The conventional view on the connection between the AMOC and Arctic sea ice is that a weakening of the AMOC should reduce
ocean poleward heat transport and, hence, expand sea ice.
Not exact matches
And no, there is no huge plunge in tropical or global surface air temperatures when the
ocean circulation spins up because there is a near - compensating decrease in
poleward heat transport via the atmospheric circulation.
As the
ocean circulation takes up the role of
transporting heat poleward the atmospheric circulation spins down.
Suppose that there has been a multi-century increase in the
poleward heat transport in the
oceans due to internal variability, which warms the poles, reduces ice extent and albedos, and thereby warms the planet.
Scientists are still trying to decide how the
poleward heat transport will be affected by global warming — but the rapid changes at the poles seem to involve a lot of
heat transport into that region via both the atmosphere and the
oceans.
Although more research is needed, there is some agreement among oceanographers that, for the entire area north of 30 N latitude, the
ocean's
poleward transport of
heat is the equivalent of about 15 watts per square metre of the earth's surface (W / m2).
Reduction in ice free area, a positive feedback to the atmosphere increases
poleward ocean heat transport, a negative feedback for the
oceans.
If you have faith in the climate models and have any knowledge of what they do with reduced
poleward ocean heat transport, then you are expecting cooling unless the AMOC should speed back up.
The YD shows strongly up in GRIP but is much less pronounced in the Antarctic cores because interrupting the AMOC turns
poleward ocean heat transport on and off causing abrupt NH climate change.
Conversely, during low solar activity during the Little Ice Age,
transport of warm water was reduced by 10 % and Arctic sea ice increased.17 Although it is not a situation I would ever hope for, if history repeats itself, then natural climate dynamics of the past suggest, the current drop in the sun's output will produce a similar cooler climate, and it will likely be detected first as a slow down in the
poleward transport of
ocean heat.22 Should we prepare for this possibility?
In our model simulations this weakens the AMOC and
poleward ocean heat transport, and diminishes the contribution of
ocean heat transport to the reduction of Arctic sea ice extent.
Has mostly to do with
poleward ocean heat transport.
Models also show that a change in
poleward ocean heat transport can create large changes in the climate.
They forced the model with CO2 and happened to catch it when it was in the process of increasing
poleward ocean heat transport.
Warm currents
transport heat from lower latitudes
poleward and tend to occur on the western sides of
oceans.
I missed the part where you mentioned the balance in the AMO and an equal balance in any long term
poleward ocean heat transport.
These oscillations are superimposed on a long term trend of increasing
poleward ocean heat transport.
All of the warming since the LIA can easily be explained by increases in
poleward ocean heat transport.
To ascertain with confidence the extent to which deep water production impacts the
ocean's meridional circulation and hence the
ocean's contributions to the global
poleward heat flux, continuous measures of trans - basin mass and
heat transports are needed.
We find that an increase in
poleward heat transport by the tropical
ocean results in a warming of the extra-tropics, relatively little change in the tropical temperatures, moistening of the subtropical dry zones, and partial but incomplete compensation of the planetary - scale energy
transport by the atmosphere.
The zonal integral (east to west) of wind stress curl across an
ocean basin is proportional to the western boundary current
transport (i.e., the
transport responsible for the dominant part of the
poleward heat flux by the
ocean).
Observational and modelling evidence suggest that
poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) can vary in response to both natural climate variability and greenhouse warming.