I have my own theory on that point which I've expressed in my earlier articles so that it may be possible to use the more recently discovered decadal
oceanic oscillations as a diagnostic tool but this article is about weather so I will leave the oceans to one side in this article.
Over at the TAV blog, I saw
the oceanic oscillations as being similar to a similar inductive - capactive tank as expressed by Ruhroh.
Not exact matches
Spectral analyses suggested that the reconstructed annual mean temperature variation may be related to large - scale atmospheric —
oceanic variability such
as the solar activity, Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) and El Niño — Southern
Oscillation (ENSO).
Several factors can have a large impact on short - term temperatures, such
as oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) or the 11 - year solar cycle.
More than 95 % of the 5 yr running mean of the surface temperature change since 1850 can be replicated by an integration of the sunspot data (
as a proxy for ocean heat content), departing from the average value over the period of the sunspot record (~ 40SSN), plus the superimposition of a ~ 60 yr sinusoid representing the observed
oceanic oscillations.
I did have one question though, you seem to mention the apparent
oceanic oscillations such
as the NAO or the ENSO or PDO.
We need to be cognizant of everything from local - scale stable boundary layer micrometeorolgy and ocean unstable boundary layer turbulent processes to global
oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns such
as the Arctic
Oscillation and the Gulf Stream's seasonal evolution.
«On forced temperature changes, internal variability, and the AMO» «Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation through the last 8,000 years» «The Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation as a dominant factor of
oceanic influence on climate» «The role of Atlantic Multi-decadal
Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation in the global mean temperature variability» «The North Atlantic
Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere» «The Atlanto - Pacific multidecade
oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
oscillation and its imprint on the global temperature record» «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» «North Atlantic Multidecadal SST
Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperat
Oscillation: External forcing versus internal variability» «Forced and internal twentieth - century SST trends in the North Atlantic» «Interactive comment on «Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data» by J. Mikšovský et al.» «Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal
oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures»
For falsification we would need to observe events such
as the mid latitude jets moving poleward during a cooling
oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually negative Arctic
Oscillation throughout a period of high solar activity and a warming ocean phase.
The indicator is nevertheless sensitive to longer - term variations in surface air temperature such
as those associated with decadal and multi-decadal
oceanic oscillations.
The concatenation of cooling phases of the
oceanic oscillations argue for two (2) more decades of cooling, and if the Cheshire Cat sunspots augur cooling,
as they've done in the past, then we may cool for a century or more.
If not, why endorse «The Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation as a dominant factor of
oceanic influence on climate»?
Bear in mind that the
oceanic change is itself irregular
as witness the presence of both El Nino and La Nina episodes in both positive and negative phases of the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO).
There are also a number of effects which can have a large impact on short - term temperatures, such
as oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern
Oscillation or the 11 - year solar cycle.
It isn't, necessarily, but the concatenation of cooling phases of the
oceanic oscillations suggests that even an abrupt shift sooner than the expected decoupling might
as well be a cooling one
as a warming one.
One important feature that plays a role in these variations is the periodic change of atmospheric and
oceanic circulation patterns in the tropical Pacific region, collectively known
as El Niño — Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) variation»
Thus a decline in solar energy will have an immediate effect if it occurs at a time when the overall balance of all the
oceanic oscillations is negative
as now (2007 to date) when the end of solar cycle 23 is significantly delayed and the late start of cycle 24 suggests a weaker cycle than we have had for some time.
The
oceanic oscillations dominated the 20th Century with a spotted sun dogging them, and driving them; if this new variability of the sunspots presage global cooling,
as it did in the Maunder, we may cool for a century or more.
Natural factors such
as the Sun (84 papers), multi-decadal
oceanic - atmospheric
oscillations such
as the NAO, AMO / PDO, ENSO (31 papers), decadal - scale cloud cover variations, and internal variability in general have exerted a significant influence on weather and climate changes during both the past and present.
For true falsification we would need to observe events such
as the mid latitude jets moving poleward during a cooling
oceanic phase and a period of quiet sun or the ITCZ moving northward whilst the two jets moved equatorward or the stratosphere, troposphere and upper atmosphere all warming or cooling in tandem or perhaps an unusually powerful Arctic
Oscillation throughout a period of high solar turbulence and a warming ocean phase.
«On the basis of the information in the public domain about solar cycles and the positive PDO it should have been blatantly obvious that the world would warm up without the need to speculate on a contribution from CO2 or anything else... I find Mr. [Alec] Rawls very helpful in illustrating the effect of time lags between solar input and
oceanic oscillations...
As Mr. Rawls points out...
The presence of the longer - term effects on Australian rainfall from
oceanic shifts, such
as the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation (PDO) and Interdecadal Pacific
Oscillation (IPO), make the analysis of this situation, and the teasing out of the AGW influence, a complex matter.
I will certainly be making the point about the downturn in temperatures worldwide, and their connection with natural processes such
as the major
oceanic oscillations.
Several factors can have a large impact on short - term temperatures, such
as oceanic cycles like the El Niño Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) or the 11 - year solar cycle.
The models heavily relied upon by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had not projected this multidecadal stasis in «global warming»; nor (until trained ex post facto) the fall in TS from 1940 - 1975; nor 50 years» cooling in Antarctica (Doran et al., 2002) and the Arctic (Soon, 2005); nor the absence of ocean warming since 2003 (Lyman et al., 2006; Gouretski & Koltermann, 2007); nor the onset, duration, or intensity of the Madden - Julian intraseasonal
oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20
oscillation, the Quasi-Biennial
Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20
Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, El Nino / La Nina
oscillations, the Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20
Oscillation, or the Pacific Decadal
Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20
Oscillation that has recently transited from its warming to its cooling phase (
oceanic oscillations which, on their own, may account for all of the observed warmings and coolings over the past half - century: Tsoniset al., 2007); nor the magnitude nor duration of multi-century events such
as the Mediaeval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age; nor the cessation since 2000 of the previously - observed growth in atmospheric methane concentration (IPCC, 2007); nor the active 2004 hurricane season; nor the inactive subsequent seasons; nor the UK flooding of 2007 (the Met Office had forecast a summer of prolonged droughts only six weeks previously); nor the solar Grand Maximum of the past 70 years, during which the Sun was more active, for longer, than at almost any similar period in the past 11,400 years (Hathaway, 2004; Solankiet al., 2005); nor the consequent surface «global warming» on Mars, Jupiter, Neptune's largest moon, and even distant Pluto; nor the eerily - continuing 2006 solar minimum; nor the consequent, precipitate decline of ~ 0.8 °C in TS from January 2007 to May 2008 that has canceled out almost all of the observed warming of the 20th century.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NPG.htm I am reasonably confident that the «gateways», once I get down to do some writing, may be considered
as an important contributor to the
oceanic oscillations.
This would arguably be the consequence of all the various forcings, plus various feedbacks, plus various internal variabilities such
as oceanic oscillations, plus external effects such
as possibly solar magnetism and GCR's.