By the end of this century, global
ocean surface pH could decrease by a further 0.3 — 0.5 units [1,2].
Then for our last 20 million years,
ocean surface pH has fluctuated within this new equilibrium between 8.4 and 8.1, as seen in Figure 1 below (Pearson and Palmer 2000).
Coastal and equatorial upwelling bring an enormous amount of DIC to the surface, with subsequent transport to the gyres of the open ocean, causing declines in open
ocean surface pH at rates that are much faster than possibly attributed to atmospheric diffusion.
Sixty million years ago proxy evidence indicates
ocean surface pH hovered around 7.4.
This further complicates any attribution of trends in surface pH. For example upwelling of stored CO2 is believed to have been the main driver of the rise in atmospheric CO2 and the fall in
ocean surface pH during the transition from the glacial maximum to our interglacial.
Although it is commonly assumed atmospheric CO2 and
ocean surface pH are in equilibrium, studies examining various time frames from daily and seasonal pH fluctuations (Kline 2015) to the millennial scale transitions from the last ice age to our warm interglacial (Martinez - Boti 2015), demonstrate surface ocean pH has rarely been in chemical equilibrium with atmospheric CO2.
Although some researchers have raised concerns about possible negative effects of rising CO2 on
ocean surface pH, there are several lines of evidence demonstrating marine ecosystems are far more sensitive to fluxes of carbon dioxide from ocean depths and the biosphere's response than from invasions of atmospheric CO2.
In 2095, the projected average
ocean surface pH is 7.8, and lower still in the Arctic Ocean.
Fig 2: Annual variations in atmospheric CO2, oceanic CO2, and
ocean surface pH. Strong trend lines for rising CO2 and falling pH.
Average
ocean surface pH is expected to drop to about 7.8 off the West Coast by 2050, and could drop further during coastal upwelling periods.
Not exact matches
This is due to the
ocean pH decreases in depth (with a minimum value of < 7,7), which is related to the expected
pH in
surface ocean over the next 85 years).
As its concentration rises in the atmosphere, carbon enters the
ocean through chemical reactions, causing its
pH at the
surface to drop by 0.1 units since the preindustrial era.
On average, researchers estimate that
surface waters, where key players in the
ocean food chain live, have seen a 0.1 decrease in
pH since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution; that's an extraordinarily rapid 30 % increase in acidity.
Inspired by dynamic shifts in
pH due to upwelling — the movement of nutrient - rich water toward the
ocean surface — the researchers took urchins from the Santa Barbara Channel and brought them into the lab.
As a consequence, the average
pH at the
ocean surface has dropped from 8.2 to 8.1.
These rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to an increase in global average temperatures of ~ 0.2 °C decade — 1, much of which has been absorbed by the
oceans, whilst the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 has led to major changes in
surface ocean pH (Levitus et al., 2000, 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Mora et al., 2013; Roemmich et al., 2015).
Do they address whether this much sulfate will cause a transient spike in
surface ocean pH as it rains out?
However, because the anthropenic carbon input will occur within just 300 years, which is less than the mixing time of the
ocean (38), the impacts on
surface ocean pH and biota will probably be more severe».
The
pH of the
surface ocean has fallen by 0.1
pH units since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution.
In particular, carbonic acid is formed and hydrogen ions are released, and as a result the
pH of the
ocean surface waters decrease (making them more acidic).
A new study of a 600 - mile span of coastline found some of the lowest
pH levels ever measured on the
ocean surface... Read More
The CDR potential and possible environmental side effects are estimated for various COA deployment scenarios, assuming olivine as the alkalinity source in ice ‐ free coastal waters (about 8.6 % of the global
ocean's
surface area), with dissolution rates being a function of grain size, ambient seawater temperature, and
pH. Our results indicate that for a large ‐ enough olivine deployment of small ‐ enough grain sizes (10 µm), atmospheric CO2 could be reduced by more than 800 GtC by the year 2100.
There's no satellite in space that's capable of directly measuring
ocean acidity, but an international team of scientists writing in the journal Environmental Science & Technology described last week how satellite measurements of sea
surface temperatures, salinity and plankton activity could be combined and used to estimate
pH.
The carbon dioxide buildup is changing the chemistry of
surface seawater, lowering its
pH in a way that, in theory, could be harmful to the shell - forming and reef - forming marine organisms of today's
ocean ecosystem.
Surface ocean pH values are going down, that's a fact.
In that context, gravity waves roil and depressurize the
oceans, and that then leads to outgassing of CO2 — it comes out of solution in the
ocean and bubbles to the
surface and their given capacitive couplings impacting
pH runs back to ion form — which then impacts conductivity.
Second, do we really know the
pH of the
surface ocean in 1751 to 3 significant figures?
However, because the anthropenic carbon input will occur within just 300 years, which is less than the mixing time of the
ocean (38), the impacts on
surface ocean pH and biota will probably be more severe».
Actually, there is an
ocean station off Mauna Loa that has been logging atmospheric CO2 (which mirrors Mauna Loa itself), dissolved
ocean surface CO2 (Henry's Law), and resultant
ocean pH. At least at that location in the Pacific, the measured decline in
pH is from about 8.15 to 8.08 over now about 25 years.
From preindustrial levels, contemporary
surface ocean pH is estimated to have dropped on average from 8.2 to 8.1, or by about 0.1
pH units (a 26 % increase in hydrogen ion concentration), and further decreases of 0.22 to 0.35
pH units are projected over this century unless carbon dioxide emissions are significantly reduced (Orr et al., 2005; Bopp et al., 2013).
From preindustrial levels, contemporary
surface ocean pH is estimated to have dropped on average from 8.2 to 8.1, or by about 0.1
pH units (a 26 % increase in hydrogen ion concentration), and further decreases of 0.22 to 0.35
pH units are projected over this century unless carbon dioxide emissions are significantly reduced.
For example, atmospheric carbon dioxide grew by approximately 30 % during the transition from the most recent cold glacial period, about 20,000 years ago, to the current warm interglacial period; the corresponding rate of decrease in
surface ocean pH, driven by geological processes, was approximately 50 times slower than the current rate driven largely by fossil fuel burning.
Now, if someone will just supply the evidence that shows
pH of the
ocean surface has dropped 0.11 on the
pH scale we will have verified Mr. Doney's assertion.
As acids go, H2CO3 is relatively innocuous — we drink it all the time in Coke and other carbonated beverages — but in sufficient quantities it can change the water's
pH. Already, humans have pumped enough carbon into the
oceans — some hundred and twenty billion tons — to produce a.1 decline in
surface pH. Since
pH, like the Richter scale, is a logarithmic measure, a.1 drop represents a rise in acidity of about thirty per cent.
They considered variables such as precipitation, evaporation,
ocean surface temperature and the chemistry (the
pH) of the seas.
Indeed, if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration were to quadruple then the change to
ocean surface layer
pH would be within the existing variations (both spatial and temporal) of
ocean pH.
Change in globally - averaged
pH for the entire
ocean (left - hand chart) and
surface ocean (right - hand chart).
«Since 1990,
surface ocean pH has directly been measured or calculated at several locations, with the average recent decrease estimated as 0.0019 pH units per year at the Hawaii Ocean Time - series (HOT; close to the site of long - term atmospheric CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa)[12]; 0.0017 per year based on transects in the North Pacific [13]; 0.0012 per year at the Bermuda Atlantic Time - Series (BATS)[14] and 0.0017 per year at the European Station for Time - Series in the Ocean at the Canary Islands (ESTOC)
ocean pH has directly been measured or calculated at several locations, with the average recent decrease estimated as 0.0019
pH units per year at the Hawaii
Ocean Time - series (HOT; close to the site of long - term atmospheric CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa)[12]; 0.0017 per year based on transects in the North Pacific [13]; 0.0012 per year at the Bermuda Atlantic Time - Series (BATS)[14] and 0.0017 per year at the European Station for Time - Series in the Ocean at the Canary Islands (ESTOC)
Ocean Time - series (HOT; close to the site of long - term atmospheric CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa)[12]; 0.0017 per year based on transects in the North Pacific [13]; 0.0012 per year at the Bermuda Atlantic Time - Series (BATS)[14] and 0.0017 per year at the European Station for Time - Series in the
Ocean at the Canary Islands (ESTOC)
Ocean at the Canary Islands (ESTOC)[15].
The evidence being that CO2 levels are rising at a rate that is possibly unprecedented in Earth's history coupled with the strong impacts CO2 has on several Earth systems (the greenhouse effect and
surface ocean pH being just two).
More relevantly though man is increasing CO2 at a rate unprecedented in earth's history — as far as we know and CO2 has significant impact on radiative transfer in the atmosphere and
pH in the
surface ocean.
When CO2 first invades sunlit
surface waters, it indeed dissolves into 3 forms of inorganic carbon (DIC) and lowers
pH (DIC is discussed in How Gaia and Coral Reefs Regulate
Ocean pH).
Thus the
pH level of the
ocean surface layer is not the same thing as the total CO2 dissolved by the
oceans.
As discussed in the article on natural cycles of
ocean «acidification», and illustrated in the graph below by Martinez - Boti, over the past 15,000 years proxy data (thick lines) has determined
surface pH has rarely been in equilibrium with expectations (green line) based on models driven by atmospheric CO2.
Furthermore at a
pH below 8.1, CO2 concentrations in the
ocean's
surface rise higher than the atmosphere's, and this results in nighttime out - gassing of CO2.
Furthermore when
surface pH is above 8.1, the concentration of
surface CO2 is lower than atmospheric CO2, and this difference allows CO2 to diffuse into the
ocean.
Modulated by
ocean alkalinity, at 400 ppm atmospheric CO2,
surface seawater declines to
pH 8.2 or 8.1 (blue curve).
For example across the tropical
ocean, the ratio of net calcification to net photosynthesis for coccolithophores remained constant despite regions of widely varying
surface pH and calcite saturation levels (Maranon 2016).
Because
oceans contain over 50 times as much CO2 as the atmosphere,
surface pH is more sensitive to changes in the rates of upwelling of low -
pH, carbon - rich deep waters.
By the end of the 21st century, the additional decrease in
surface ocean pH is projected to be in the range of 0.06 — 0.32.
A smoothed time series of atmospheric CO2 mole fraction (in ppm) at the atmospheric Mauna Loa Observatory (top red line),
surface ocean partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2; middle blue line) and
surface ocean pH (bottom green line) at Station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific north of Hawaii for the period from 1990 — 2011.