Discrepancies in the glacial climate simulations are further amplified by short integration times, as the deep
ocean equilibrates on millennial timescales.
Because the chemistry of
the ocean equilibrates with that of the atmosphere (on time scales of decades to centuries), methane oxidized to CO2 in the water column will eventually increase the atmospheric CO2 burden (Archer and Buffett, 2005).
Not exact matches
That only after the atmosphere has «
equilibrated» with THAT
ocean, will the atmospheric temperature have peaked?
Alastair, the atmosphere
equilibrates with the upper
ocean whose CO2 / HCO3 - / CO32 - content is about the same size.
[OOOPS; this nonlinear effect puts their «alternative concept» into the realm of Trump administration «alternative facts» — BD] Although the deep
ocean could dissolve 70 to 80 % of the expected anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and the sediments could neutralize another 15 % it takes some 400 years for the deep
ocean to exchange with the surface and thousands more for changes in sedimentary calcium carbonate to
equilibrate with the atmosphere.
Alastair, the atmosphere
equilibrates with the upper
ocean whose CO2 / HCO3 - / CO32 - content is about the same size.
After all, if average surface temperature is 15 C, wouldn't you expect land and
ocean below the surface to
equilibrate at roughly that temperature (with a slightly rising gradient to account for the flow of Earth's internal heat)?
If the
ocean is too hot for life to fix calcium carbonate, or lacking in nutrients, saturation of bicarbonate will result and the process will
equilibrates back toward gaseous CO2.
The CO2 concentration of the atmosphere is going up continuously, and so it invades the
ocean as it
equilibrates with warm surface waters.
However, a lot is not: instead it contributes to the overall warming of the deep
ocean that has to occur for the climate system to
equilibrate.
Solar forcing has increased over the 20th century and given that the
oceans have not yet had time to
equilibrate to the new levels of forcing, it must have contributed some to the recent warming, in fact, that equlibration was further delayed by the cooling period, so the unrealized climate commitment would have been greater than ordinarily expected given that most of the increase in solar activity occurred in the first half of the century.
The reasons are also based on the physics, which require that initial equilibration involves the rapidly
equilibrating sinks in the
ocean mixed layer and some terrestrial sources, while the overall decay rate that involves slower equilibration with larger sinks is much slower.
This makes sense because it takes time to
equilibrate an excess of CO2 in the atmosphere with the
ocean, and the shallow
ocean responds faster than intermediate or deep water, so the ratio of the land to marine signals is therefore proportional to the carbon emissions rate.
I understand that bottom
ocean does not
equilibrate with 5000C of Earth crust because of slow mixing with colder water coming from arctic, as explained by michael sweet@11, thanks!.
Once the
ocean has
equilibrated to an impulse of CO2 with a half - life of ~ 5 years, both the
ocean and the atmosphere have a higher level of carbon than they did before.
The reference to lack of warming from 1940 - 1970 suggests that he sees this lack of warming as an indication that the
oceans had already
equilibrated to the high level of solar forcing, but this conditional was not included in his original statement.
For example, the
ocean temperature may have
equilibrated by that time.
With an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS); fully
equilibrating ocean temperatures requires thousands of years!
You use the land +
ocean global temperature record, which ignores the fact that the
oceans have not
equilibrated to the current forcings including CFC.
Due to the
ocean's buffering capacity and the biological pump, as seen in the graph below, the upper
ocean can experience upwelling that drives CO2 levels to 3 times higher than what would be expected from
equilibrating with the atmosphere.
That only after the atmosphere has «
equilibrated» with THAT
ocean, will the atmospheric temperature have peaked?
The only possible explanation for why the average temperature of the
ocean is 4C is because that is the average surface temperature of the earth taken over a period of time long enough for convection and conduction to
equilibrate the entire volume.
It's possible that the
ocean would have
equilibrated with atmospheric CO2, reducing the effect.
The way I interpret that is that the higher climate sensitivity must either involve different heat transfer modes / patterns, or that it involves a different temperature rise path, with more of the increase backloaded (ie if most of the increase for high sensitivity comes after 2070, then there's less time for the
oceans to
equilibrate than there would be, if most of the temperature increase was done by 2030).