Since
ocean temperature anomalies in the canonical Niño 3.4 region are now above 2 C — which are record values for the calendar month and not too far from their highest values ever observed at any time of year — current observations in the real world suggests that the models are very much on track.
Not exact matches
«The data showed that both greenhouse gases and sea surface
temperature anomalies contributed strongly to the risk of snow drought
in Oregon and Washington,» said Mote, a professor
in OSU's College of Earth,
Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
This image shows the sea surface
temperature anomaly in the Pacific
Ocean from April 14 — 21, 2008.
Time series of
temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14 °C show large reductions
in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper
ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm − 2 on average) than previous results.
The westerlies
in the Northern Hemisphere, which increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but which have since returned to about normal as part of NAO and NAM changes, alter the flow from
oceans to continents and are a major cause of the observed changes
in winter storm tracks and related patterns of precipitation and
temperature anomalies, especially over Europe.
(1) The warm sea surface
temperatures are not just some short - term
anomaly but are part of a long - term observed warming trend,
in which
ocean temperatures off the US east coast are warming faster than global average
temperatures.
Using the adjoint of an
ocean general circulation model, I try to understand the local and remote processes that generate
temperature anomalies in the Nordic Seas on different timescales and their potential contribution to decadal climate predictability.
During El Nino events the
ocean circulation changes
in such a way as to cause a large and temporary positive sea surface
temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific.
[Response: Short term seasonal forecasting is very much an experimental endeavour and relies not on the predictability due to changes
in forcings, but the persistence of
ocean temperature anomalies.
«
In the global [land and
ocean]
temperature anomaly data series of 1880 to 2010, the trend presented an increase of 0.6 oC per Century.
All siding with its infinite growth paradigm, so I'm not surprised to see you writing counter-pieces to the harsh truth, which, as it stands, is that we have a pretty much dead and severely warming
ocean, daily record - breaking jet - stream related weather incidents, which
in turn are caused by polar
temperature anomalies of +20 C as of late.
However, it is unknown if the temporal variability of these aerosols is a key factor
in the evolution of
ocean temperature anomalies.
And a study by Evan et al (2009) The Role of Aerosols
in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic
Ocean Temperature Anomalies
The mainstream media by and large got the story right — puzzling
anomaly tracked down, corrections
in progress after a little scientific detective work, consequences minor — even though a few headline writers got a little carried away
in equating a specific dip
in 1945
ocean temperatures with the more gentle 1940s - 1970s cooling that is seen
in the land measurements.
«Borehole
temperatures in the ice sheets spanning the last 6000 years show Antarctica repeatedly warming when Greenland cooled, and vice versa... The phenomena has been called the polar see - saw... Attempts to account for it have included the hypothesis of a south - flowing warm
ocean current with a built
in time lag... There is (however) no significant delay
in the Anarctica climate
anomaly...
The behavior of the
anomalies of
temperature and salinity
in the central Arctic
Ocean follow a first - order linear response to the AO with time constant of 5 years and a delay of 3 years.
McIntyre has a new post where he tries to rescue the previous «projections» — but he confuses the changes
in HadSST (
ocean temperatures, which he is plotting) and the changes
in HadCRUT3 (the global surface air
temperature anomaly) which is what his projection was for (as can be seen
in the figures
in the main post).
In other words, the
ocean is not a simple 1 - D slab that diffuses
temperature anomalies down from the surface.
As far as I can see you got the tied for 10th highest GISTemp
anomaly part right (I assume you have the Land -
Ocean Temperature Index
in mind, not the land only numbers) but my spreadsheet disagrees with your claim that the average
anomaly for 2013 to date would put it
in 3rd place — I get 9th.
England et al. suggest that the recent Pacific
Ocean surface
temperature anomalies are related to a strengthening of Pacific trade winds
in the past two decades, and that warming is likely to accelerate as the trade wind
anomaly abates.
Canadian Ice Service, 4.7, Multiple Methods As with CIS contributions
in June 2009, 2010, and 2011, the 2012 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter arctic ice thicknesses and extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model, which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere and sea ice predictors.
Third, note how the sea surface
temperature anomalies in the Western Pacific (and East Indian
Ocean) continue to rise as the La Niña event strengthens.
The entire OHC content
anomaly when converted from Joules back to
temperature in the
ocean is on the order of 0.09 C (I assume you can do the math and conversion, but if not let me know and I'll show my work).
The same holds true for a remarkable positive
temperature anomaly in the northern part of the Atlantic
Ocean.
While
temperatures remained elevated across the equatorial Pacific during the winter of 2014 - 15, the atmosphere never coupled to the changes
in the
ocean, failing to bring further westerly wind
anomalies, and an El Niño did not occur.
to be consistent, either we should have 100 points measuring the
temperature on a specific hour of the day on mountains and
in the
ocean, and no average world
temperature, or we should do the same with CO2, measure high for the day, low for the day, average, and make a global average from many regions, and then define an
anomaly on the same interval as the
temperature anomaly in order to be consistent.
In this region and off the US East Coast,
Ocean temperature anomalies regularly topped 4 degrees Celisus above average.
«
In response to the increase in greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the positive temperature anomaly initially appears in the well - mixed surface layer of the ocean called the «mixed layer»
In response to the increase
in greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, the positive temperature anomaly initially appears in the well - mixed surface layer of the ocean called the «mixed layer»
in greenhouse gas
in the atmosphere, the positive temperature anomaly initially appears in the well - mixed surface layer of the ocean called the «mixed layer»
in the atmosphere, the positive
temperature anomaly initially appears
in the well - mixed surface layer of the ocean called the «mixed layer»
in the well - mixed surface layer of the
ocean called the «mixed layer».
«However, the detailed analysis of the numerical experiment reveals that the absence of substantial surface warming
in the Circumpolar
Ocean is attributable not only to the large fraction of the area covered by the
oceans but also to the deep penetration of positive
temperature anomaly into the
oceans.»
Overall of course, we do see higher
temperature anomalies over land on a historical basis, owing to the huge modulation role that the
ocean plays
in the storage of excess energy and the higher humidity levels over the
ocean.
Given the fact the the bulk of the energy
in the TOA imbalance is getting stored
in the
ocean, yet
temperature anomalies over the
ocean are less than over the land, for the above stated reasons, the global combined land and
ocean (that is, air over the
ocean)
temperature anomalies actually tend to greatly understate to a the actual effects of the anthropogenic caused TOA
anomaly.
southern oscillation a large - scale atmospheric and hydrospheric fluctuation centered
in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean; exhibits a nearly annual pressure anomaly, alternatively high over the Indian Ocean and high over the South Pacific; its period is slightly variable, averaging 2.33 years; the variation in pressure is accompanied by variations in wind strengths, ocean currents, sea - surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding
Ocean; exhibits a nearly annual pressure
anomaly, alternatively high over the Indian
Ocean and high over the South Pacific; its period is slightly variable, averaging 2.33 years; the variation in pressure is accompanied by variations in wind strengths, ocean currents, sea - surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding
Ocean and high over the South Pacific; its period is slightly variable, averaging 2.33 years; the variation
in pressure is accompanied by variations
in wind strengths,
ocean currents, sea - surface temperatures, and precipitation in the surrounding
ocean currents, sea - surface
temperatures, and precipitation
in the surrounding areas
Given the context of this highly anomalous and extremely persistent atmospheric ridging over the northeastern Pacific
Ocean, it's very interesting to note that there has also been a region of strongly positive sea surface
temperature anomalies in same the general vicinity for the past 10 - 11 months.
Index Profile of the Stadium Wave: ■ Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)-- a monopolar pattern of sea - surface -
temperature (SST)
anomalies in theNorth Atlantic
Ocean.
Some processes arise through interactions with other parts of the climate system such as the
ocean (for example as manifested through sea surface
temperature anomalies), sea ice
anomalies, snow cover
anomalies as well as through coupling to the circulation
in the stratosphere.
In July, sea surface temperatures anomalies were already at 1.0 °C above normal in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, and in excess of 2.0 °C above normal across the eastern Pacific — and still risin
In July, sea surface
temperatures anomalies were already at 1.0 °C above normal
in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, and in excess of 2.0 °C above normal across the eastern Pacific — and still risin
in the central equatorial Pacific
Ocean, and
in excess of 2.0 °C above normal across the eastern Pacific — and still risin
in excess of 2.0 °C above normal across the eastern Pacific — and still rising.
RSS also shows a similar drop
in temperature above the world's
oceans, with the
anomaly falling from 0.38 ° K to 0.18 ° K.
Canadian Ice Service; 5.0; Statistical As with Canadian Ice Service (CIS) contributions
in June 2009 and June 2010, the 2011 forecast was derived using a combination of three methods: 1) a qualitative heuristic method based on observed end - of - winter Arctic Multi-Year Ice (MYI) extents, as well as an examination of Surface Air
Temperature (SAT), Sea Level Pressure (SLP) and vector wind
anomaly patterns and trends; 2) an experimental Optimal Filtering Based (OFB) Model which uses an optimal linear data filter to extrapolate NSIDC's September Arctic Ice Extent time series into the future; and 3) an experimental Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) prediction system that tests
ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice predictors.
Regardless of whether or not the
oceans integrate ENSO and portray it in sea surface temperature anomalies, the West Pacific and East Indian Oceans warm in response to both El Nino and La Nina events, so there is a cumulative response to ENSO by a major portion of the global o
oceans integrate ENSO and portray it
in sea surface
temperature anomalies, the West Pacific and East Indian
Oceans warm in response to both El Nino and La Nina events, so there is a cumulative response to ENSO by a major portion of the global o
Oceans warm
in response to both El Nino and La Nina events, so there is a cumulative response to ENSO by a major portion of the global
oceansoceans.
«The last century stands out as the
anomaly in this record of global
temperature since the end of the last ice age,» says Candace Major, program director
in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Division of
Ocean Sciences.
I'm very convinced that the physical process of global warming is continuing, which appears as a statistically significant increase of the global surface and tropospheric
temperature anomaly over a time scale of about 20 years and longer and also as trends
in other climate variables (e.g., global
ocean heat content increase, Arctic and Antarctic ice decrease, mountain glacier decrease on average and others), and I don't see any scientific evidence according to which this trend has been broken, recently.
For central India and its west coast, rainfall
in the early (15 May - 20 June) and late (15 September - 20 October) monsoon season correlates with Pacific
Ocean sea - surface
temperature (SST)
anomalies in the preceding month (April and August, respectively) sufficiently well, that those SST
anomalies...
Here we use an ensemble of simulations with a coupled
ocean — atmosphere model to show that the sea surface
temperature anomalies associated with central Pacific El Niño force changes
in the extra-tropical atmospheric circulation.
This unprecedented warmth is mainly due to the large positive
temperature anomalies in the Arctic
Ocean and over the North American continents.
Over
ocean stretches with a positive SST
anomaly air convection is higher (as the
temperature difference between the warm sea surface and the cool air higher up
in the troposphere is greater), so a higher likelihood for the formation of depressions exists and more precipitation is to be expected.
The best way to envision the relation between ENSO and precipitation over East Africa is to regard the Indian
Ocean as a mirror of the Pacific
Ocean sea surface
temperature anomalies [much like the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool creates such a SST mirror with the Atlantic
Ocean too]: during a La Niña episode, waters
in the eastern Pacific are relatively cool as strong trade winds blow the tropically Sun - warmed waters far towards the west.
The large interannual to decadal hydroclimatic variability
in winter precipitation is highly influenced by sea surface
temperature (SST)
anomalies in the tropical Pacific
Ocean and associated changes
in large - scale atmospheric circulation patterns [16].
Lamont's Ryan Abernathey and Richard Seager are studying how changes
in the
ocean cause sea surface
temperature to vary, and how these
anomalies drive changes
in atmospheric circulation to create extreme weather events.
The 1997/98 El Nino shifted Sea Surface
Temperature anomalies upward
in this area of the global
oceans, too.
... it seems clear that no massive
ocean temperature anomaly [i.e., cooling] did
in fact develop during the historical period [due to Land Use forcing].