Sentences with phrase «ocean warming estimates»

Forest et al. (2006) demonstrate that the inclusion of natural forcing affects the estimated PDF of climate sensitivity since net negative natural forcing in the second half of the 20th century favours higher sensitivities than earlier results that disregarded natural forcing (Forest et al., 2002; see Figure 9.20), particularly if the same ocean warming estimates were used.

Not exact matches

Using these data, researchers fine - tuned estimates from previous foram studies that captured polar conditions to show tropical oceans warmed substantially in the Eocene, but not as much as polar oceans.

He is the principal investigator for a mission called Oceans Melting Greenland (affectionately known as OMG), a five - year effort to assess the extent to which warmer oceans are melting Greenland's glaciers, and how this information can be used to better estimate global sea levelOceans Melting Greenland (affectionately known as OMG), a five - year effort to assess the extent to which warmer oceans are melting Greenland's glaciers, and how this information can be used to better estimate global sea leveloceans are melting Greenland's glaciers, and how this information can be used to better estimate global sea level rise.

They found glacial fjords hundreds of meters deeper than previously estimated; the full extent of the marine - based portions of the glaciers; deep troughs enabling Atlantic Ocean water to reach the glacier fronts and melt them from below; and few shallow sills that limit contact with this warmer water.

In one study published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2007, scientists at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany, estimated the mass redistribution resulting from ocean warming would shorten the day by 120 microseconds, or nearly one tenth of a millisecond, over the next two centuries.

«An important result of this paper is the demonstration that the oceans have continued to warm over the past decade, at a rate consistent with estimates of Earth's net energy imbalance,» Rintoul said.

Using float data, scientists recalibrated sparse historical measurements and estimates of ocean warming, concluding that the upper 2,700 feet of the world's oceans had warmed by between a quarter and a half more than had previously been realized.

I'd love to know what they did take into account in attempting to model that period — must include astronomical location, sun's behavior, best estimates about a lot of different conditions — where the continents were, what the ocean circulation was doing, whether there had been a recent geological period that laid down a lot of methane hydrates available to be tipped by Pliocene warming into bubbling out rapidly.

The IPCC's overall estimate of global sea level rise, which includes all the other factors that affect sea levels, such as melt from Greenland's ice sheets and the oceans expanding as they warm, is 60 cm by 2100 (with a likely range of 42 to 80 cm).

Cazenave 2009 uses satellite gravity measurements to create two independent estimates of ocean heat - both find warming.

We assess the heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing trend in ocean heat content.

Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.

The attribution studies fail to account for the large multi-decadal (and longer) oscillations in the ocean, which have been estimated to account for 20 % to 40 % to 50 % to 100 % of the recent warming.

In the non-stationary environment caused by ocean warming, traditional approaches, which are solely based on analysing historical data, increasingly fail to estimate today's hazard probabilities.

Using Mg / Ca paleothermometry from the planktonic foraminifera Globigerinoides ruber from the past 500 k.y. at Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 871 in the western Pacific warm pool, we estimate the tropical Pacific climate sensitivity parameter (λ) to be 0.94 — 1.06 °C (W m − 2) − 1, higher than that predicted by model simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum or by models of doubled greenhouse gas concentration forcing.

Second, the quantity of methane necessary to explain the carbon isotope ratio, as calculated by Dickens, would be much less than that required to warm ocean and atmosphere temperatures to the extent estimated by PETM temperature proxies and calculated by physical climate models.

However even the moderate scenarios which have eventual stabilisation give more warming than 0.8 C. Even in the extremely unlikely event that there is no further growth in emissions, the current planetary energy imbalance (estimated to be almost 1W / m2)(due to the ocean thermal inertia) implies that there is around 0.5 C extra warming already in the pipeline that will be realised over the next 20 to 30 years.

Neither volcanoes nor a warming ocean would suck up atmospheric oxygen... As a side remark: the subtle difference between the rise in CO2 and the equivalent drop in O2 permits to estimate the partitioning of the ocean and land sinks of CO2.

If you look at the Fig. 3a in our review (red lines at the top) you see that many previous estimates based on the observed warming / ocean heat uptake had a tendency to peak at values below 3 °C (that review is from 2008).

Instead, they discuss new ways of playing around with the aerosol judge factor needed to explain why 20th - century warming is about half of the warming expected for increased in GHGs; and then expand their list of fudge factors to include smaller volcanos, stratospheric water vapor (published with no estimate of uncertainty for the predicted change in Ts), transfer of heat to the deeper ocean (where changes in heat content are hard to accurately measure), etc..

If we assume there was less warming of the ocean than the record shows, then the ECS estimate would be slightly lower.

By comparing modelled and observed changes in such indices, which include the global mean surface temperature, the land - ocean temperature contrast, the temperature contrast between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle in temperature over land and the mean meridional temperature gradient in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.

As for sea temperatures, they are less significant for analyzing «global warming» than estimated total ocean heat content.

That leads to the IPCC conclusion that it is «very likely» that anthropogenic factors have «made a substantial contribution to upper ocean warming» using a method independent of observation estimates of the value of individual fluxes.

While these three types of measurements together suggest that our estimates of northern hemisphere ocean warming are about right, a different story emerged for down south.

The team estimate that the extent of warming in the southern hemisphere oceans since 1970 could be more than twice what has been inferred from the limited direct measurements we have for this region.

«Currently, scientists estimate the oceans absorb more than 90 percent of the heat trapped by greenhouse gases, and we attribute the global warming to anthropogenic (human - produced) causes.»

We have estimated an increase of 24 X 10 ^ 22 J repre - senting a volume mean warming of 0.09 C of the 0 — 2000 m layer of the World Ocean.

Surface warming / ocean warming: «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus» «Assessing the impact of satellite - based observations in sea surface temperature trends»

Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric science at Texas A&M University, estimates that the U.S. has as many as 2,000 scientists who study global warming and its effects on the atmosphere, oceans, ecology, and other scientific fields.

Lyman and colleagues combined different ocean monitoring groups» data sets, taking into account different sources of bias and uncertainty — due to researchers using different instruments, the lack of instrument coverage in the ocean, and different ways of analyzing data used among research groups — and put forth a warming rate estimate for the upper ocean that it is more useful in climate models.

Adding it all up, scientists estimate the total amount of heat warming the oceans, land, and atmosphere and melting the ice is the equivalent of four Hiroshima atomic bombs worth every second.

Ocean warming: «Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&rOcean warming: «Assessing recent warming using instrumentally homogeneous sea surface temperature records» «Tracking ocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&rocean heat uptake during the surface warming hiatus» «A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&rocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&rocean heat content estimates and climate change» «Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006&rocean structure since 2006»

We assess the heat content change from both of the long time series (0 to 700 m layer and the 1961 to 2003 period) to be 8.11 ± 0.74 × 1022 J, corresponding to an average warming of 0.1 °C or 0.14 ± 0.04 W m — 2, and conclude that the available heat content estimates from 1961 to 2003 show a significant increasing trend in ocean heat content.

Climate models based on increases in man - made greenhouse gases predict an increase in ocean warming that is similar to the new model's estimate.

Now if you can figure out how much of the warming is due to CO2 and how much is due to longer term natural ocean «sloshing» around, then you can come up with an educated estimate of impact due to CO2.

In short, the TCR is an estimate of how much global surface temperatures will warm immediately, without needing to consider factors like the thermal inertia of the oceans.

The latest estimates for sea level rise cited by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are based largely on the melting of nonpolar glaciers and the expansion of warmer ocean waters.

The rate of ocean warming worldwide has nearly doubled since 1994 and is greater than early estimates, findings of a new study revealed.

«Estimating changes in global temperature since the pre-industrial period» «A reassessment of temperature variations and trends from global reanalyses and monthly surface climatological datasets» «Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «Early onset of industrial - era warming across the oceans and continentsWarming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis» «Early onset of industrial - era warming across the oceans and continentswarming across the oceans and continents»

Chance that increased GHGs are expected to lead to warming on the scale of the observed warming: this requires estimates of climate sensitivity, ocean heat uptake, etc., but I would think that basic theory suggests that increased GHGs could be responsible for much more than the observed warming.

J. T. Fasullo, R. S. Nerem & B. Hamlington Scientific Reports 6, Article number: 31245 (2016) doi: 10.1038 / srep31245 Download Citation Climate and Earth system modellingProjection and prediction Received: 13 April 2016 Accepted: 15 July 2016 Published online: 10 August 2016 Erratum: 10 November 2016 Updated online 10 November 2016 Abstract Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time.

[36][37] Estimates vary for when the last time the Arctic was ice free: 65 million years ago when fossils indicate that plants existed there to as few as 5,500 years ago; ice and ocean cores going back 8000 years to the last warm period or 125,000 during the last intraglacial period.

«In recent years, from 2004 to 2011, while the upper ocean is not warming, the ocean continues to absorb heat at depth (e.g., Levitus et al. 2012; von Schuckman and Le Traon 2011), here estimated at a rate of 0.56 W m - 2 when integrating over 0 — 1800 m.»

Abstract: «Global mean sea level rise estimated from satellite altimetry provides a strong constraint on climate variability and change and is expected to accelerate as the rates of both ocean warming and cryospheric mass loss increase over time.

Since ARGO measurements started in 2003 the first estimate in 2008 showed slight upper ocean cooling; the corrected and extended estimate shows around 2 x10 ^ 22 Joules warming = around 0.02 C (0 - 700m)

As of now the consensus estimate of ocean warming is total basin up by 0.02 C per decade.

And that estimate was based on the idea that ocean warming and acidification will stay at current rates.

The revised estimate is an important update for scientists studying how the world's oceans will respond to a warming climate.

Add in the fact that the thickness of the ice, which is much harder to measure, is estimated to have fallen by half since 1979, when satellite records began, and there is probably less ice floating on the Arctic Ocean now than at any time since a particularly warm period 8,000 years ago, soon after the last ice age.