These trends in extreme weather events are accompanied by longer - term changes as well, including surface and
ocean temperature increase over recent decades, snow and ice cover decrease and sea level rise.
I suspect, however, a graph of that might look rather similar to that plot showing global land -
ocean temperature increases over time.
Not exact matches
Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming
over the past century, with
temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly
over land as
over the
oceans.
Southern
Ocean seafloor water
temperatures are projected to warm by an average of 0.4 °C
over this century with some areas possibly
increasing by as much as 2 °C.
The effects of wind changes, which were found to potentially
increase temperatures in the Southern
Ocean between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are over and above the ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse g
Ocean between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are
over and above the
ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse g
ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse gases.
Surface specific humidity has generally
increased after 1976 in close association with higher
temperatures over both land and
ocean.
It's the
ocean «These small global
temperature increases of the last 25 years and
over the last century are likely natural changes that the globe has seen many times in the past.
The westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere, which
increased from the 1960s to the 1990s but which have since returned to about normal as part of NAO and NAM changes, alter the flow from
oceans to continents and are a major cause of the observed changes in winter storm tracks and related patterns of precipitation and
temperature anomalies, especially
over Europe.
The observed and projected rates of
increase in freshwater runoff could potentially disrupt
ocean circulation if global
temperatures rise by 3 to 4 °C
over this century as forecast by the IPCC 2001 report.
The observed fact that
temperatures increases slower
over the
oceans than
over land demonstrates that the large heat capacity of the
ocean tries to hold back the warming of the air
over the
ocean and produces a delay at the surface but nevertheless the atmosphere responds quit rapidly to
increasing greenhouse gases.
Global mean
temperatures averaged
over land and
ocean surfaces, from three different estimates, each of which has been independently adjusted for various homogeneity issues, are consistent within uncertainty estimates
over the period 1901 to 2005 and show similar rates of
increase in recent decades.
Increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide could also significantly alter ocean temperatures and chemistry over the next century, which could lead to increased and more severe mass bleaching and other stressors on cor
Increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide could also significantly alter
ocean temperatures and chemistry
over the next century, which could lead to
increased and more severe mass bleaching and other stressors on cor
increased and more severe mass bleaching and other stressors on coral reefs.
Because of their effect on lowering the
temperature gradient of the cool skin layer,
increased levels of greenhouse gases lead to more heat being stored in the
oceans over the long - term.
A sea breeze, which is caused by the
temperature and pressure difference between warm areas inland and the cool air
over the
ocean, often develops on warm summer days as well,
increasing the on - shore flow pattern and maintaining a constant flow of marine stratus clouds onto the coastal areas.
• The methanetrack.org website has shown significant
increases in atmospheric methane concentrations
over Antarctica this austral winter (which I believe are due to
increases in methane emissions from the Southern
Ocean seafloor due to
increases in the
temperature of bottom water
temperatures), and if this trend continues, then the Southern Hemisphere could be a significant source of additional atmospheric methane (this century).
Soundbite version: «Global warming is expected to
increase sea surface
temperatures, create a thicker and warmer
ocean surface layer, and
increase the moisture in the atmosphere
over the
oceans — all conditions that should lead to a general
increase in hurricane intensity and maybe frequency.»
If global surface
temperatures continue not to
increase v quickly
over the next decade or two then I think this could seriously slow down action to cut GHG emissions, no matter how well understood the «slow - down» is, and no matter how much additional heat is measured accumulatng in the
oceans.
According to the investigation: «There is a strong
increasing trend in sea surface
temperature over the northern Indian
Ocean during the 1952 - 96 time period» and «Soot was a sizeable fraction of the aerosol mix and caused substantial absorption of solar radiation.
# 192 «For example a strengthening of wind
over some oceanic region http://web.science.unsw.edu.au/~matthew/nclimate2106-incl-SI.pdf then would
increase the heat flow atmosphere - >
ocean, leading to lower (dynamic) equilibrium
temperature in the atmosphere which of course occurs very fast, as the thermal mass of the atmosphere is very low compared to the net energy throughput.»
Now since relative humidity remains roughly constant at the
ocean surface and the air's capacity to hold water
increases with
temperature, relative humidity will actually decrease
over land, particularly as one enters the continental interiors.
Maue discussed how «two camps» of researchers claim to have
increased predictability of such weather events
over periods of a month or more by using clues either in the Arctic, related to the extent of sea ice and snow cover, or in the
temperature of surface waters across the Pacific
Ocean.
Paul S (# 1)-- Since the Planck Response dominates
over positive feedback responses to
temperature, wouldn't a La Nina - like failure of surface
temperature to rise lead to an
increase rather than a reduction in energy accumulation compared with accumulation during a surface warming — presumably a small
increase, so that the observed rise in
ocean heat content would still be substantial?
Is there a discernible point, maybe in a model, that includes reduced albedo in the summer, that might show an acceleration of melting above the average
temperature increase curve for the region so that
ocean warmth has an
increasing role
over atmospheric??
IMHO, the
increase in speed of the Hadley / Walker cells may be the result of higher
ocean temperatures (or
temperature differences
over long distances), not the origin (or to a lesser extent, as less clouds lead to some extra insolation, thus warming).
Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30 - year trend that has been related to an
increase in
ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere 1 &mdas
ocean temperatures over the Atlantic
Ocean and elsewhere 1 &mdas
Ocean and elsewhere 1 — 4.
However, at the same time, there's been the steady
increase in subtropical
ocean surface
temperatures in the Atlantic Warm Pool, leading to record water
temperatures off the US east coast in winter, which tends to fuel more extreme storms (via the
increase in water vapor pressure
over the warmer
ocean).
Scientists» measurements,
over the last 30 years or so, seem to reflect a steady
increase in CO2 emissions, which seem to be causing both a rise in
temperature and change in
ocean ph toward acidity.
1) It seems to me that the key mechanism for any impact must be the changes that
increased arctic
ocean temperatures will impose on the atmospheric circulation feature known as the Polar Cell, and via this on the Ferrel cell which sits
over the mid latitudes.
And at last they have found a new one: they suggest that the difference in the
temperature increase over land and the
oceans during the last decades might be due to contaminations of the land
temperature record — They call it an anomalous behaviour — ignoring that it corresponds fully to what is physically expected.
There is also a natural variability of the climate system (about a zero reference point) that produces El Nino and La Nina effects arising from changes in
ocean circulation patterns that can make the global
temperature increase or decrease,
over and above the global warming due to CO2.
Nice misconception you have going there but the real argument is that CO2 can lower the
temperature gradient of the cool skin layer, which slows the heat loss to the atmosphere and
increased levels of greenhouse gases lead to more heat being stored in the
oceans over the long - term.
Though hurricanes strenthen when moving
over warmer water, this is merely due to the fact that the horizontal
temperature gradient of the atmosphere is not as steep, i.e. the
temperature differential between the water and the atmosphere
increases as the storm hits tropical waters; it is not the
ocean temperature per se that drives the hurricane.
However, as the
ocean's surface
temperature increases over time from the effects of climate change, more and more heat is released into the atmosphere.
During times of warmth, the
ocean water levels rise as atmospheric moisture
increases but at a rate decelerating when atmospheric
temperatures over oceans approach say 33 C.
Similarly, if there is an
increase in the difference between land and
ocean temperatures, the rising air
over land draws in moist air from the
ocean and lifts it, leading to monsoons.
In your case, the ice cores must be wrong, in my case, there is no problem with ice core CO2 (neither with historical CO2 levels
over the
oceans), as the 0.3 K
temperature increase in the period 1900 - 1950 causes an
increase of about 0.9 ppmv CO2, which is within the accuracy of the ice core measurements, the rest of the observed
increase is due to human emissions.
Global warming
Increase in average global
temperatures of the atmosphere and
oceans over the past 100 years.
That reduces the
increase of CO2 in the atmosphere somewhat, but as there is still an
increase, the
oceans are more important as
temperature / CO2 regulator on medium term, while vegetation is faster on very short term (
over the seasons CO2 goes down with
temperature,
over a year, CO2 goes up with
temperature).
The 2009 State of the Climate Report of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tells us that climate change is real because of rising surface air
temperatures since 1880
over land and the
ocean,
ocean acidification, sea level rise, glaciers melting, rising specific humidity,
ocean heat content
increasing, sea ice retreating, glaciers diminishing, Northern Hemisphere snow cover decreasing, and so many other lines of evidence.
The main dynamical driver of the monsoon is therefore the positive moisture - advection feedback (Fig. 1 A): The release of latent heat from precipitation
over land adds to the
temperature difference between land and
ocean, thus driving stronger winds from
ocean to land and
increasing in this way landward advection of moisture, which leads to enhanced precipitation and associated release of latent heat.
Perhaps the «unexplained»
increase in late 20th century
temperature has simply been a response to decreasing humidity
over the
oceans?
Similarly, Matthew England and colleagues reproduced observed
temperature trends by providing the model with the pronounced and unprecedented strengthening in Pacific trade winds
over the past two decades — and the winds in turn lead to
increased heat uptake by the
oceans.
Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade
over the same timeframe), but that is because
over the past decade virtually every natural influence on global
temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising aerosols emissions, and
increased heat storage in the deep
oceans).
From the article: A new study released Monday found that warming
temperatures in Pacific
Ocean waters off the coast of North America
over the past century closely followed natural changes in the wind, not
increases in greenhouse gases related to global warming.
During that same period, average annual rainfall in New South Wales declined by 3.6 inches (92 millimeters).3 Scientists think the decline in autumn rainfall in southeast Australia since the late 1950s may be partly due to
increases in heat - trapping gases in Earth's atmosphere.3, 14 Major bushfires
over southeast Australia are linked to the positive phase of an
ocean cycle called the «Indian Ocean Dipole» — when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the western Indian Ocean, likely in response to global warming.1
ocean cycle called the «Indian
Ocean Dipole» — when sea surface temperatures are warmer than average in the western Indian Ocean, likely in response to global warming.1
Ocean Dipole» — when sea surface
temperatures are warmer than average in the western Indian
Ocean, likely in response to global warming.1
Ocean, likely in response to global warming.15, 16
«Atlantic tropical cyclones are getting stronger on average, with a 30 - year trend that has been related to an
increase in
ocean temperatures over the Atlantic Ocean and elsewhere.&r
ocean temperatures over the Atlantic
Ocean and elsewhere.&r
Ocean and elsewhere.»
If there has been only a fairly small change in
ocean heat flux
over the last century and the ratio of global
increase in surface
temperature to
increase in forcing is low (as the evidence certainly suggests), then it follows that climate sensitivity is low — perhaps of the order of 1.5 C.
And while
temperature should decrease the total amount of carbon in the upper layer of the
oceans, we see an
increase in carbon (and a decrease in 13C / 12C ratio)- Ice cores, tree carbon and coralline sponges all give small 13C / 12C variations
over the Holocene, but all show a steady and ever faster decline since about 1850.
With a rise in the overall
temperature of the
ocean,
ocean - borne storms such as tropical storms and hurricanes, which get their fierce and destructive energy from the warm waters they pass
over, could
increase in force.
C:
increase in atmospheric CO2 from pre-industrial to present is anthropogenic (D / A) S: best guess for likely climate sensitivity (NUM) s: 2 - sigma range of S (NUM) a:
ocean acidification will be a problem (D / A) L: expected sea level rise by 2100 in cm (all contributions)(NUM) B: climate change will be beneficial (D / A) R: CO2 emissions need to be reduced drastically by 2050 (D / A) T: technical advances will take care of any problems (D / A) r: the 20th century global
temperature record is reliable (D / A) H:
over the last 1000 years global
temperature was hockey stick shaped (D / A) D: data has been intentionally distorted by scientist to support the idea of anthropogenic climate change (D / A) g: the CRU - mails are important for the science (D / A) G: the CRU - mails are important otherwise (D / A)