«(3)
ocean model simulations (e.g., Le Quéré et al., 2003; McKinley et al., 2004a) and (4) terrestrial carbon cycle and coupled model simulations (e.g., C. Jones et al., 2001; McGuire et al., 2001; Peylin et al., 2005; Zeng et al., 2005).»
Time series of AMOC anomaly at 1000 m depth at 45 ° N (top panels) and 26.5 ° N (bottom panels) for the set of ocean reanalysis products (left panels) and the set of No Assimilation forced
ocean model simulations (right panels).
Ice -
ocean model simulations, on the other hand, have requirements with respect to data density and quality, e.g., for observed ice thickness fields used in initialization of model runs, that are currently not being met by existing data sources (with the exception of, e.g., satellite - observed ice concentration fields).
This is according to emergency
ocean model simulations run by scientists at the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) and The University of Southampton to assess the potential impact of local ocean circulation on the spread of pollutants.
Not exact matches
Research reported earlier this year hinted that events in the stratosphere might directly affect the
oceans, but those findings were based on a single climate
model and a computer
simulation that
modeled the stratosphere for a relatively short 260 years.
These
simulations were run using the leading - edge, high - resolution global
ocean circulation
model, NEMO.
Yet, this
model of the quake does not match up well with the information from the
ocean floor sensors — incorporating that data into future computer
simulations should give a better picture of what actually happened during the massive tectonic event.
Using results from
simulations conducted using an ensemble of sophisticated
models, Ricke, Caldeira, and their co-authors calculated
ocean chemical conditions that would occur under different future scenarios and determined whether these chemical conditions could sustain coral reef growth.
Simmons, with the help of the Arctic Region Supercomputer Center, which is part of the UAF Geophysical Institute, used math equations to make detailed numerical
simulations, or high - resolution
models, of under -
ocean wave processes.
Conor Purcell from Cardiff University's School of Earth and
Ocean Sciences, said: «Using the
simulations performed with our climate
model, we were able to demonstrate that the climate system can respond to small changes with abrupt climate swings.
The researchers» forecasts are based on the AWI's BRIOS (Bremerhaven Regional Ice -
Ocean Simulations) model, a coupled ice - ocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in Ex
Ocean Simulations)
model, a coupled ice -
ocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in Ex
ocean model that the team forced with atmospheric data from the SRES - A1B climate scenario, created at Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter.
The
model also generated acoustic data; an interesting revelation of the
simulation was that tsunamigenic surface - breaking ruptures, like the 2011 earthquake, produce higher amplitude
ocean acoustic waves than those that do not.
«The data of the
model simulation was so close to the deep
ocean sediment data, that we knew immediately, we were on the right track,» said co-author Dr Laurie Menviel from the University of New South Wales, Australia, who conducted the
model simulation.
To better understand the physical mechanisms of rapid
ocean adjustment, the data was compared with a climate
model simulation which covers the same period.
Its number - crunching capabilities are used to study ship hydrodynamics and air turbulence, to probe industrial combustion turbines to create cleaner engines, and to understand global
ocean circulation, as well as for earthquake
simulations and aircraft noise - reduction
modeling.
Out of several factors we considered in our
model simulation, only one (sulphuric acid) could have made the surface
ocean severely corrosive to calcite, but even then the amounts of sulphur required are unfeasibly large.
Our general circulation
model simulations, which take into account the recently observed widespread occurrence of vertically extended atmospheric brown clouds over the Indian
Ocean and Asia3, suggest that atmospheric brown clouds contribute as much as the recent increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases to regional lower atmospheric warming trends.
Stephanie M. Downes, Riccardo Farneti, Petteri Uotila, Stephen M. Griffies, Simon J. Marsland, et al. (2015) An assessment of Southern
Ocean water masses and sea ice during 1988 - 2007 in a suite of interannual CORE - II
simulations, 94, 67 - 94,
Ocean Modelling, doi: 10.1016 / j.ocemod.2015.07.022,
It should also be noted that the authors examined whether the large - scale
ocean circulation, the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), and two other
ocean phenomena - the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Meridional Oscillation (AMO)- could explain the warming in the 20th century
simulations, but found no evidence in the
models.
This analysis by Sedláček & Knutti (2012) does not attempt to connect
modelled and observed
ocean warming patterns with human activity, but does demonstrate that natural variability is incompatible with the warming in the 20th century
simulations, and with historical observations.
(Bottom left) Multi-
model average SST change for LGM PMIP - 2
simulations by five AOGCMs (Community Climate System
Model (CCSM), Flexible Global
Ocean - Atmosphere - Land System (FGOALS), Hadley Centre Coupled
Model (HadCM), Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Climate System
Model (IPSL - CM),
Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC)-RRB-.
Accurately interpreting climate
simulations and quantifying uncertainty is a key to understanding and accurately
modeling atmospheric, land,
ocean, and socio - economic phenomena and processes.
(Top left) Global annual mean radiative influences (W m — 2) of LGM climate change agents, generally feedbacks in glacial - interglacial cycles, but also specified in most Atmosphere -
Ocean General Circulation
Model (AOGCM)
simulations for the LGM.
Simulations with general circulation
ocean models do not fully support the gas exchange - sea ice hypothesis.
In an ensemble of fully coupled atmosphere -
ocean general circulation
model (AOGCM)
simulations of the late Paleocene and early Eocene, we identify such a circulation - driven enhanced intermediate - water warming.
The
model is called INCA Microplastics, and
simulations have showed a strong influence of meteorological conditions and river characteristics and flows in controlling the export of microplastics from agricultural soils and their transport to the
ocean.
Gordon, C., et al., 2000: The
simulation of SST, sea ice extents and
ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled
model without flux adjustments.
Russell, J.L., R.J. Stouffer, and K.W. Dixon, 2006: Intercomparison of the Southern
Ocean circulations in IPCC coupled
model control
simulations.
The work supports the Laboratory's Global Security mission area and the Information, Science, and Technology science pillar through enhanced
ocean model components of global climate
simulations.
Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at
Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by
model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by
models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.
A large ensemble of Earth system
model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self ‐ adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface
ocean acidification.
The relative contribution of each trace GHG to increased Eocene and Cretaceous land temperatures at 4 × CO2, assessed with multiple separate coupled -
ocean atmosphere HadCM3L
model simulations, revealed methane and associated increases in stratospheric water vapor dominate, with nitrous oxide and tropospheric ozone contributing approximately equally to the remainder.
Because this issue continues to affect all coupled
ocean - atmosphere
models (e.g., 22 — 24), the warming (Fig. 3) represents the expression of positive biotic feedback mechanisms missing from earlier
simulations of these climates obtained with prescribed PI concentrations of trace GHGs.
From these relationships and reconstructed temperature time series, we diagnose glacial − interglacial time series of dust radiative forcing and iron fertilization of
ocean biota, and use these time series to force Earth system
model simulations.
Based on transient climate
model simulations of glacial - interglacial transitions (rather than «snapshots» of different
modeled climate states), Ganopolski and Roche (2009) proposed that in addition to CO2, changes in
ocean heat transport provide a critical link between northern and southern hemispheres, able to explain the apparent lag of CO2 behind Antarctic temperature.
Zhang, X. D., and J. E. Walsh (2006), Toward a seasonally ice - covered Arctic
Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4
model simulations, J Climate, 19 (9), 1730 - 1747.
Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at
Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by
model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by
models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.
Decadal hindcast
simulations of Arctic
Ocean sea ice thickness made by a modern dynamic - thermodynamic sea ice
model and forced independently by both the ERA - 40 and NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data sets are compared for the first time.
The key points of the paper are that: i)
model simulations with 20th century forcings are able to match the surface air temperature record, ii) they also match the measured changes of
ocean heat content over the last decade, iii) the implied planetary imbalance (the amount of excess energy the Earth is currently absorbing) which is roughly equal to the
ocean heat uptake, is significant and growing, and iv) this implies both that there is significant heating «in the pipeline», and that there is an important lag in the climate's full response to changes in the forcing.
Are the observations of initial and boundary forcings of
ocean models adequate to provide good
simulations?
We employed two different climate
model simulations: (1) the simulation of the NCAR CSM 1.4 coupled atmosphere - ocean General Circulation Model (GCM) analyzed by Ammann et al (2007) and (2) simulations of a simple Energy Balance Model (
model simulations: (1) the
simulation of the NCAR CSM 1.4 coupled atmosphere -
ocean General Circulation
Model (GCM) analyzed by Ammann et al (2007) and (2) simulations of a simple Energy Balance Model (
Model (GCM) analyzed by Ammann et al (2007) and (2)
simulations of a simple Energy Balance
Model (
Model (EBM).
In our internal development process, this was fixed and, combined with a few more tweaks in the
ocean model, gives a better
simulation of
ocean climatology.
A detailed reanalysis is presented of a «Bayesian» climate parameter study (Forest et al., 2006) that estimates climate sensitivity (ECS) jointly with effective
ocean diffusivity and aerosol forcing, using optimal fingerprints to compare multi-decadal observations with
simulations by the MIT 2D climate
model at varying settings of the three climate parameters.
``... this is a preliminary attempt to shift climate
models toward becoming a forecasting tool, mainly by tweaking them with real - world data (in this case
ocean temperatures) as they churn through their
simulations.»
Model simulations for the North Atlantic
Ocean and thermodynamic principles reveal that this feedback should be stronger, at present, in colder midlatitude and subpolar waters because of the lower present - day buffer capacity and elevated DIC levels driven either by northward advected surface water and / or excess local air - sea CO2 uptake.
Kosaka and Xie made global climate
simulations in which they inserted specified observed Pacific
Ocean temperatures; they found that the
model simulated well the observed global warming slowdown or «hiatus,» although this experiment does not identify the cause of Pacific
Ocean temperature trends.
The researchers, writing in the journal Nature, stress that this is a preliminary attempt to shift climate
models toward becoming a forecasting tool, mainly by tweaking them with real - world data (in this case
ocean temperatures) as they churn through their
simulations.
This
model simulation took six months on 11,000 processors (9,000 of them for the
ocean alone) of the high - performance computer at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton.
Forest et al. 2006 compares observations of multiple surface, upper air and deep -
ocean temperature changes with
simulations thereof by the MIT 2D climate
model run at many climate parameter settings.
As noted in that post, RealClimate defines the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation («AMO») as, «A multidecadal (50 - 80 year timescale) pattern of North Atlantic
ocean - atmosphere variability whose existence has been argued for based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data, and coupled Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model («AOGCM») simulat
ocean - atmosphere variability whose existence has been argued for based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data, and coupled Atmosphere -
Ocean General Circulation Model («AOGCM») simulat
Ocean General Circulation
Model («AOGCM»)
simulations.