Sentences with phrase «ocean variability for»

The world is cooling from both TSI and ocean variability for the rest of the decade.

Not exact matches

A study led by scientists at the GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scOcean Research Kiel shows that the ocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scocean currents influence the heat exchange between ocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scocean and atmosphere and thus can explain climate variability on decadal time scales.

The results suggest that the impact of sea ice seems critical for the Arctic surface temperature changes, but the temperature trend elsewhere seems rather due mainly to changes in ocean surface temperatures and atmospheric variability.

They also influence whether CO2 is stored in the ocean or the atmosphere, which is very important for global climate variability.

«Whereas the Pacific was previously considered the main driver of tropical climate variability and the Atlantic and Indian Ocean its slaves, our results document a much more active role for the Atlantic Ocean in determining conditions in the other two ocean baOcean its slaves, our results document a much more active role for the Atlantic Ocean in determining conditions in the other two ocean baOcean in determining conditions in the other two ocean baocean basins.

Time series of temperature anomaly for all waters warmer than 14 °C show large reductions in interannual to inter-decadal variability and a more spatially uniform upper ocean warming trend (0.12 Wm − 2 on average) than previous results.

Shifts in internal temperature variability, measured through SST variance and skewness, are also occurring and contribute to much of the MHW trends observed over the remainder of the global ocean, particularly for MHW duration and intensity.

«This is important for regional planning, because it allows policymakers to identify places where climate change dominates the observed sea level rise and places where the climate change signal is masked by shorter - term regional variability caused by natural ocean climate cycles.»

For the late 20th century, a period of strong greenhouse gas increases, but with diminishing solar influence, variability in ocean warming shown in the profiles falls much further still.

January 2004: «Directions for Climate Research» Here, ExxonMobil outlines areas where it deemed more research was necessary, such as «natural climate variability, ocean currents and heat transfer, the hydrological cycle, and the ability of climate models to predict changes on a regional and local scale.»

Figure 3 - Ocean temperature trends for the a) control (aka natural variability), b) early 20th century, and c) late 20th century, simulations.

As the science develops, it is important for managers to design select examples of coral reef areas in a variety of ocean chemistry and oceanographic regimes (e.g., high and low pH and aragonite saturation state; areas with high and low variability of these parameters) for inclusion in MPAs.

For naysayers who may claim that natural ocean processes only explain variability, and not overall trends (warming), we have this:

Ocean heat content variability is thus a critical variable for detecting the effects of the observed increase in greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere and for resolving the Earth's overall energy balance.

Watterson, I.G., 2001: Zonal wind vacillation and its interaction with the ocean: Implications for interannual variability and predictability.

We present new estimates of the variability of ocean heat content based on: a) additional data that extends the record to more recent years; b) additional historical data for earlier years.

We quantify the interannual - to - decadal variability of the heat content (mean temperature) of the world ocean from the surface through 3000 - meter depth for the period 1948 to 1998.

Dr. Kevin Trenberth and his team have made a unique contribution through the investigation of climate variability and trends in the past, and through the use of models and other creative efforts to reconstruct river discharge into the oceans across the planet for almost 1000 river basins.

And since we don't have good ocean heat content data, nor any satellite observations, or any measurements of stratospheric temperatures to help distinguish potential errors in the forcing from internal variability, it is inevitable that there will be more uncertainty in the attribution for that period than for more recently.

In this case, there has been an identification of a host of small issues (and, in truth, there are always small issues in any complex field) that have involved the fidelity of the observations (the spatial coverage, the corrections for known biases), the fidelity of the models (issues with the forcings, examinations of the variability in ocean vertical transports etc.), and the coherence of the model - data comparisons.

It is difficult to establish the exact mechanism for this stronger heat flux to deeper water, given the diverse internal variability in the oceans.

Periods that are of possibly the most interest for testing sensitivities associated with uncertainties in future projections are the mid-Holocene (for tropical rainfall, sea ice), the 8.2 kyr event (for the ocean thermohaline circulation), the last two millennia (for decadal / multi-decadal variability), the last interglacial (for ice sheets / sea level) etc..

There is a significant component of «synoptic» variability in the ocean as well (eddies etc.) and so while the variation is less than in the atmosphere, for many areas there aren't / weren't sufficient independent observations to be sure of the mean values.

«Climate forcing results in an imbalance in the TOA radiation budget that has direct implications for global climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth's radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture.»

As to the bottom line, we are talking about changes to a fundamental part of the ocean carbon cycle, far outside the range of natural variability, that are irreversible and will last for thousands of years.

Gavin, I agree completely with the standard picture that you describe, but I don't agree with the claim that ``... as surface temperatures and the ocean heat content are rising together, it almost certainly rules out intrinsic variability of the climate system as a major cause for the recent warming».

«Firstly, as surface temperatures and the ocean heat content are rising together, it almost certainly rules out intrinsic variability of the climate system as a major cause for the recent warming»

Solar data seems to have such a millenarian cycle that could drive a large internal variability in the ocean circulation, for example.

Consequently, some models have tropical Pacific variability that is smaller than observed, while for some it is larger than observed (this is mostly a function of the ocean model resolution and climatological depth of the equatorial thermocline — but a full description is beyond the scope of a blog post).

As noted in that post, RealClimate defines the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation («AMO») as, «A multidecadal (50 - 80 year timescale) pattern of North Atlantic ocean - atmosphere variability whose existence has been argued for based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data, and coupled Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model («AOGCM») simulatocean - atmosphere variability whose existence has been argued for based on statistical analyses of observational and proxy climate data, and coupled Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Model («AOGCM») simulatOcean General Circulation Model («AOGCM») simulations.

In principle, changes in climate on a wide range of timescales can also arise from variations within the climate system due to, for example, interactions between the oceans and the atmosphere; in this document, this is referred to as «internal climate variability».

By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the global mean surface temperature, the land - ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over land and the mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.

The possible importance of (forced or unforced) modes of variability within the climate system, for instance related to the deep ocean circulation, have also been highlighted (Bianchi and McCave, 1999; Duplessy et al., 2001; Marchal et al., 2002; Oppo et al., 2003).

Whether ocean circulation models... neither explicitly accounting for the energy input into the system nor providing for spatial variability in the mixing, have any physical relevance under changed climate conditions is at issue.»

The overarching goal of this WCRP research effort, led by WCRP's Core Project «Climate and Ocean Variability, Predictability and Change» (CLIVAR) as a Research Focus, is to establish a quantitative understanding of the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of regional to local sea level variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone Variability, Predictability and Change» (CLIVAR) as a Research Focus, is to establish a quantitative understanding of the natural and anthropogenic mechanisms of regional to local sea level variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone variability; to promote advances in observing systems required for an integrated sea level monitoring; and to foster the development of sea level predictions and projections that are of increasing benefit for coastal zone management.

Cross Cutting Priority 1: (Integrated Global Environmental Observation and Data Management System) focuses on developing a global - to - local environmental observation and data management systems for the comprehensive, continuous monitoring of coupled ocean / atmospheric / land systems that enhance NOAA's ability to protect lives, property, expand economic opportunities, understand climate variability, and promote healthy ecosystems.

So one can rationalize the result that the centers of action for internal variability in the oceans migrate poleward from the tropics and subtropics to higher latitudes as one moves to lower frequencies.

The evolution of El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability can be characterized by various ocean - atmosphere feedbacks, for example, the influence of ENSO related sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the low - level wind and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial tropical Pacific, which in turn affects the evolution of the SST.

It has taken quite a few years for Trenberth and his colleagues to piece together the role of oceans in climate variability.

My interest is to understand reasons for variability in ocean and atmosphere circulation that are the proximate cause of most climate variation over the Holocene at least.

«The use of a coupled ocean — atmosphere — sea ice model to hindcast (i.e., historical forecast) recent climate variability is described and illustrated for the cases of the 1976/77 and 1998/99 climate shift events in the Pacific.

The demonstrated ability of GRACE to measure interannual OBP variability on a global scale is unprecedented and has important implications for assessing deep ocean heat content and ocean dynamics.

Stevenson, S., B.S. Powell, M.A. Merrifield, K.M. Cobb, J. Nusbaumer, and D. Noone, 2015: Characterizing seawater oxygen isotopic variability in a regional ocean modeling framework: Implications for coral proxy records.

Previous large natural oscillations are important to examine: however, 1) our data isn't as good with regards to external forcings or to historical temperatures, making attribution more difficult, 2) to the extent that we have solar and volcanic data, and paleoclimate temperature records, they are indeed fairly consistent with each other within their respective uncertainties, and 3) most mechanisms of internal variability would have different fingerprints: eg, shifting of warmth from the oceans to the atmosphere (but we see warming in both), or simultaneous warming of the troposphere and stratosphere, or shifts in global temperature associated with major ocean current shifts which for the most part haven't been seen.

- ARAMATE (The reconstruction of ecosystem and climate variability in the north Atlantic region using annually resolved archives of marine and terrestrial ecosystems)- CLIM - ARCH-DATE (Integration of high resolution climate archives with archaeological and documentary evidence for the precise dating of maritime cultural and climatic events)- CLIVASH2k (Climate variability in Antarctica and Southern Hemisphere in the past 2000 years)- CoralHydro2k (Tropical ocean hydroclimate and temperature from coral archives)- Global T CFR (Global gridded temperature reconstruction method comparisons)- GMST reconstructions - Iso2k (A global synthesis of Common Era hydroclimate using water isotopes)- MULTICHRON (Constraining modeled multidecadal climate variability in the Atlantic using proxies derived from marine bivalve shells and coralline algae)- PALEOLINK (The missing link in the Past — Downscaling paleoclimatic Earth System Models)- PSR2k (Proxy Surrogate Reconstruction 2k)

There are specific physical candidates that may explain the difference, for example volcanic activity, proper representation of ocean temperatures, and variability in ocean processes.

It was along simliar lines — trying to take out natural variability to see what the underlying warming is and looking at ocean to atmosphere energy flux (i.e. ENSO) as one reason for much of that natural variability.

Since most of our ocean sensors are on the surface, and «ocean temperature» is often used as shorthand for «ocean surface temperature», it seems to me that we should see the oceans warming at least as fast as the land, if internal ocean variability could explain global warming.

Spherical harmonics are the natural choice for representing patterns on a sphere, but the oceans don't cover the whole of the sphere and the physical processes that govern changes in SST might mean that harmonics aren't the most natural set of patterns for efficiently capturing that variability.

It's perfectly possible that ocean variability keeps the atmospheric temperature approximately constant for significant periods while the OHC keeps on rising.