And the sea surface temperature and
ocean heat content data do not support the existence of a human - induced global warming signal.
Not exact matches
Rather than use a model - based estimate, as
did Hansen (2005) and Trenberth (2009), the authors achieve this by calculating it from observations of
ocean heat content (down to 1800 metres) from the PMEL / JPL / JIMAR
data sets over the period July 2005 to June 2010 - a time period dominated by the superior ARGO - based system.
And since we don't have good
ocean heat content data, nor any satellite observations, or any measurements of stratospheric temperatures to help distinguish potential errors in the forcing from internal variability, it is inevitable that there will be more uncertainty in the attribution for that period than for more recently.
Previous work by Barnett's group showed that coupled models when forced with greenhouse gases
did give
ocean heat content changes similar to that shown in the
data.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea - surface temperatures and upper
ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface, although much less than the cooling at depth» though they
do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST trend — but again, no actual
data analysis of the SST trend is reported.
Unfortunately we
do not have any reliable and comprehensive measurements of upper
ocean temperature and
heat content prior to 2003, when ARGO measurements replaced the old expendable and spotty XBT
data.
I don't know about all of you, but I
do find that the uncertainty around e.g. the various issues related to
ocean heat content or issues regarding connecting the Argo float network to other
data networks is SO much better covered in Judith's bizarre and uniquely repetitive mischaracterizations of other scientists» comments, than by the published science and its critical review.
The increase in deep
ocean heat content is also a robust result in
data sets that
do not include reanalysis.
Several recent studies have also concluded that it is necessary to include
data from the deep
ocean in order to reconcile global
heat content and the TOA energy imbalance, which DK12 failed to
do.
The
data used in estimating the Levitus et al. (2005a)
ocean temperature fields (for the above
heat content estimates)
do not include sea surface temperature (SST) observations, which are discussed in Chapter 3.
However, as we recently discussed, the increase in deep
ocean heat content is a robust result in
data sets that
do not include reanalysis.
Ideally the zero point would be modulated by
ocean heat content and / or ssts, since it is the comparison between energy into the
oceans vs. energy radiated back out that determines warming or cooling, but we don't have much historical ohc or sst
data so a fixed zero point would seem to be the best that can be
done.
Unfortunately, we don't have good
ocean heat content data for this period, while the
data we
do have — global mean atmospheric surface temperature — is dominated by
ocean oscillations.
Actually Fielding's use of that graph is quite informative of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out of that
data set), or the complete passing over of short term variability vs longer term trends, or the other measures and indicators of climate change from
ocean heat content and sea levels to changes in ice sheets and minimum sea ice levels, or the passing over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on temperatures... etc..
Then about three years ago, those same scientists, using those same
data sets, admitted there was a pause, and spent their energy explaining why it didn't matter (
ocean heat content being a better proxy was the most popular).
Gavin, I think it would be worth adding to the post 1) the main reason why there was so much doubt about the Lyman et al results (the unphysical melt amounts for 2003 - 5), 2) the expected role of GRACE in obtaining a reliable result, 3) the fact that the ARGOs don't measure the deep
oceans, and 4) that it's inappropriate to take the remaining ARGO
data (shown in the Lyman et al correction to be essentially flat for the last two years) and draw any conclusions about
ocean heat content trends for that period.
As for
ocean heat content, Argo hasn't been in the water long enough to show a clear signal, and there have been problems with the
data, including a significant correction (you
do recall the correction to the UAH satellite record after years of insistence that their
data showed the surface temp record trends were completely wrong?).
I don't prefer one over the other as an intrinsic metric (they provide two different pieces of information), but I find the
ocean heat content data to be a much less mature
data set than the surface temperature
data set.
Or should we start with Judith's neglecting to mention in her recent WSJ op - ed that newer
data exists for the calculation she
did with Lewis, especially for
ocean heat content?
Does anyone have the formula to calculate the
ocean heat content from temperature
data.
OVERVIEW Before the ARGO floats were deployed, there were so few temperature and salinity observations at depths below 700 meters that the NODC
does not present
ocean heat content data during that period for depths of 0 - 2000 meters on an annual basis.