to vary appreciably too, and it doesn't.
Given that it is all eventually going to come back to the issue of the gradual gain we've been seeing in
ocean heat
content over many decades, the most accurate thing we can say is that 2014's warmth is very consistent with the general accumulation of
energy in Earth's climate system caused by increasing GH gases and is well accounted for dynamically in global climate models.
Theo Goodwin, the
ocean heat
content change doesn't average out to zero in the long term, only those internal processes you mention which shuffle
energy around.
What is lacking is any theory for an internally produced
energy source of this magnitude that can rival the changing CO2 in its effect on
ocean heat
content.
The bottom line is that all available
ocean heat
content data show that the
oceans and global climate continue to build up heat at a rapid pace, consistent with the global
energy imbalance observed by satellites.
For as much as atmospheric temperatures are rising, the amount of
energy being absorbed by the planet is even more striking when one looks into the deep
oceans and the change in the global heat
content (Figure 4).
We must maintain and extend the existing global climate observing systems [Riser et al., 2016; von Schuckmann et al., 2016] as well as develop improved coupled (
ocean - atmosphere) climate assessment and prediction tools to ensure reliable and continuous monitoring for Earth's
energy imbalance,
ocean heat
content, and sea level rise.
Since the IPCC's graph above up to 2003 shows that most of the
energy from global warming is in the
oceans, to a first approximation,
Ocean Heat
Content change since then is going to be close enough to the Total Heat
Content change.
A weaker or ENSO neutral period simply means the
oceans are keeping more of their
energy, and in fact,
ocean heat
content has been growing in the central to western Pacific at depths below the surface as shown in the latest ENSO weekly report:
The evolution of global mean surface temperatures, zonal means and fields of sea surface temperatures, land surface temperatures, precipitation, outgoing longwave radiation, vertically integrated diabatic heating and divergence of atmospheric
energy transports, and
ocean heat
content in the Pacific is documented using correlation and regression analysis.
Ideally the zero point would be modulated by
ocean heat
content and / or ssts, since it is the comparison between
energy into the
oceans vs.
energy radiated back out that determines warming or cooling, but we don't have much historical ohc or sst data so a fixed zero point would seem to be the best that can be done.