Some important aspects were not understood back then, like the role of greenhouse gases other than CO2, of aerosol particles and
of ocean heat storage.
The most reliable source of information for changes in the global mean net air — sea heat flux comes from the constraints provided by analyses of changes
in ocean heat storage.
----- On a matter unrelated to the late Sir Arthur: @Thapa (# 5), see NASA's current issue of The Earth Observer (page 16): «These findings were enough to convince the scientists who initially reported the ocean cooling [Willis et al. (2007)-RSB- to go back and closely reexamine the recent
ocean heat storage data they had collected.
In fact, the calculation has been done very carefully by Hansen and co-workers, taking all factors into consideration, and when compared with observations of
ocean heat storage over a period long enough for the observed changes to be reliably assessed, models and observations agree extremely well (see this article and this article.).
«Global
Upper Ocean Heat Storage Response to Radiative Forcing from Changing Solar Irradiance and Increasing Greenhouse Gas / Aerosol Concentrations.»
Likewise Antarctica's Refrigerator Effect completely
altered ocean heat storage and ventilation and can parsimoniously accounts for Cenozoic global cooling.
The NCAR climate model used by Meehl et al may not simulate the duration of the IPO (each phase being only around 10 years long instead of 25 - 30 years) and the exact manner of
ocean heat storage correctly, but it has simulated the majority of deep ocean storage taking place in the Southern and Atlantic Oceans.
Guest Post by Bob Tisdale The
post Ocean heat storage: a particularly lousy policy target + Update at RealClimate finally presented a few realities of the global - warming metric known as ocean heat content — realities we have discussed numerous times.
If a noted climate scientist explains multi-year changes
in ocean heat storage in terms of «tropical variablity» or «weather», I would suspect that any particularly intense tropical cyclone (or season, or multiple seasons) would surely also fall into this category of «tropical variability».
Research that ignores contributions to GMST
from ocean heat storage, ventilation and vertical mixing, they must greatly exaggerate climate sensitivity to CO2.
This also relates to mixing in the ocean, the mixed layer depth and
ocean heat storage and exchanges.
For example, measurement of
the ocean heat storage doesn't support any slowdown.
Future topics that will be discussed include: climate sensitivity, sea level rise, urban heat island - effects, the value of comprehensive climate models,
ocean heat storage, and the warming trend over the past few decades.
These uncertain quantities consists of many things including response to aerosols, water vapor / clouds and the time constant of
ocean heat storage that have no solution at present.
And what about
the ocean heat storage?
And that average depth of the oceans is an order of 3 magnitudes greater, about 3600 meters; changes in
ocean heat storage and ventilation have humongous impacts on global climate.
Understanding the relation between sea level (SL) and bottom pressure (BP) is important for a number of topics relating to ocean circulation and climate, and in particular for diagnosing steric height changes and
ocean heat storage.