Gavin, I think it would be worth adding to the post 1) the main reason why there was so much doubt about the Lyman et al results (the unphysical melt amounts for 2003 - 5), 2) the expected role of GRACE in obtaining a reliable result, 3) the fact that the ARGOs don't measure the deep oceans, and 4) that it's inappropriate to take the remaining ARGO data (shown in the Lyman et al correction to be essentially flat for the last two years) and draw any conclusions about
ocean heat content trends for that period.
For instance, Figure 15 compares the various different estimates of
ocean heat content trends.
Johnson et al. (2007) estimated that the deep ocean could add an additional 2 - 10 % to the upper
ocean heat content trend, which is likely to grow in importance as the anthropogenic warming signal propagates to increasing depth with time.
Figure 3.2: b) Observation - based estimates of annual five - year running mean global mean mid-depth (700 — 2000 m) ocean heat content in ZJ (Levitus et al., 2012) and the deep (2000 — 6000 m) global
ocean heat content trend from 1992 — 2005 (Purkey and Johnson, 2010), both with one standard error uncertainties shaded (see legend).
While reading this piece, I discovered an interesting point from the «Corrected» global
ocean heat content trend, the 11th picture in the page:
Not exact matches
Based on the linear
trend, for the 0 to 3,000 m layer for the period 1961 to 2003 there has been an increase of
ocean heat content of approximately 14.2 ± 2.4 × 1022 J, corresponding to a global
ocean volume mean temperature increase of 0.037 °C during this period.
Linear
trends (1955 — 2003) of change in
ocean heat content per unit surface area (W m — 2) for the 0 to 700 m layer, based on the work of Levitus et al. (2005a).
A comparison of the linear
trends from these two series indicates that about 69 % of the increase in
ocean heat content during 1955 to 1998 (the period when estimates from both time series are available) occurred in the upper 700 m of the World O
ocean heat content during 1955 to 1998 (the period when estimates from both time series are available) occurred in the upper 700 m of the World
OceanOcean.
The time series shows an overall
trend of increasing
heat content in the World
Ocean with interannual and inter-decadal variations superimposed on this
trend.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing
trend in
ocean heat content.
The geographical distribution of the linear
trend of 0 to 700 m
heat content for 1955 to 2003 for the World
Ocean is shown in Figure 5.2.
Even if ultimately there is real confidence in
ocean heat content data — i.e. the
trends exceed the differences in data handling — without understanding changes in reflected SW and emitted IR it remains impossible to understand the global energy dynamic.
Predictions related to the impact of pinatubo, post 1984
trends, the «satellite cooling» mismatch, lgm tropical sst, water vapor increases,
ocean heat content etc have all been made and verified within a short time period.
«Basically the interdecadal variability of
ocean heat content observed previously (which has been the source of some debate and criticism) becomes smaller but the long - term
trend does not change.
This sounds good since the
trend in
ocean heat content would be very, very close to the
trend for the whole system, but just try finding any sort of calculation of this metric on his site.
To clarify my above comment, I was suggesting that the observed rise in
ocean heat content would be substantial with or without the La Nina effect, representing primarily the persistence of a long term warming
trend.
One thing I would have liked to see in the paper is a quantitative side - by - side comparison of sea - surface temperatures and upper
ocean heat content; all the paper says is that only «a small amount of cooling is observed at the surface, although much less than the cooling at depth» though they do report that it is consistent with 2 - yr cooling SST
trend — but again, no actual data analysis of the SST
trend is reported.
For the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian
Oceans the increases of
heat content (linear
trends) are respectively 7.7, 3.3, and 3.5 x 1022 J.
Furthermore, this claim fails to note the long - term
trend in
ocean heat content, which is inexorably upward.
Apparently, in the last decade or so, surface and lower troposphere temperature has risen more slowly than the long term
trend, but
ocean heat content to 2 km has risen faster than the previous two decades.
We asked you to support your claim that the resolution of the oceanic temperature data is not sufficient to make a determination of a
trend in
ocean heat content, which you have yet to provide.
You made a specific claim, that the resolution of the data is not sufficient to make a determination of a
trend in
ocean heat content.
Linear
trends (1955 — 2003) of change in
ocean heat content per unit surface area (W m — 2) for the 0 to 700 m layer, based on the work of Levitus et al. (2005a).
The consistency between these two data sets gives confidence in the
ocean temperature data set used for estimating depth - integrated
heat content, and supports the
trends in SST reported in Chapter 3.
The geographical distribution of the linear
trend of 0 to 700 m
heat content for 1955 to 2003 for the World
Ocean is shown in Figure 5.2.
Based on the linear
trend, for the 0 to 3,000 m layer for the period 1961 to 2003 there has been an increase of
ocean heat content of approximately 14.2 ± 2.4 × 1022 J, corresponding to a global
ocean volume mean temperature increase of 0.037 °C during this period.
We assess the
heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available
heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing
trend in
ocean heat content.
A comparison of the linear
trends from these two series indicates that about 69 % of the increase in
ocean heat content during 1955 to 1998 (the period when estimates from both time series are available) occurred in the upper 700 m of the World O
ocean heat content during 1955 to 1998 (the period when estimates from both time series are available) occurred in the upper 700 m of the World
OceanOcean.
The time series shows an overall
trend of increasing
heat content in the World
Ocean with interannual and inter-decadal variations superimposed on this
trend.
The lack of a statistically significant warming
trend in GMST does not mean that the planet isn't warming, firstly because GMST doesn't include the warming of the
oceans (see many posts on
ocean heat content) and secondly because a lack of a statistically significant warming
trend doesn't mean that it isn't warming, just that it isn't warming at a sufficiently high rate to rule out the possibility of there being no warming over that period.
«A global
ocean heat content change (OHC)
trend of 0.55 ± 0.1 Wm ^ 2 is estimated over the time period 2005 — 2010.
This map shows
trends in global
ocean heat content, from the surface to 2,000 meters deep.
They are simply a first estimate.Where multiple analyses of the biases in other climatological variables have been produced, for example tropospheric temperatures and
ocean heat content, the resulting spread in the estimates of key parameters such as the long - term
trend has typically been signicantly larger than initial estimates of the uncertainty suggested.
Over short periods of time natural variability such as from ENSO for example, can create short term effects that run contrary to the longer term
trend of increasing
ocean heat content and higher tropospheric temperatures.
For these reasons, Section 5.2 mainly assessed upper -
ocean observations for long - term
trends in
heat content and salinity.
I'm inclined to think that
Ocean Heat Content,
trends in land ice and Sea levels are more appropriate indicators of global climate change than surface air temperatures, but that's another issue.
The point is that this observation is not very relevant if the outcome comes from a combination of relevant and persistently warming data from areas where the temperature is strongly correlated with increase in the
heat content of
oceans, atmosphere and continental topmost layers, and almost totally irrelevant data from areas and seasons where and when exceptionally great natural variability of surface temperatures makes these temperatures essentially irrelevant for the determination of longterm
trends.
I say the
ocean heat content in the Atlantic is dropping, you show
trend lines.
Compare the professionalism of NASA's scientists and programs with that of Spencer and Christy (who told Congress in 2013 that no warming had occurred in 15 years, contradicting his own data and laughably contradicting the
trend in atmosphere +
ocean heat content).
Mr Briggs, I would love it if you would comment on the current kerfuffle between Tamino and Bob Tisdale over their attempts to find a
trend in
ocean heat content.
I'm very convinced that the physical process of global warming is continuing, which appears as a statistically significant increase of the global surface and tropospheric temperature anomaly over a time scale of about 20 years and longer and also as
trends in other climate variables (e.g., global
ocean heat content increase, Arctic and Antarctic ice decrease, mountain glacier decrease on average and others), and I don't see any scientific evidence according to which this
trend has been broken, recently.
Actually Fielding's use of that graph is quite informative of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out of that data set), or the complete passing over of short term variability vs longer term
trends, or the other measures and indicators of climate change from
ocean heat content and sea levels to changes in ice sheets and minimum sea ice levels, or the passing over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on temperatures... etc..
Hi Bart, Could I just point out that
Ocean Heat Content, given that the
oceans represent the largest thermal mass involved in the climate system by far, is the right metric to use as a bellweather for future surface temperature
trends.
Observations suggest lower values for climate sensitivity whether we study long - term humidity, upper tropospheric temperature
trends, outgoing long wave radiation, cloud cover changes, or the changes in the
heat content of the vast
oceans.
The latter continues a fairly steady upward
trend while the surface temperatures and upper
ocean heat content undergo a hiatus in warming after about 2004.
The way I see it, if you get various data points of
ocean heat content, you then have to plot a
trend to see how that is changing with the other changes in incoming and outgoing radiation and greenhouse gases andland use etc..
Because you are fitting to look for a
trend * after * selecting the data that looks flat, the real 95 % confidence interval of the
trend in temperature (or
ocean heat content) over any of these intervals is much larger than what you are presumably calculating.
Right: global
ocean heat -
content (HC) decadal
trends (1023 Joules per decade) for the upper
ocean (surface to 300 meters) and two deeper
ocean layers (300 to 750 meters and 750 meters to the
ocean floor), with error bars defined as + / - one standard error x1.86 to be consistent with a 5 % significance level from a one - sided Student t - test.
To say nothing of the warming
trends also noticed in, for example: *
ocean heat content * wasting glaciers * Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheet mass loss * sea level rise due to all of the above * sea surface temperatures * borehole temperatures * troposphere warming (with stratosphere cooling) * Arctic sea ice reductions in volume and extent * permafrost thawing * ecosystem shifts involving plants, animals and insects
If the climate is steadily accumulating
heat, does this mean the
ocean heat content will also show a monotonic steady
trend?