If this analysis is correct then all of the land -
ocean records used in the IPCC AR5 report have been overstating the slowdown in warming over the past 16 years, although for different reasons.
«Using a GCM, can we regenerate the land temperature record from
the ocean record using observed SSTs and sea ice distribution as a boundary condition?
Not exact matches
The scientists, led by Eric Oliver of Dalhousie University in Canada, investigated long - term heat wave trends
using a combination of satellite data collected since the 1980s and direct
ocean temperature measurements collected throughout the 21st century to construct a nearly 100 - year
record of marine heat wave frequency and duration around the world.
The new sea - level
record was then
used in combination with existing deep - sea oxygen isotope
records from the open
ocean, to work out deep - sea temperature changes.
Using records going back more than a century to the British Challenger expedition, researchers calculate that the deep
ocean is experiencing its own temperature rise.
Now,
using two deep cores collected at two
Ocean Drilling Program sites in the Southern Ocean, Jaccard and colleagues have reconstructed ocean records of productivity and vertical overturning reaching back a million years, through multiple glacial - interglacial cy
Ocean Drilling Program sites in the Southern
Ocean, Jaccard and colleagues have reconstructed ocean records of productivity and vertical overturning reaching back a million years, through multiple glacial - interglacial cy
Ocean, Jaccard and colleagues have reconstructed
ocean records of productivity and vertical overturning reaching back a million years, through multiple glacial - interglacial cy
ocean records of productivity and vertical overturning reaching back a million years, through multiple glacial - interglacial cycles.
«We
used the fossil
record to show, in a concrete, convincing way, that what is happening in the modern
oceans is really different from what has happened in the past,» said study co-author Noel Heim, a postdoctoral researcher in Payne's lab.
A new study, the most comprehensive ever on seasonal distribution patterns and historic trends in abundance of white sharks (Carcharodon carcharias) in the western North Atlantic
Ocean,
used records compiled over more than 200 years to update knowledge and fill in gaps in information about this species.
Pierre Cauchy, a PhD researcher from UEA's School of Environmental Sciences, has been
using one of these autonomous submarines for five years,
recording underwater noises in the Mediterranean Sea and the North Atlantic and Southern
oceans.
Using records stretching back to 1791, the study finds that a switch in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or PDO has always been accompanied by changes in temperature in the north and south Pacific
Ocean.
Using genetic techniques for the first time to estimate past populations, Stephen Palumbi of Stanford University and Joe Roman of Harvard University concluded that the
oceans were once filled with 10 times more great whales than historical
records indicate.
By studying the variations of uranium isotopes
recorded in carbonates, the team was able to infer global anoxia occurring throughout the
ocean using samples from a single outcrop.
A working group known as PALSEA2 (Paleo constraints on sea level rise)
used past
records of local change in sea level and converted them to a global mean sea level by predicting how the surface of the Earth deforms due to changes in ice -
ocean loading of the crust, along with changes in gravitational attraction on the
ocean surface.
Not all of the
records agree, however, and the researchers argue that certain tools
used for reconstructing past
ocean temperatures should be re-evaluated.
Because plants preferentially
use the lighter isotope, its scarcity is a
record of how much life the
oceans supported.
In addition, since the global surface temperature
records are a measure that responds to albedo changes (volcanic aerosols, cloud cover, land
use, snow and ice cover) solar output, and differences in partition of various forcings into the
oceans / atmosphere / land / cryosphere, teasing out just the effect of CO2 + water vapor over the short term is difficult to impossible.
Just based on the GISS combined land /
ocean monthlies through April (I assume what's
used for the
record, but perhaps it's land only?)
However, the purported conclusion essentially argues that this fragmentary and «subjectively coupled»
record can be
used to justify accusing PMSL of scientific fraud, and claiming * zero * SLR for the entire Indian
Ocean!
For BNO (S) alone in its last quarter cycle 2000 - 14 (for which we have the best data OHC) the ΔOHC 0 - 2000m
record is 4x larger and of opposite sign (contradicting the assumption of BNO = AGW by suggesting AGW is 5x bigger in magnitude than BNO (S) for this period if BNO (S) did exist
using 0 - 2000m
ocean storage).
This result is a combination of land data,
using stations where the only measurements
recorded are those of the maximum and minimum daily temperature, and
ocean data which are probably much more representative of the true daily mean.
This is at least ten additional years compared to the majority of previously published studies that have
used the instrumental
record in attempts to constrain the ECS.We show that the additional 10 years of data, and especially 10 years of additional
ocean heat content data, have significantly narrowed the probability density function of the ECS.
In summary, the historical [Sea Surface Temperature]
record... may well contain instrumental bias effects that render the data of questionable value in determining long period trends in
ocean surface temperatures... Investigators that
use the data [to try this] bear a heavy, perhaps impossible, responsibility for ensuring that the potential instrument bias has not contaminated their results.
1) the accurate aerosol forcing
used is accurate 2) accurate
ocean heat uptake
records in recent years 3) the equation
used does accurately calculate ECS
Although
ocean temperatures are more difficult to measure than land temperatures, scientists can
use several methods to create an extensive
ocean record.
Ocean warming: «Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&r
Ocean warming: «Assessing recent warming
using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature
records» «Tracking
ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&r
ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global
ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&r
ocean temperature observations: Implications for
ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&r
ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its
ocean structure since 2006&r
ocean structure since 2006»
They avoid some of the issues in Millar by
using more globally - representative surface temperature
records, though they still
use series that blend surface air temperatures over land with slower - warming sea surface temperatures over the
ocean.
For Climate, it could be (maybe should be) that the temperature
record itself is the test set for fitting and the troposphere signature,
ocean heat, or some other signature is
used as the «validation» set.
Impact of the weather stations adjustments on the global land -
ocean temperature
record, calculated
using the Skeptical Science temperature
record calculator in «CRU» mode.
In fact, the world's interconnected
ocean as a whole is sliding into the Holocene Mass Extinction, the geological event that some scientists
use to divide the boundary of the Holocene and the Anthropocene epoch, the one that's named after us — and that may still be visible in the Earth's geological
record hundreds of millions of years from now, because species of fish, shellfish, crustaceans and other marine life, that were abundant on this planet for millions of years — suddenly, in less than the blink of a geologist's eye, vanished — for good.
Our proxy
records are compared with climate model simulations
using a coupled atmosphere -
ocean general circulation model.
e.g. «While NOAA
uses the ERSST
ocean temperature series, other groups like the Hadley Centre in the UK have their own
record, HadSST version 3.
Using CMIP5 simulations prescribed with historical greenhouse gas concentrations and future projections (representative concentration pathway 8.5), together with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecast) operational
ocean reanalysis of the observed climate and tide - gauge
records to verify the model results, the authors found that projected climate change will enhance El Niño - related sea level extremes.
«Assessing recent warming
using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature
records» «Tracking
ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global
ocean temperature observations: Implications for
ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its
ocean structure since 2006»
«The 20th century temperature anomaly
record is reproduced
using an energy balance model, with a diffusive deep
ocean.
The near - linear rate of anthropogenic warming (predominantly from anthropogenic greenhouse gases) is shown in sources such as: «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends
Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «The global warming hiatus — a natural product of interactions of a secular warming trend and a multi-decadal oscillation» «The Origin and Limits of the Near Proportionality between Climate Warming and Cumulative CO2 Emissions» «Sensitivity of climate to cumulative carbon emissions due to compensation of
ocean heat and carbon uptake» «Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause» «
Using data to attribute episodes of warming and cooling in instrumental
records» «The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions» «The sensitivity of the proportionality between temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions to
ocean mixing»
But the Arctic sea ice has hit near -
record minimums of sea ice since 2002, meaning the
ocean is absorbing more sunlight, and heat, than it
used to, leading to more ice melt.
We place strong emphasis on
using isotopes as a means to understand physical mixing and chemical cycling in the
ocean, and the climate history as
recorded in marine sediments.»
UC Berkeley scientists calculated average
ocean temperatures from 1999 to 2015, separately
using ocean buoys and satellite data, and confirmed the uninterrupted warming trend reported by NOAA in 2015, based on that organization's recalibration of sea surface temperature
recordings from ships and buoys.
HS12
uses the oxygen isotope
record in
ocean sediments Zachos et al. (2008) to estimate past changes of sea level and
ocean temperature, and thus obtain a largely empirical estimate of climate sensitivity.
Sea levels are rising (ask the Mayor of Miami who has spent tax monies to raise road levels), we've had 15 of the hottest years eve measured, more precipitation is coming down in heavy doses (think Houston), we're seeing more floods and drought than ever before (consistent with predictions), the
oceans are measuring warmer, lake ice in North America is thawing sooner (where it happens in northern states and Canada), most glaciers are shrinking, early spring snowpacks out west have declined since the 1950's, growing seasons are longer throughout the plains, bird wintering ranges have moved north, leaf and bloom dates
recorded by Thoreau in Walden have shifted in that area, insect populations that
used to have one egg - larva - adult cycle in the summer now have two, the list goes on and on.
The close match is partly a result of the fact that sea - level and temperature data are derived from the same deep
ocean record, but
use of other sea - level reconstructions still yields a good fit between the calculated and observed temperature [5].
Both because we felt that NOAA got a lot of unfair criticism, and also because their new results did produce some real scientific uncertainties; not only is their new temperature
record warmer than their old one, it's also a bit warmer than the UK's Hadley Center
record, which is probably the most commonly
used ocean temperature
record,» Hausfather says.
We
use the rich climate history of the Cenozoic era in the oxygen isotope
record of
ocean sediments to explore the relation of climate change with sea level and atmospheric CO2, inferring climate sensitivity empirically.
This allows us to scale the two
records by their respective interglacial levels, combine them to better resolve the Southern
Ocean, and
use the combined
record as our proxy for glacial / interglacial iron fertilization forcing.
We
use isotope data from Zachos et al. [4], which are improved over data
used in our earlier study [5], and we improve our prescription for separating the effects of deep
ocean temperature and ice volume in the oxygen isotope
record as well as our prescription for relating deep
ocean temperature to surface air temperature.
You
use the land +
ocean global temperature
record, which ignores the fact that the
oceans have not equilibrated to the current forcings including CFC.
Different approaches have been
used to compute the mean rate of 20th century global mean sea level (GMSL) rise from the available tide gauge data: computing average rates from only very long, nearly continuous
records;
using more numerous but shorter
records and filters to separate nonlinear trends from decadal - scale quasi-periodic variability; neural network methods; computing regional sea level for specific basins then averaging; or projecting tide gauge
records onto empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) computed from modern altimetry or EOFs from
ocean models.
«Not
using their data we get the exact same results, both for the
ocean record and for the land,» said Zeke Hausfather, lead author of the Berkeley study.
She then
used that information to create a continuous
record of the region's
ocean temperature from 1940 to 2010.
If you have good measurements of upper
ocean and atmospheric temperatures, then if you had a good decade - long satellite
record of the Earth's total radiative energy balance from space — say, if Triana has been launched to in the late 1990s — then you could
use conservation of energy to calculate the rate of heat uptake by the deep
ocean over the past ten years.