Surface temperatures have paused, upper
ocean layer temperatures have not: true but I and Andy are talking about surface temperatures.
But if you try to match maximum solar insolation with maximum ocean temperature you only have to slide the prediction forward a few months which empirically appears to be the extent of the lag between forcing and mixed
ocean layer temperature.
Not exact matches
The rising
temperatures cause
layers of
ocean water to stratify so the more oxygen - rich surface waters are less able to mix with oxygen - poor waters from the deeper
ocean.
The die - off is due to a combination of rising sea surface
temperatures and decreased
ocean circulation between the higher and lower
layers, Boyce says.
Comparing
layers in the ice - core samples and
ocean sediments has allowed researchers to deduce e.g. how the average
temperature on Earth has changed over time, and also how great the variability was.
Ranging from the magnesium levels in microscopic seashells pulled from
ocean sediment cores to pollen counts in
layers of muck from lakebeds, the proxies delivered thousands of
temperature readings over the period.
Temperature sensors in the
oceans suggested that the surface
layers joined the hiatus after 2003.
Jessup wrote a computer program that uses images from standard infrared cameras to analyze
temperature changes in the top
layer of the
oceans» waters caused by breaking waves.
As
temperatures rise today, most of the heat is being taken up by the surface
layers of the
oceans.
The wind keeps a
layer of warm water near the surface in Indonesia, reducing the
temperature difference across the Indian
Ocean and so minimising the strength of positive IOD events.
The movement of water in the
ocean is determined by many factors including tides; winds; surface waves; internal waves, those that propagate within the
layers of the
ocean; and differences in
temperature, salinity or sea level height.
Regional trends are notoriously problematic for models, and seems more likely to me that the underprediction of European warming has to do with either the modeled
ocean temperature pattern, the modelled atmospheric response to this pattern, or some problem related to the local hydrological cycle and boundary
layer moisture dynamics.
From 1966 to 2003 the modeled mean world
ocean temperature in the upper 700 m increased 0.097 Â °C and by 0.137 Â °C according to observations (Levitus et al., 2005); the modeled mean temperature adjusted for sea ice in the corresponding layer of the Arctic Ocean increased 0.203
ocean temperature in the upper 700 m increased 0.097 Â °C and by 0.137 Â °C according to observations (Levitus et al., 2005); the modeled mean
temperature adjusted for sea ice in the corresponding
layer of the Arctic
Ocean increased 0.203
Ocean increased 0.203 Â °C.
This means that an increase in
temperature and the associated reorganization in
ocean circulation, for instance, had less of an effect on the marine ecosystem's ability to absorb CO2 from the atmosphere and store it in the subsurface
layers of the
ocean.
Each
layer of water can have drastically different
temperatures, so determining the average over the entirety of the
ocean's surface and depths presents a challenge.
To remove this difference in magnitude and focus instead on the patterns of change, the authors scaled the vertical profiles of
ocean temperature (area - weighted with respect to each vertical
ocean layer) with the global surface air
temperature trend of each period.
The research published in Nature Communications found that in the past, when
ocean temperatures around Antarctica became more
layered - with a warm
layer of water below a cold surface
layer - ice sheets and glaciers melted much faster than when the cool and warm
layers mixed more easily.
Increased
ocean temperatures also make the waters more stratified — preventing nutrient - rich water from below from rising to the surface and oxygen - rich water from reaching the middle
layers.
Based on the linear trend, for the 0 to 3,000 m
layer for the period 1961 to 2003 there has been an increase of
ocean heat content of approximately 14.2 ± 2.4 × 1022 J, corresponding to a global
ocean volume mean
temperature increase of 0.037 °C during this period.
Do you mean by, «simple mixed
layer ocean» that the variations of
ocean temperature with depth are not part of the analysis?
So the mechanism should cause a decline in skin
temperature gradients with increased cloud cover (more downward heat radiation), and there should also be a decline in the difference between cool skin
layer and
ocean bulk
temperatures - as less heat escapes the
ocean under increased atmospheric warming.
Increased warming of the cool skin
layer (via increased greenhouse gases) lowers its
temperature gradient (that is the
temperature difference between the top and bottom of the
layer), and this reduces the rate at which heat flows out of the
ocean to the atmosphere.
Kevin, even with greater evaporation, when one considers all the energy fluxes into and out of the
ocean cool skin
layer, as long as the change in net energy flux causes the cool skin to warm, the
temperature gradient between the cool skin
layer and the bulk
ocean below it will decrease.
The rate of flow of heat out of the
ocean is determined by the
temperature gradient in the «cool skin
layer», which resides within the thin viscous surface
layer of
ocean that is in contact with the atmosphere.
Because of their effect on lowering the
temperature gradient of the cool skin
layer, increased levels of greenhouse gases lead to more heat being stored in the
oceans over the long - term.
Figure 3 - Schematic showing the upper
ocean temperature profiles during the (A) nighttime or well mixed daytime and (B) daytime during conditions conducive to the formation of a diurnal warm
layer.
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool
ocean surface
temperatures through exchange of heat between the surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed
layer, and by changing the distribution and extent of cloud cover (which influences the radiative balance in the lower atmosphere).
The rate of flow of heat out of the
ocean is determined by the
temperature gradient in the «cool skin
layer»
The difference between
ocean and air
temperature also tends to create heavy morning fog during the summer months, known as the marine
layer, driven by an onshore wind created by the local high pressure sunny portions of the Salinas Valley, which extend north and south from Salinas and the Bay.
The physics part is that to first order, you expect the rate of continental ice melt to increase with
temperature, and also the rate at which heat penetrates into the
ocean below the mixed
layer (for the mixed
layer indeed we use a term relating
temperature to sea level, not its rate of rise).
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool
ocean surface
temperatures through exchange of heat between the surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed
layer, and by changing the distribution and extent of cloud cover (which influences the radiative balance in the lower atmosphere).
I would claim that the surface
temperature — which is a comparatively easy thing to measure — is a relevant test of climate physics because a lot of the
ocean response is indeed determined by the relatively shallow mixed
layer.
Here, we elucidate this question by using 26 years of satellite data to drive a simple physical model for estimating the
temperature response of the
ocean mixed
layer to changes in aerosol loadings.
This is because (a) the rate of heat penetration into the deeper
ocean increases in proportion to
temperature (like for ice melt), and (b) the second term we added models the mixed
layer response successfully.
Our results suggest that 69 % of the recent upward trend, and 67 % of the detrended and 5 - year low pass filtered variance, in northern tropical Atlantic
Ocean temperatures is the mixed
layer's response to regional variability in aerosols.
The standard assumption has been that, while heat is transferred rapidly into a relatively thin, well - mixed surface
layer of the
ocean (averaging about 70 m in depth), the transfer into the deeper waters is so slow that the atmospheric
temperature reaches effective equilibrium with the mixed
layer in a decade or so.
Soundbite version: «Global warming is expected to increase sea surface
temperatures, create a thicker and warmer
ocean surface
layer, and increase the moisture in the atmosphere over the
oceans — all conditions that should lead to a general increase in hurricane intensity and maybe frequency.»
Ocean measurements track the
temperatures in the near surface
layer (to about 5m depth).
A lot of reseach energy is being devoted to the study of Methane Clathrates — a huge source of greenhouse gases which could be released from the
ocean if the thermocline (the buoyant stable
layer of warm water which overlies the near - freezing deep
ocean) dropped in depth considerably (due to GHG warming), or especially if the deep
ocean waters were warmed by very, very extreme changes from the current climate, such that deep water
temperatures no longer hovered within 4C of freezing, but warmed to something like 18C.
First, global mean surface
temperature depends on the quantity of heat stored at the surface of the earth (earth, lower atmosphere, and the mixed
layer of the
oceans).
This is very encouraging for the future application of measurements from sea - going spectral radiometers, as instruments not only for the validation of satellite - derived SST but also for studying the physics of the
ocean skin
temperature layer.
In the
ocean there are dual buoyancy mechanisms — salinity and
temperature — which drive boundary
layer instability.
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean in general, but significant at the interface betwen the surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the Earth's interior) temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and
ocean in general, but significant at the interface betwen the surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary
layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the Earth's interior)
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differential heating.
If somehow and I can't possibly imagine how, there was a huge increase in circulation between the surface and the deeper
layers of the
ocean, that would be disastrous for global
temperatures but not upwards but downwards!
The advantage of the
ocean heat content changes for detecting climate changes is that there is less noise than in the surface
temperature record due to the weather that affects the atmospheric measurements, but that has much less impact below the
ocean mixed
layer.
From 1966 to 2003 the modeled mean world
ocean temperature in the upper 700 m increased 0.097 Â °C and by 0.137 Â °C according to observations (Levitus et al., 2005); the modeled mean temperature adjusted for sea ice in the corresponding layer of the Arctic Ocean increased 0.203
ocean temperature in the upper 700 m increased 0.097 Â °C and by 0.137 Â °C according to observations (Levitus et al., 2005); the modeled mean
temperature adjusted for sea ice in the corresponding
layer of the Arctic
Ocean increased 0.203
Ocean increased 0.203 Â °C.
We must be at cross purposes here Gavin because a much more well mixed
ocean would be disastrous for surface
layer temperatures and the impact on the Troposphere.
Thus, if the absorption of the infrared emission from atmospheric greenhouse gases reduces the gradient through the skin
layer, the flow of heat from the
ocean beneath will be reduced, leaving more of the heat introduced into the bulk of the upper oceanic
layer by the absorption of sunlight to remain there to increase water
temperature.
Is the expansion of a better - mixed
ocean equal to that of a normally,
temperature wise,
layered ocean?
Diffusion / entrainment of the anomalous mixed
layer temperature then allows the perturbation to diffuse into the deep
ocean.