Was the release of the land and
ocean temperature data sets, which were documented in papers previously published, delayed to follow Karl's June press release?
Near - global
ocean temperature data sets made available in recent years allow a direct calculation of thermal expansion.
When I reviewed
the ocean temperature data sets back in 2003 through 2005 that appeared to have been data taken in the N. Atlantic above the 30th parallel, with an indication of cooling in the 2300 to 1700 meter range.
Shaviv has one chart in his paper that show «Maximum annual depth (in meters) of the mixed layer based on
the ocean temperature data set of Levitus and Boyer.»
The consistency between these two data sets gives confidence in
the ocean temperature data set used for estimating depth - integrated heat content, and supports the trends in SST reported in Chapter 3.
Berkeley Earth combines our land data with a modified version of the HadSST
ocean temperature data set.
Not exact matches
One of the subtle changes visible in the new
data -
set is how the Amazon's greenness corresponds to one of the long - known causes of rainfall or drought to the Amazon basin: changes in sea surface
temperatures in the eastern Pacific
Ocean, called the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
«NASA has access to large - scale oceanographic
data sets ranging from primary productivity to
ocean temperature, currents and wind,» Moore said.
The NOAA report card on the Arctic was based on the CRUTEM 3v
data set (see figure below) which excludes
temperatures over the
ocean — thus showing an even less complete picture of the Arctic
temperatures.
However, comparison of the global, annual mean time series of near - surface
temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive
Ocean - Atmosphere
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
Other, more stable
data sets, such as satellite, radiosonde and
ocean temperatures yield smaller warming trends.
The NOAA report card on the Arctic was based on the CRUTEM 3v
data set (see figure below) which excludes
temperatures over the
ocean — thus showing an even less complete picture of the Arctic
temperatures.
However the
ocean temperatures are not recently rising (the ARGO
data set), and a strong and consistent trend should be observable with consistent CO2 increase.
There are also plenty of examples where models have correctly suggested that different
data sets were inconsistent (satellite vs. surface in the 1990s, tropical ice age
ocean temperatures vs. land
temperatures in the 1980s etc.) which were resolved in favor of the models.
There is definitely more to learn about how climate behaves and there are now
data sets for
ocean warming and carbon dioxide distribution that could benefit from better surface
temperature measurements.
From what I see from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) of land
temperatures and the Comprehensive
Ocean - Atmosphere
Data Set (COADS) of SST data, temperatures there were higher around the 1930's than now, and there is not much long term warming trend, except for the past few ye
Data Set (COADS) of SST
data, temperatures there were higher around the 1930's than now, and there is not much long term warming trend, except for the past few ye
data,
temperatures there were higher around the 1930's than now, and there is not much long term warming trend, except for the past few years.
«Another recent paper used a different NOAA
ocean surface
temperature data set to find that since 2003 the global average
ocean surface
temperature has been rising at a rate that is an order of magnitude smaller than the rate of increase reported in Karl's paper.»
Further, NCEI's
ocean surface
temperature analysis disagrees substantially with NOAA's other SST
data set (OISST), using satellite
data and the buoys.
Scientists on both sides of the climate debate have been critical of Karl's paper and the adjustments made to
temperature in the new
data set, particularly the
ocean data analysis.
There is doubt about everything,
temperature data sets and lately also the
ocean data sets, see revised
ocean heat content http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/OceanCooling/ http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2008/11/revised-
ocean-heat-content.html
I've been looking at the Hansen material which involves tropical
oceans and have had occasion to review some of the
temperature data sets, including Agudelho and Curry, which is an interesting and useful comparison of satellite and surface trends — a topic in the air from the US CCSP report.
Which
data sets (raw or homogenized trends) best agrees with the hypothesis that
ocean temperatures drive regional warming trends?
However, comparison of the global, annual mean time series of near - surface
temperature (approximately 0 to 5 m depth) from this analysis and the corresponding SST series based on a subset of the International Comprehensive
Ocean - Atmosphere
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
Data Set (ICOADS) database (approximately 134 million SST observations; Smith and Reynolds, 2003 and additional
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2
data) shows a high correlation (r = 0.96) for the period 1955 to 2005.
More generally, we are using multiple sensor & associated
data sets (low frequency microwave radiometers,
ocean color, sea surface
temperature, wind, wave, altimeter products, model and in situ
data..)
Other, more stable
data sets, such as satellite, radiosonde and
ocean temperatures yield smaller warming trends.
Other SAT
data sets such as the Climatic Research Unit
Temperature, version 4, (CRUTEM4; Osborn and Jones 2014), and the Merged Land —
Ocean Surface
Temperature analysis (MLOST), version 3.5, (Vose et al. 2012) give similar results (not shown).
After RR & LOL i think not quite, but, yes, it is the warmest January on that 32 year
data set and further reading on Spencer's site indicate the
ocean temperatures tally with it....
Actually Fielding's use of that graph is quite informative of how denialist arguments are framed — the selected bit of a selected graph (and don't mention the fastest warming region on the planet being left out of that
data set), or the complete passing over of short term variability vs longer term trends, or the other measures and indicators of climate change from
ocean heat content and sea levels to changes in ice sheets and minimum sea ice levels, or the passing over of issues like lag time between emissions and effects on
temperatures... etc..
So, perhaps, it should be no surprise that in a June 2015 article in Science magazine, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) authors attempted to eliminate the pause in warming by ignoring their own satellite
data and introducing new global
ocean surface
temperature sets whose readings are taken from buoys and engine - intakes on vessels.
Using precipitation
data from the University of East Anglia and
ocean temperatures from the Hadley Centre combined with climate models, the researchers were able to add or omit the oceanic
temperatures and compare the two
sets of results.
Earth's global average surface
temperature has risen as shown in this plot of combined land and
ocean measurements from 1850 to 2012, derived from three independent analyses of the available
data sets.
The dust −
temperature relationships for the Southern
Ocean and Chinese Loess are shown in Fig. 3 B and C. To further minimize possible issues connected with time scales,
data uncertainty, and uneven
data distribution across
temperature ranges, we collect the dust deposition −
temperature data points for each
data set combination in Fig. 3 into four bins (see Materials and Methods).
Other
data sets such as
ocean heat content, sea ice extent, whatever, are not sufficiently mature or long - range... Further, the surface
temperature is most relevant to climate change impacts, since humans and land ecosystems live on the surface.»
«They do not include any
data from the Argo array that is the world's best coherent
data set on
ocean temperatures.»
I don't prefer one over the other as an intrinsic metric (they provide two different pieces of information), but I find the
ocean heat content
data to be a much less mature
data set than the surface
temperature data set.
In addition, the analysis requires a
data set for
ocean surface
temperature measurements in the presatellite era.