«2015 is likely to be the hottest year on record with
ocean surface temperatures at the highest level since measurements began.
Not exact matches
It comes down to what every scientist knows too well — analyzing data collected by different methods, and
at different times, is a tricky business because some methods of collecting
ocean surface temperatures are more accurate than others.
Both the 2005 and 2010 droughts were the result of a «very, very unusual» weather pattern linked to higher sea
surface temperatures in the Atlantic
Ocean, said lead author Simon Lewis, a tropical forests expert
at the University of Leeds.
Tamsin Edwards, a climatologist
at the Open University in the UK, says it is too early to tell, since changes in the PDO can only be detected through statistical analysis of large amounts of data on
ocean surface temperatures.
Land and
Ocean Combined: The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for August 2014 was the record highest for the month, at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century average of 60.1 °F (15.6
Ocean Combined: The combined average
temperature over global land and
ocean surfaces for August 2014 was the record highest for the month, at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century average of 60.1 °F (15.6
ocean surfaces for August 2014 was the record highest for the month,
at 61.45 °F (16.35 °C), or 1.35 °F (0.75 °C) above the 20th century average of 60.1 °F (15.6 °C).
«With its dual view measurement capability, it will be used to derive accurate
surface temperature, a key parameter
at the
ocean - atmosphere boundary.
Zehner says that the agency plans to build and launch
at least five «sentinel» satellites to monitor not only trace gases that indicate pollution in the atmosphere, but also the
surface temperature of the
oceans, the movement of ice and the shifting of land masses.
This elevated body
temperature also allows more rapid growth, reducing the time they are vulnerable
at the
ocean surface.
Scientists working off the California coast use chemical - sniffing probes, robotically driven subs, and seafloor - tethered
temperature sensors to watch flows of lava pave over a once - thriving ecosystem
at hydrothermal vents several kilometers below the
ocean's
surface.
They also looked
at recent
ocean conditions, in particular the
temperature of the sea
surface near Japan and Florida the winter before a given breeding season.
«Since oxygen concentrations in the
ocean naturally vary depending on variations in winds and
temperature at the
surface, it's been challenging to attribute any deoxygenation to climate change.
The CPC officially considers it an event when the sea
surface temperatures in a key region of the
ocean reach
at least 0.5 °C, or about 1 °F, warmer than average.
Venus may have had a shallow liquid - water
ocean and habitable
surface temperatures for up to 2 billion years of its early history, according to computer modeling of the planet's ancient climate by scientists
at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York.
That's because the IPCC models only take into account
temperature changes
at the
surface of glaciers, but not the rapid melting that occurs when glaciers calve and break up into the
ocean, Rignot said.
The June 2013 globally - averaged
temperature across
ocean surfaces was the 10th highest in the 134 - year period of record,
at 0.48 °C (0.86 °F) above the 20th century average.
Note that we've got a paper soon to come out in «The Cryosphere» (and we'll have a poster
at AGU) looking
at recent «Arctic Amplification» that you discuss (the stronger rise in
surface air
temperatures over the Arctic
Ocean compared to lower latitudes).
With ENSO - neutral conditions present during the first half of 2013, the January — June global
temperature across land and
ocean surfaces tied with 2003 as the seventh warmest such period,
at 0.59 °C (1.06 °F) above the 20th century average.
However, for the globe as a whole,
surface air
temperatures over land have risen
at about double the
ocean rate after 1979 (more than 0.27 °C per decade vs. 0.13 °C per decade), with the greatest warming during winter (December to February) and spring (March to May) in the Northern Hemisphere.
For NOAA's Climate Prediction Center to make that declaration, the sea -
surface temperature in an eastern - central segment of the
ocean called the Nino 3.4 must be 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) above normal for
at least a month — and be forecasted to last that way for
at least three months.
The observed fact that
temperatures increases slower over the
oceans than over land demonstrates that the large heat capacity of the
ocean tries to hold back the warming of the air over the
ocean and produces a delay
at the
surface but nevertheless the atmosphere responds quit rapidly to increasing greenhouse gases.
Interestingly, those same winds are thought to be part of the mechanism burying heat in the Pacific
Ocean, leading to the slower pace of rising
temperatures at the planet's
surface in recent decades.
This is not only in excellent agreement with the observed
temperature changes
at the
surface (blue stars), it also correctly reproduces the observed heat storage in the
oceans — a strong indicator that the model's heat budget is correct.
Looking only
at the present - day sea -
surface temperatures will tell little until it is put in perspective with the assumed normal
ocean conditions.
Some may even still have magma
oceans today, whether because they are so close to their stars that silicate vaporizes
at the equilibrium
temperatures or through massive greenhouse warming of their
surfaces.
With the contribution of such record warmth
at year's end and with 10 months of the year record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the average global
temperature across land and
ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record warmth of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
The former is likely to overestimate the true global
surface air
temperature trend (since the
oceans do not warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air
temperature over the
ocean is predicted to rise
at a slightly higher rate than the
ocean temperature.
South of Spitzbergen, the
oceans have been ice free the past 2 winters, reason being, the warm waters from the Gulf Stream are travelling further north, and closer to the
ocean surface, only 25 meters
at the last measurement, The
ocean temperature has been +2 C instead of -2 C.
Looking
at the grafs, i notice that
ocean heat content jumps about the time
surface temperatures fall below ensemble mean.
At that point in geological history, global
surface temperatures were rising naturally with spurts of rapid regional warming in areas like the North Atlantic
Ocean.
At this time the E-W sea
surface temperature gradients in both the Pacific and Indian
Oceans increased [29], [31] intensifying the E-W moisture transport in the tropics, which greatly increased rainfall variability both on a precession and an ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) time - scales.
Scientists are currently interested in why
temperatures at the
surface of the
ocean have been rising slower than in previous decades, even though we're emitting greenhouse gases faster than ever.
It is no coincidence that shifts in
ocean and atmospheric indices occur
at the same time as changes in the trajectory of global
surface temperature.
After all, if average
surface temperature is 15 C, wouldn't you expect land and
ocean below the
surface to equilibrate
at roughly that
temperature (with a slightly rising gradient to account for the flow of Earth's internal heat)?
In the first plot, relating to
ocean temperatures, it is clearly warmer about 1000 years ago but current
temperatures are clearly warmer
at the
surface.
There is a difference between peaks and valleys in noisy processes (1998
surface air
temperature, 2007 record minimum ice, or shipping
at a few small areas on the edges of the Arctic
ocean) and CO2 forcing driven trends, especially when different measures.
But if something causes heat to be transferred from the
ocean surface into its deeps more rapidly than usual,
ocean surface temperatures could rise more slowly, not rise
at all, or even fall despite the increased backradiation.
First, global mean
surface temperature depends on the quantity of heat stored
at the
surface of the earth (earth, lower atmosphere, and the mixed layer of the
oceans).
«The combined average
temperature over global land and
ocean surfaces tied with 2010 as the highest on record for April,
at 58.09 °F (14.47 °C) or 1.39 °F (0.77 °C) above the 20th century average.»
Even if
ocean surface temperatures fall as in (3), heat continues to accumulate in the earth system until the amount of outgoing radiation
at the top of atmosphere equals the amount of incoming radiation there.
Global average air
temperature near the
surface is dominated by the
ocean (because it covers two thirds of the planet), particularly
at low latitudes.
This is not only in excellent agreement with the observed
temperature changes
at the
surface (blue stars), it also correctly reproduces the observed heat storage in the
oceans — a strong indicator that the model's heat budget is correct.
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and ocean in general, but significant at the interface betwen the surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the Earth's interior) temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
Temperature tends to respond so that, depending on optical properties, LW emission will tend to reduce the vertical differential heating by cooling warmer parts more than cooler parts (for the
surface and atmosphere); also (not significant within the atmosphere and
ocean in general, but significant
at the interface betwen the
surface and the air, and also significant (in part due to the small heat fluxes involved, viscosity in the crust and somewhat in the mantle (where there are thick boundary layers with superadiabatic lapse rates) and thermal conductivity of the core) in parts of the Earth's interior)
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differenti
temperature changes will cause conduction / diffusion of heat that partly balances the differential heating.
Now since relative humidity remains roughly constant
at the
ocean surface and the air's capacity to hold water increases with
temperature, relative humidity will actually decrease over land, particularly as one enters the continental interiors.
Looking
at the
surface temperature and the
ocean heat content changes together though allows us to pin down the total unrealised forcing (the net radiation imbalance) and demonstrate that the models are consistent with both the
surface and
ocean changes.
@ 48 If your speculation is correct, I assume that another consequence would be that, if / when concentrations of greenhouse gases start to drop, corresponding reductions in
surface ocean / land
temperatures would take place
at a much slower rate than would otherwise be the case: the surplus heat stored in the deep
ocean will gradually make its way to the
ocean surface, and continue to warm the atmosphere for decades, if not longer.
The change in radiation balance is more heating of the
oceans at one side (specifically high in the subtropics, as expected), but more heat released
at higher altitudes, thus somewhere acting as a net negative feedback to higher sea
surface temperatures.
Long waves (infrared) light from the sun, GHGs, clouds, are trapped
at the
surface of the
oceans, directly leading to increased «skin»
temperature, more water vapor (a very effective GHG), faster convection (with more loss of heat to space in the tropics),... How each of them converts to real regional / global
temperature increases / decreases is another point of discussion...
That solar activity is largely underestimated was a topic
at the SORCE meeting last October: «Widespread empirical evidence from the extensive Earth climate datasets suggests the presence of an 11 - year solar signal of order 0.1 K in
surface, atmospheric, and
ocean temperatures.
We must be
at cross purposes here Gavin because a much more well mixed
ocean would be disastrous for
surface layer
temperatures and the impact on the Troposphere.
The former is likely to overestimate the true global
surface air
temperature trend (since the
oceans do not warm as fast as the land), while the latter may underestimate the true trend, since the air
temperature over the
ocean is predicted to rise
at a slightly higher rate than the
ocean temperature.