[2] This, in turn, could have driven the higher rate of increase in
ocean heat content shown in [1].
The graph of
ocean heat content shows a slight decline in the year 2010; this co-occurred with a decline in sea surface and a record (or near record) surface temperature.
yet your middle figure for
ocean heat content shows no significant rise until mid 80s.
New estimates of
ocean heat content show a growing large discrepancy between ocean heat content integrated for the upper 300 vs 700 vs total depth.
All recent measurements of
ocean heat content show a rate of increase of about half of Hansen's 0.85 W / m2 at worst and probably more like 0.25 W / m2 over the last two decades.
He agrees that the Increase in
ocean heat content shows that the earth has continued to gain energy during the so called «pause» or «hiatus».
Balmaseda et al. (2013) suggested that changes in the winds have resulted in a recent heat accumulation in the deep sea that has masked the surface warming and that
the ocean heat content shows a steady increase.
Not exact matches
It is also not influencing increased
ocean heat content, melting ice caps and glaciers, satellites
showing tropospheric warming or strato cooling, etc
The purple lines in the graph below
show how the
heat content of the whole
ocean has changed over the past five decades.
Contributions to the event arising from changes in
ocean heat content were
shown to be negligible.
You speak of
heat going into the
oceans, but didn't the last IPCC report
show model projections of
ocean heat content vs observations, and there was no extra
heat in the
oceans?
The biggest increases in
ocean heat content were in those deeper layers,
showing «that the deep
ocean has played an increasingly important role in the
ocean energy budget since 1998,» according to the study.
Figure 5.1
shows two time series of
ocean heat content for the 0 to 700 m layer of the World Ocean, updated from Ishi et al. (2006) and Levitus et al. (2005a) for 1955 to 2005, and a time series for 0 to 750 m for 1993 to 2005 updated from Willis et al. (2
ocean heat content for the 0 to 700 m layer of the World
Ocean, updated from Ishi et al. (2006) and Levitus et al. (2005a) for 1955 to 2005, and a time series for 0 to 750 m for 1993 to 2005 updated from Willis et al. (2
Ocean, updated from Ishi et al. (2006) and Levitus et al. (2005a) for 1955 to 2005, and a time series for 0 to 750 m for 1993 to 2005 updated from Willis et al. (2004).
However, the large - scale nature of
heat content variability, the similarity of the Levitus et al. (2005a) and the Ishii et al. (2006) analyses and new results
showing a decrease in the global
heat content in a period with much better data coverage (Lyman et al., 2006), gives confidence that there is substantial inter-decadal variability in global
ocean heat content.
The time series
shows an overall trend of increasing
heat content in the World
Ocean with interannual and inter-decadal variations superimposed on this trend.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003
show a significant increasing trend in
ocean heat content.
The geographical distribution of the linear trend of 0 to 700 m
heat content for 1955 to 2003 for the World
Ocean is
shown in Figure 5.2.
Examination of the geographical distribution of the differences in 0 to 700 m
heat content between the 1977 — 1981 and 1965 — 1969 pentads and the 1986 — 1990 and 1977 — 1981 pentads
shows that the pattern of
heat content change has spatial scales of entire
ocean basins and is also found in similar analyses by Ishii et al. (2006).
Observed changes in
ocean heat content have now been
shown to be inconsistent with simulated natural climate variability, but consistent with a combination of natural and anthropogenic influences both on a global scale, and in individual
ocean basins.
The key observation here is the increase in
ocean heat content over the last half century (the figure below
shows three estimates of the changes since 1955).
You speak of
heat going into the
oceans, but didn't the last IPCC report
show model projections of
ocean heat content vs observations, and there was no extra
heat in the
oceans?
The
ocean heat content analysis by Barnett (and in other groups)
show that the changes are most consistent with the GHGs becoming increasingly dominant over this time.
In Balmaseda et al. paper, they
show very nicely the changes in the
ocean heat content (OHC) since the late 1950s and how during the last decade the OHC has substantially increased in the deep
ocean while in the first 300 and 700 meters it has stalled.
This is supported by historic observations (Figure 1), which
shows roughly decade - long hiatus periods in upper
ocean heat content during the 1960s to 1970s, and the 1980s to 1990s.
Previous work by Barnett's group
showed that coupled models when forced with greenhouse gases did give
ocean heat content changes similar to that
shown in the data.
Some people looked at parts of that work (for example, the lower right panel of Figure 1) and point out how the climate model
oceans show a smooth and pretty much unbroken increase in
heat content over the historical period.
You may now understand why global temperature, i.e.
ocean heat content,
shows such a strong correlation with atmospheric CO2 over the last 800,000 years — as
shown in the ice core records.
The chart
shows that starting in the late 1940's, we have been able to measure the
heat content of the top 2000 meters of
ocean accurately enough so that annual changes in
ocean heat content of less than 1e22 joules can be detected and tracked.
This is at least ten additional years compared to the majority of previously published studies that have used the instrumental record in attempts to constrain the ECS.We
show that the additional 10 years of data, and especially 10 years of additional
ocean heat content data, have significantly narrowed the probability density function of the ECS.
For example, as discussed in Nuccitelli et al. (2012), the
ocean heat content data set compiled by a National Oceanographic Data Center (NODC) team led by Sydney Levitus
shows that over the past decade, approximately 30 percent of
ocean heat absorption has occurred in the deeper
ocean layers, consistent with the results of Balmaseda et al. (2013).
Increasing
ocean heat content also
shows no recovery of Arctic sea ice anywhere in the cards.
Figure 5.1
shows two time series of
ocean heat content for the 0 to 700 m layer of the World Ocean, updated from Ishi et al. (2006) and Levitus et al. (2005a) for 1955 to 2005, and a time series for 0 to 750 m for 1993 to 2005 updated from Willis et al. (2
ocean heat content for the 0 to 700 m layer of the World
Ocean, updated from Ishi et al. (2006) and Levitus et al. (2005a) for 1955 to 2005, and a time series for 0 to 750 m for 1993 to 2005 updated from Willis et al. (2
Ocean, updated from Ishi et al. (2006) and Levitus et al. (2005a) for 1955 to 2005, and a time series for 0 to 750 m for 1993 to 2005 updated from Willis et al. (2004).
An integration of the sunspot number
shows us that the
ocean heat content rose all the way from 1934 to 2003.
The geographical distribution of the linear trend of 0 to 700 m
heat content for 1955 to 2003 for the World
Ocean is
shown in Figure 5.2.
Show data which
shows ocean heat content increasing and sea surface temperatures increasing during a prolonged solar minimum period or vice versa.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003
show a significant increasing trend in
ocean heat content.
The time series
shows an overall trend of increasing
heat content in the World
Ocean with interannual and inter-decadal variations superimposed on this trend.
It isn't — Wong et al
show that
ocean heat content peaking in 1998 and the ARGO steric
heat content is not sufficient to turn that around.
So where do all these graphs
showing global
heat content that include the
heat hiding in the deep
ocean come from?
The second plot
shows the calculated
Ocean Heat Content from the «Callendar model» fitted with the above parameters, and compares it with the 0 - 700m data held by NOAA, based on Levitus.
The bottom line is that all available
ocean heat content data
show that the
oceans and global climate continue to build up
heat at a rapid pace, consistent with the global energy imbalance observed by satellites.
Since the IPCC's graph above up to 2003
shows that most of the energy from global warming is in the
oceans, to a first approximation,
Ocean Heat Content change since then is going to be close enough to the Total
Heat Content change.
This map
shows trends in global
ocean heat content, from the surface to 2,000 meters deep.
The upper figure
shows changes in
ocean heat content since 1958, while the lower map
shows ocean heat content in 2017 relative to the average
ocean heat content between 1981 and 2010, with red areas
showing warmer
ocean heat content than over the past few decades and blue areas
showing cooler.
I've presented videos and gif animations to
show the impacts of ENSO on ISCCP Total Cloud Amount data (with cautions about that dataset), CAMS - OPI precipitation data, NOAA's Trade Wind Index (5S - 5N, 135W - 180) anomaly data, RSS MSU TLT anomaly data, CLS (AVISO) Sea Level anomaly data, NCEP / DOE Reanalysis - 2 Surface Downward Shortwave Radiation Flux (dswrfsfc) anomaly data, Reynolds OI.v2 SST anomaly data and the NODC's
ocean heat content data.
The figures below
shows ocean heat content for each year in the region of the
ocean between the surface and 2,000 meters in depth (comprising the bulk of the world's
oceans), as well as a map of 2017 anomalies.
A weaker or ENSO neutral period simply means the
oceans are keeping more of their energy, and in fact,
ocean heat content has been growing in the central to western Pacific at depths below the surface as
shown in the latest ENSO weekly report:
I say the
ocean heat content in the Atlantic is dropping, you
show trend lines.
«Global net energy budget is
shown as a graph that takes account of net radiation received,
ocean heat content change, and other net energy changes from melting sea ice, glaciers, etc..
The rate of warming as measured by
ocean heat content changes over the last 4 years
shows that we have DOUBLED the top - of - atmosphere energy imbalance from 0.6 watts per meter squared to 1.1 watts per meter squared in the last 7 years.