It is the net impact of multiple
ocean surface temperature changes, rather than a single ocean basin change, that plays a main driver for the multi-decadal global warming accelerations and slowdowns.
The new finding of the importance of multiple
ocean surface temperature changes to the multi-decadal global warming accelerations and slowdowns is supported by a set of computer modeling experiments, in which observed sea surface temperature changes are specified in individual ocean basins, separately.
The multi-decadal global warming rate changes are primarily attributed to multiple
ocean surface temperature changes, according to research by Institute of Atmospheric Physics and Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
Since
the ocean surface temperature changes precede surface air temperature changes by several months, and since the top two metres of ocean contain as much heat capacity as the entire atmosphere above it, it is clear that surface temperature and atmospheric temperature is strongly influenced by the ocean, which is heated by the sun, not by back radiation.
The ocean surface temperature changes more slowly; the night - side ocean remains near the freezing point for the length of the simulation.
The ocean surface temperatures change gradually over time as the effect feeds through.
In accordance with that proposition
the ocean surface temperatures change cyclically and the polar atmospheric oscillations change cyclically.
Not exact matches
While this is bad news for the planet, it's good news for climate
change scientists who have — for the last two decades — puzzled over warming trends in
ocean surface temperatures for nearly 20 years.
That wind - driven circulation
change leads to cooler
ocean temperatures on the
surface of the eastern Pacific, and more heat being mixed in and stored in the western Pacific down to about 300 meters (984 feet) deep, said England.
One of the subtle
changes visible in the new data - set is how the Amazon's greenness corresponds to one of the long - known causes of rainfall or drought to the Amazon basin:
changes in sea
surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific
Ocean, called the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Sea -
surface temperature is an important driver of the weather, and because the
oceans change temperature very slowly compared with the air and land, they form a key, predictable component of seasonal forecasts.
Several studies linked this to
changes in sea
surface temperatures in the western Pacific and Indian
Oceans, but it was not clear if this was part of a long - term trend.
Tamsin Edwards, a climatologist at the Open University in the UK, says it is too early to tell, since
changes in the PDO can only be detected through statistical analysis of large amounts of data on
ocean surface temperatures.
The plan is to drop sensors into the surrounding
ocean to measure water
temperatures, then skim the ice for signs of
changes in
surface height.
The results suggest that the impact of sea ice seems critical for the Arctic
surface temperature changes, but the
temperature trend elsewhere seems rather due mainly to
changes in
ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric variability.
Ajay Kalra of the Desert Research Institute in Las Vegas has identified several regions of the Pacific
Ocean where
changes in sea
surface temperature appear to be statistically linked to the Colorado River's streamflow.
For example, tides, winds and sea
surface temperature could disrupt their migration habits, and
ocean color — referring to the water's chemical and particle content — could reflect
changes in the food chain.
The underlying pattern in this year's fire forecast is driven by the fact that the western Amazon is more heavily influence by sea
surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and the eastern Amazon's fire severity risk correlates to sea
surface temperature changes in the tropical Pacific
Ocean.
«Since oxygen concentrations in the
ocean naturally vary depending on variations in winds and
temperature at the
surface, it's been challenging to attribute any deoxygenation to climate
change.
The first image, based on data from January 1997 when El Nio was still strengthening shows a sea level rise along the Equator in the eastern Pacific
Ocean of up to 34 centimeters with the red colors indicating an associated
change in sea
surface temperature of up to 5.4 degrees C.
The effects of wind
changes, which were found to potentially increase
temperatures in the Southern
Ocean between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are over and above the ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse g
Ocean between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the
surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are over and above the
ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse g
ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse gases.
Linsley said the new results were «exciting,» suggesting that the «poorly understood, rapid rise» in
surface temperature from 1910 to 1940 was, in part, «related to
changes in trade wind strength and heat release from the upper water column» of the Pacific
Ocean.
NOAA makes these projections based on measurements of the
surface temperatures of the world's
oceans using satellites, predicting how those
temperatures will
change.
Changes in the
temperature of the sea
surface in the Indian and Atlantic
Oceans are linked to the pattern of rainfall over parts of the surrounding continents.
That's because the IPCC models only take into account
temperature changes at the
surface of glaciers, but not the rapid melting that occurs when glaciers calve and break up into the
ocean, Rignot said.
The most important bias globally was the modification in measured sea
surface temperatures associated with the
change from ships throwing a bucket over the side, bringing some
ocean water on deck, and putting a thermometer in it, to reading the thermometer in the engine coolant water intake.
For the
change in annual mean
surface air
temperature in the various cases, the model experiments show the familiar pattern documented in the SAR with a maximum warming in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and a minimum in the Southern
Ocean (due to ocean heat uptak
Ocean (due to
ocean heat uptak
ocean heat uptake)(2)
Consistent with observed
changes in
surface temperature, there has been an almost worldwide reduction in glacier and small ice cap (not including Antarctica and Greenland) mass and extent in the 20th century; snow cover has decreased in many regions of the Northern Hemisphere; sea ice extents have decreased in the Arctic, particularly in spring and summer (Chapter 4); the
oceans are warming; and sea level is rising (Chapter 5).
Note the more spatially uniform warming in the satellite tropospheric record while the
surface temperature changes more clearly relate to land and
ocean.
Scientists think this reversal in strength was driven by
changes in sea
surface temperature and upper -
ocean ventilation.
This is not only in excellent agreement with the observed
temperature changes at the
surface (blue stars), it also correctly reproduces the observed heat storage in the
oceans — a strong indicator that the model's heat budget is correct.
The interaction of the
ocean and atmosphere means that these
changes in sea
surface temperatures are translated into
changes in wind direction and strength.
To remove this difference in magnitude and focus instead on the patterns of
change, the authors scaled the vertical profiles of
ocean temperature (area - weighted with respect to each vertical
ocean layer) with the global
surface air
temperature trend of each period.
These rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have led to an increase in global average
temperatures of ~ 0.2 °C decade — 1, much of which has been absorbed by the
oceans, whilst the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 has led to major
changes in
surface ocean pH (Levitus et al., 2000, 2005; Feely et al., 2008; Hoegh - Guldberg and Bruno, 2010; Mora et al., 2013; Roemmich et al., 2015).
On a multi-decadal time scale the
changes in
surface air
temperature and
ocean heat down to 700 metres are generally in phase too.
They wrote that their comparisons of sea - level pressures, sea -
surface temperatures and land - based air
temperatures provided «consistent evidence for strong» regulation of
temperatures by
changes in
ocean cycles «from monthly to century time scales.»
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have all been found to significantly influence
changes in
surface air
temperature and rainfall (climate) on decadal and multi-decadal scales, and these natural
ocean oscillations have been robustly connected to
changes in solar activity.
CO2 is more soluble in colder than in warmer waters; therefore,
changes in
surface and deep
ocean temperature have the potential to alter atmospheric CO2.
Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have documented
changes in
surface, atmospheric, and oceanic
temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels;
ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor.
And then, if the
ocean surface water was «diluted» with isotopic light melt water, would this not be reflected with a similar drop in the Greenland ice cores, just by a
changing isotope signature of the source, instead of a
temperature drop?
The researchers use computer models to forecast future
ocean conditions such as
surface temperatures, salinity, and currents, and project how the distribution of different fish species could respond to climate
change.
Hence, relatively small exchanges of heat between the atmosphere and
ocean can cause significant
changes in
surface temperature.
During El Nino events the
ocean circulation
changes in such a way as to cause a large and temporary positive sea
surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific.
Gregory et al. (2002) used observed interior -
ocean temperature changes,
surface temperature changes measured since 1860, and estimates of anthropogenic and natural radiative forcing of the climate system to estimate its climate sensitivity.
I am also interested in how long is required for the
surface temp to «achieve» 95 % of the ECS
change: e.g. if climate sensitivity is 2K, how much time is required for the
surface temp to increase by 1.9 K; and then how much longer for the deep
oceans to increase by 1.9 K (or whatever 95 % of the projected increase in deep
ocean temperature works out to.)
The diagnostics, which are used to compare model - simulated and observed
changes, are often simple
temperature indices such as the global mean
surface temperature and
ocean mean warming (Knutti et al., 2002, 2003) or the differential warming between the SH and NH (together with the global mean; Andronova and Schlesinger, 2001).
There are some various proposed mechanisms to explain this that involve the
surface energy balance (e.g., less coupling between the ground
temperature and lower air
temperature over land because of less potential for evaporation), and also lapse rate differences over
ocean and land (see Joshi et al 2008, Climate Dynamics), as well as vegetation or cloud
changes.
This seems to be associated with particular patterns of
change in sea
surface temperature in the Atlantic and Pacific
oceans, a teleconnection which is well - captured in climate models on seasonal timescales.
For example, Frame et al. (2005) and Andronova and Schlesinger (2000) use
surface air
temperature alone, while Forest et al. (2002, 2006), Knutti et al. (2002, 2003) and Gregory et al. (2002a) use both
surface air
temperature and
ocean temperature change to constrain climate sensitivity.
The researchers discovered that periods of increased radiative forcing could produce drought - like conditions that extended indefinitely and that these conditions were closely tied to prolonged
changes in Pacific
Ocean surface temperatures.