Hmmm... tick - tock,
ocean heat content goes higher and higher, greenhouse gas concentrations go higher and higher, Arctic sea ice volume goes lower and lower, ocean PH goes lower and lower, Greenland and Antarctic glacial mass goes lower and lower... my, that all - powerful AMO better hurry back real soon...
The current rate of ocean heat uptake is perfectly consistent with that theory and recovery from a little ice age period as far as
ocean heat content goes.
Not exact matches
You speak of
heat going into the
oceans, but didn't the last IPCC report show model projections of
ocean heat content vs observations, and there was no extra
heat in the
oceans?
The authors note that more than 85 % of the global
heat uptake (Q) has
gone into the
oceans, including increasing the
heat content of the deeper
oceans, although their model only accounts for the upper 700 meters.
The
heat content of the
ocean going down to a depth of 6,500 feet (2,000 meters) also hit a new record high last year, the report noted.
You speak of
heat going into the
oceans, but didn't the last IPCC report show model projections of
ocean heat content vs observations, and there was no extra
heat in the
oceans?
Numerous denier arguments involving slight fluctuations in the global distribution of warmer vs cooler sea surface areas as supposed explanations of climate change neglect all the energy that
goes into
ocean heat content, melting large ice deposits and so forth.
It is not a delayed response that the
ocean heat content has
gone up significantly.
If a significant fraction of this
heat lost from the
ocean went into the atmosphere one might have expected the surface air temperature to have increased faster during this period than during the subsequent period of the 1990s when the
ocean heat content gained > 5 X 10 ^ 22 J, but this is not what was observed (see reference Figure 2.7 c in the IPCC TAR Working group I).
Given that the most of the melting that
goes on is from the underneath (i.e. under the water) and
ocean heat content is at modern highs, and the
oceans have even released a bit less energy than average over the past 15 years, it is not a coincidence that ice would de line even faster during this period.
But if you google «noaa
ocean heat and salt
content» and compare the first two graphs («0 - 700m global
ocean heat content» versus «0 - 2000m global
ocean heat content») you will see that the sea SURFACE temperature is much more reflective of what is
going on in the atmosphere than the
oceans depths.
But
going back to volcanoes, you still are seriously misinformed about how important the very active volcanic period of 1225 - 1275 was as a first big dent in the MWP as it relates to
ocean heat content.
As it is, I don't care much for the overly large focus on near - surface tropospheric temperatures, as most of our weather and climate is
going to be based on
ocean dynamics and
ocean heat content.
Temperatures not
going the right direction so you awnt us to look at
ocean heat content instead.
Flatline in total air
heat content, flatline in air temperature, and yet some energy is flowing from the air into the
ocean,
going downwards.
Given that it is all eventually
going to come back to the issue of the gradual gain we've been seeing in
ocean heat content over many decades, the most accurate thing we can say is that 2014's warmth is very consistent with the general accumulation of energy in Earth's climate system caused by increasing GH gases and is well accounted for dynamically in global climate models.
Since the IPCC's graph above up to 2003 shows that most of the energy from global warming is in the
oceans, to a first approximation,
Ocean Heat Content change since then is
going to be close enough to the Total
Heat Content change.
Go to
oceans, then
ocean heat content 700m, then find the chart on the N Atlantic.
So, for example, if we
go through a period of relative higher solar output, and less volcanic activity, relatively less cloudiness, and higher greenhouse gas levels, these would all tend to increase
ocean heat content.
Not all at once of course, but as mentioned above, when the PDO
goes positive, we can likely expect a significant change in the atmospheric
heat content as
heat energy is transferred from the deep
oceans back into the atmosphere.
If it's
going into
ocean heating (
ocean heat content), that is enough mass that it might take a while to actually reach an equilibrium value.
The
heating is also quite spatially variable as shown in the
ocean heat content data with a significant fraction
going into the Southern
Oceans.
But worse is your paper with Nic Lewis, which seems to
go out of its way to get a low ECS by purposely not using the best data available for surface temperatures,
ocean heat content, and with no consideration of aerosols at all.
If a little less leaves than came in, the
heat content of the
oceans goes up; if a little more leaves than came in, the
heat content of
oceans goes down.
We are still
going to have to wait for the «definitive»
ocean heat content numbers, however, it is important to note that all analyses give long term increases in
ocean heat content — particularly in the 1990s — whether they include the good ARGO data or exclude the XBTs or not).
Please find me good solid historical numbers of
ocean heat content down to 4,000 meters
going back say 1,000 years.
For those interested in the RPS weblog,
go to http://climatesci.org/page/2/?s=
ocean+
heat+
content&submit=Search and use «
ocean heat content» in the search window.
And b)
ocean heat content is
going up, whereas it would be
going down if the
oceans were responsible.
These balance to within observational error, yet some still want to find a different reason for the two warmings
going together that is unrelated to the fact that the forcing has increased, even though they have generally agreed that the three components exist: surface warming,
ocean heat content increase and forcing increase.
«There was a big pulse in what was a precursor to the El Nino back in May, and so it looked like it was
going to be a very strong El Nino, but that pulse of warm water in the
ocean — the
heat content, actually — just faded away, basically.
The Levitus
ocean heat content data says that huge amounts of
heat are
going into the
ocean and coming out of the
ocean on a quarterly basis.
My point is it that we have a lot of
heat going into the
ocean and it is not quantified which matters if we are trying to work
ocean heat content.
There is little Arctic amplification (relative to the global or hemispheric mean) in the summer months because the extra energy
goes into evaporation and melting, while at the same time the extra sensible
heat content of the
oceans will eventually work its way into the atmosphere and have implications for the timing of seasonal re-growth in ice.
Now you can also look at
ocean heat content, because that's where virtually all of the 0.85 W / m2 should be
going.
The true confirmation of AGW theory is
going to come via measurements of
ocean heat content.