b) That despite 30 years of anomalous
ocean surface warmth the oceans were not the cause (but it is accepted that recent ocean cooling is the cause of recent atmospheric cooling).
It is now 13 years since the 1998 culmination of a period of thirty years of unusual
ocean surface warmth that resulted in the atmospheric temperature peak of that year.
Overall
ocean surface warmth, however, was extraordinary throughout September, pushing well above the global average and ranging, in GFS models, from 0.7 C to 1.2 C above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 average.
Not exact matches
The findings outlined in the paper bolster the idea that much of the
warmth that would otherwise have heated the Earth's
surface has gone into the Pacific
Ocean.
The high October temperature was driven by
warmth across the globe over both the land and
ocean surfaces and was fairly evenly distributed between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.
«In the past this extensive
warmth was well isolated from the
surface layers and ice by a fresh cold layer... Our moorings demonstrated that this layer disappeared in 2013 - 14 and 2014 - 15 winters, which has never been observed of the Arctic
Ocean before,» said Polyakov.
With the contribution of such record
warmth at year's end and with 10 months of the year record warm for their respective months, including the last 8 (January was second warmest for January and April was third warmest), the average global temperature across land and
ocean surface areas for 2015 was 0.90 °C (1.62 °F) above the 20th century average of 13.9 °C (57.0 °F), beating the previous record
warmth of 2014 by 0.16 °C (0.29 °F).
The
warmth was due to the near - record strong El Niño that developed during the Northern Hemisphere spring in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific
Ocean and to large regions of record warm and much warmer - than - average sea surface temperatures in parts of every major ocean b
Ocean and to large regions of record warm and much warmer - than - average sea
surface temperatures in parts of every major
ocean b
ocean basin.
Most of Earth's land
surfaces were warmer than average or much warmer than average, according to the Land &
Ocean Temperature Percentiles map above, with record
warmth notable across most of equatorial and northeastern South America and parts of southeastern Asia.
Record high sea
surface temperatures across most of the Indian
Ocean, along with parts of the Atlantic
Ocean, and southwest Pacific
Ocean contributed to the May
warmth.
Record high sea
surface temperatures across most of the North Indian
Ocean, along with parts of the central equatorial and southwest Pacific
Ocean contributed to the April
warmth.
But even if CO2 were to stop increasing tomorrow, that extra 100ppm will remain there for many, perhaps hundreds of years, continuing to add
warmth, and as the
ocean slowly warms to equilibrium then more of the warming will be felt at the
surface.
CO2's effect of stimulating plant growth and increasing plant tolerance of aridity contributed to revegetating large areas of land that were desert at the LGM, compounding the effects of an increase in atmospheric humidity, reduced land /
ocean surface ocean ration, and increased
warmth, all of which combined caused the reduction of airborne dust and atmosperic albedo.
This
warmth and moisture also combines with increased
surface ocean temperatures along the coast each playing a role in the intensity of this kind of storm.
Ocean surface heat and anomalous warmth at the poles were deciding factors for the new September record with very few regions of the global ocean surface showing cooler than average temps and with extraordinary heat at the poles, especially in Antarc
Ocean surface heat and anomalous
warmth at the poles were deciding factors for the new September record with very few regions of the global
ocean surface showing cooler than average temps and with extraordinary heat at the poles, especially in Antarc
ocean surface showing cooler than average temps and with extraordinary heat at the poles, especially in Antarctica.
«There is [a] direct relationship between the
surface warmth of the
ocean and the amount of moisture in the air.
Source: press release for Myers et al., 2015 Sea Levels 2 - 4 m Higher Until ~ 5,000 Years Ago Imply
Surface Temps Were At Least 5 °C Warmer According to the accepted (IPCC) formula for calculating the contribution of ocean warming (thermal expansion) to sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of surface warmth yields -L
Surface Temps Were At Least 5 °C Warmer According to the accepted (IPCC) formula for calculating the contribution of
ocean warming (thermal expansion) to sea level rise upon reaching equilibrium, every additional degrees Celsius of
surface warmth yields -L
surface warmth yields -LSB-...]
When the
ocean surface is cooler,
warmth is taken from the
surface into deeper
ocean layers that «do not emit heat out of the planet».
If
ocean oscillations are as powerful a climate driver as the anti-CO2 alarmists claim then this graph suggests a simple story: that cold Pacific
surface waters swallowed up a big gulp of
warmth from 1940 - 1970, which the PDO then belched back up during its warm - phase in the 80s and 90s.
As Jo Nova describes meteorologist William Kininmonth's «deep cold abyss,» the
ocean depths form a great pool of «stored coldness» which is «periodically unleashed on the
surface temperatures,» a slumbering dragon that with a flick of its tail can grab away large amounts of
surface warmth.
The first three months of the year were characterized by warmer - than - average conditions across much of the world's
surface, with record
warmth across New Zealand and its surrounding
ocean, and scattered across Far East Russia, southern Asia, southern Australia, and across all
oceans.
If the
surface of the
ocean cools, would this not make it more receptive to
warmth from the atmosphere?
It doesn't even appear to be enough to raise the temperature of the shallow
surface layer by more than a fraction of a degree to say nothing of imparting any significant
warmth to the other 90 % of the volume of the global
ocean below the thermocline (400 + meters deep).
October 2017 was characterized by warmer - than - average conditions across much of the world's land and
ocean surfaces, with record
warmth scattered across the globe.
On the other side, the oceanographer Wallace Broecker [Broecker, 1997] has argued that the present warm climate in Europe depends on a circulation of
ocean water, with the Gulf Stream flowing north on the
surface and bringing
warmth to Europe, and with a counter-current of cold water flowing south in the deep
ocean.
If they existed at all, the cause did not seem to be the Sun, but quasi-cyclical shifts in the North Atlantic
Ocean's
surface warmth and winds.