Not exact matches
The paper... offers a useful framework
for which decadal variations in the global (or northern hemisphere) may be explained via large scale modes of
oceanic variability.
It is clearly established that climate
variability affects the
oceanic content of natural and anthropogenic DIC and the air - sea flux of CO2, although the amplitude and physical processes responsible
for the changes are less well known.
In fact, they may do so more efficiently than more uniform temperature change; warming one hemisphere with respect to the other is an excellent way of pulling monsoonal circulations and
oceanic ITCZs towards the warm hemisphere (the last few years have seen numerous studies of this response, relevant
for ice ages and aerosol forcing as well as the response to high latitude internal
variability; Chiang and Bitz, 2005 is one of the first to discuss this, in the ice age context; I'll try to return to this topic in a future post.)
Requires the Climate Service Program to: (1) analyze the effects of weather and climate on communities; (2) carry out observations, data collection, and monitoring of atmospheric and
oceanic conditions; (3) provide information and technical support to governmental efforts to assess and respond to climate
variability and change; (4) develop systems
for the management and dissemination of data; (5) conduct research to improve forecasting and understanding of weather and climate
variability and change and its effects on communities; and (6) develop tools to facilitate the use of climate information by local and regional stakeholders.
Combining the limitations of this data with the (interannual)
variability in atmospheric and
oceanic conditions between now and September 2008 leaves a wide range of scenarios open
for how sea ice conditions may develop throughout the summer.
The
oceanic oscillations dominated the 20th Century with a spotted sun dogging them, and driving them; if this new
variability of the sunspots presage global cooling, as it did in the Maunder, we may cool
for a century or more.
The most likely candidate
for that climatic variable force that comes to mind is solar
variability (because I can think of no other force that can change or reverse in a different trend often enough, and quick enough to account
for the historical climatic record) and the primary and secondary effects associated with this solar
variability which I feel are a significant player in glacial / inter-glacial cycles, counter climatic trends when taken into consideration with these factors which are, land / ocean arrangements, mean land elevation, mean magnetic field strength of the earth (magnetic excursions), the mean state of the climate (average global temperature), the initial state of the earth's climate (how close to interglacial - glacial threshold condition it is) the state of random terrestrial (violent volcanic eruption, or a random atmospheric circulation /
oceanic pattern that feeds upon itself possibly) / extra terrestrial events (super-nova in vicinity of earth or a random impact) along with Milankovitch Cycles.
Additionally, such an observing system, by measuring the temporal and spatial
variability of the AMOC
for approximately a decade, would provide essential ground truth to AMOC model estimates and would also yield insight into whether AMOC changes or other atmospheric /
oceanic variability have the dominant impact on interannual sea surface temperature (SST)
variability.
In the meantime, their results have tentatively breathed a small hint of life back into the climate models, basically buying them a bit more time — time
for either the observed temperatures to start rising rapidly as current models expect, or, time
for the modelers to try to fix / improve cloud processes,
oceanic processes, and other process of
variability (both natural and anthropogenic) that lie behind what would be the clearly overheated projections.
Despite evidence
for a growing sink when globally integrated (Khatiwala et al. 2009, 2013; Ciais et al. 2013; DeVries 2014), this
variability, combined with sparse sampling, means that it is not yet possible to directly confirm from surface observations that long - term growth in the
oceanic sink is occurring.
«Even if it (the solar effect) is only 0.1 C over a solar cycle and a little more over a 500 year period from LIA to date then that's a good enough starting point
for my NCM because all such solar
variability needs to do is alter the size, position and intensity of the polar high pressure cells against an opposing force from
oceanic variability.
Even if it is only 0.1 C over a solar cycle and a little more over a 500 year period from LIA to date then that's a good enough starting point
for my NCM because all such solar
variability needs to do is alter the size, position and intensity of the polar high pressure cells against an opposing force from
oceanic variability.
Given these and other misrepresentations of natural
oceanic variability on decadal scales (e.g., Zhang and McPhaden 2006), a role
for natural causes of at least some of the recent
oceanic warming should not be ruled out.»
The comment to Table 2 notes: «In general, these historical gauges were designed to monitor the sea level
variability caused by El Niño and shorter - term
oceanic fluctuations rather than long - term sea level change,
for which a high level of precision and datum control is required.»
One major problem with both F&R as well as K. et al is that they fail to adjust the IPCC's emissions scenarios
for the associated
variability of uptakes of atmospheric CO2 by the world's
oceanic and terrestrial Biota; as I have shown (Curtin 2009 at my website), along with Knorr (2009), the more the emissions, the greater the biotic uptake, pace IPCC.